In which the pond largely ignores the reptiles to enjoy some FAFA tariff moments ...

 

Beyond the valley of the completely predictable this day in the lizard Oz, as the reptiles seized on the recent heatwave to mount an attack on renewables and such like ...

"Mildly hot day"? 

What happened to reptile pride in Australia's ability to break records? 

Elsewhere media outfits celebrated the way we were top of the world ma, albeit briefly ...

Yeah, Sydney airport top of the world ma, and spring records broken, but as usual, the reptiles took the completely wrong lesson from recent events ...

See Donna Lu in The Graudian on Tuesday for matters reptiles never ever contemplate, Why is western Sydney so much hotter than the eastern suburbs and what can be done to make summer more bearable?

Inter alia:

Will the extreme heat get worse?
The frequency and severity of extreme heatwaves are predicted to worsen due to the climate crisis. 2021 modelling projected that western Sydney and the Hawkesbury would experience an additional 10 to 20 days hotter than 35C annually by 2070.
In a study submitted for publication to the peer-reviewed journal Weather and Climate Extremes, Pfautsch’s analysis of western Sydney climate records between 2000 and 2020 suggests that in a worst-case scenario, western Sydney could have 160 days of temperatures exceeding 35C. “By 2060, you could have four months of consecutive day after day at or above 35C,” he says. “It’s just really scary. That’s only 35 years away.”
The analysis also showed that the likelihood of 40C days increased exponentially as the number of 35C days rose. “That’s why it’s so important we try everything in our arsenal to build cooler cities,” he says.
Is anything being done to adapt to the extreme heat?
The window of opportunity to take action to prevent extreme heat events has long passed, Pfautsch says. “It should have happened 20 years ago. Now all we can do to really keep people safe – because they die from heat – is to adapt.”
Increasing canopy cover from trees and good irrigation plays a role, Pignatta says, as does improving energy efficiency in buildings.
“More greening is not a ‘nice to have’ any more, it’s a must have,” Pfautsch says. “You can’t survive without it.”
Increasingly, councils and developers are also turning to climate-responsive urban design. Actions include intentionally creating shade using buildings, changing surfaces to lighter colours and more reflective materials, putting green roofs on high rise apartments, and orienting buildings and streets so they can be passively ventilated by wind.
“We see developers starting to take up the construction of [new suburbs] … where wind direction is taken into account to help blow the hot air out of these settlements as quickly as possible,” Pfautsch says.
In 2022, the Western Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils launched Cool Suburbs, an evidence-backed tool for design that takes heat resilience into account. It has already been used to assess planning projects in the City of Sydney and City of Blacktown, Pfautsch says.

As for the rest of the reptile rabble this day, the pond is inclined to pass ...

Petulant Peta had made her appearance by mingling in what's allegedly the news side of the page,  rabbiting on about China - an automatic pass - while the lizard Oz editorialist carried on about renewables and such like in the far right commentary section.

As for the ongoing genocide in Gaza, the pond would rather be reading The Conversation, Ceasefires are not a panacea. Here are 4 reasons to be concerned about the Israel-Hezbollah deal

Inter alia, Marika Sosnowski asked in her fourth reason:

4. What about Gaza?

Netanyahu has said the ceasefire will enable Israel to focus its efforts on Hamas fighters in Gaza and his top security concern, Iran.

Other officials have called the ceasefire “a game-changer” that would show Hamas that the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon were de–linked.

Hezbollah had previously insisted it would not agree to a ceasefire until the war in Gaza ended. This new deal presumes this condition has been dropped.

Some have suggested a ceasefire with Hezbollah may put additional pressure on Hamas to agree to a deal with Israel regarding the release of the remaining Israeli hostages it holds.

However, this overlooks the fact Hamas has been willing to make a ceasefire deal in the past, while the Israeli government has stymied negotiations by adding new terms at the last minute.

Further, Qatar was frustrated to such a degree by an “unwillingness to engage” and “lack of good faith” from both sides, it recently withdrew as a mediator between the parties.

The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah should not take attention away from the fighting in Gaza, nor the horrific and dire humanitarian situation there.

It remains to be seen how the war in Gaza will play out. Will Israel move forward with a more formal occupation of parts of the enclave, as some have suggested? Or will the ceasefire with Hezbollah serve to isolate Hamas to the extent it feels it has even less to lose than it – and the Palestinians – already have?

Who knows? All the pond knows is that you won't find an answer in the lizard Oz. 

What you will find is a yearning and a hoping that Benji will escape his day in court ...

As for recent legislation, it's remarkable how limited the reptiles' attention span has become. How easily matters slip off the reptile radar, meaning the pond had to turn to the infallible Pope for a comment:

That lady justice statue thingie sure has a lot of work to do ...

Meanwhile, the pond was still wanting to live out its FAFO moments, and luckily the other day the corporeal Glenda Korporaal broke from the reptile ranks to offer Trump’s tariffs time bomb a destructive economic weapon, While there have been many attempts to calculate what tariffs on China would do to Australia, his announcement to also hit friendly nations Canada and Mexico is a sign of what is to come.

That's more like it, and the reptiles began with a FAFO image, New York Stock Exchange traders on Tuesday as news came through Donald Trump intends to put tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports. Picture: Getty Images

Dear sweet long absent lord, the AI at work in what was once a proud graphics department is truly a gift from Santa ...

If only the reptiles had an immortal Rowe to hand ...

And so to Glenda's FAFO commentary, dedicated to the new tariff in town ...

Donald Trump’s latest threats posted on his social media network, Truth Social, to impose tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada are a stark reminder of the uncertainty ahead for the global economy as he retakes the White House next year.

While there have been many attempts to calculate what his threatened tariffs on China will mean for Australia, this week’s announcement about his plans to start his presidency hitting China with 10 per cent tariffs and friendly nations – Canada and Mexico – with 25 per cent tariffs on all imports is a sign that uncertainty will be the norm over the next four years.

The net effect – at least for the foreseeable future – will be lower growth as companies around the world defer big investment calls until they get more certainty.

While there are differing views about what Trump is threatening and what he will actually do, Goldman Sachs’ chief Australian economist Andrew Boak is warning that the impact of Trump’s threats and unpredictable behaviour will be negative for economic growth in Australia.

Oh dear, alarums and warnings and a thoroughly dated snap, Donald Trump with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the White House in 2017. Picture: AFP

There was simply no consoling Glenda or her advisors. Faux Noise and News Corp had had their FA moment, and now she was having her FO moment:

“There is a lot of uncertainty about Trump’s trade policy, let alone its actual impact,” he says.

He argues that the negative fallout for Australia will come less from any direct impact of the Trump tariffs – whatever they end up being – on trade and more from impact of global uncertainty.

Either way, the uncertainty of a Trump presidency, he argues, will provide a brake on Australia’s economic growth at a time when it is already weak.

Goldman Sachs is estimating that an average 20 per cent rise in US tariffs on imports from China, as well as tariffs on car imports from Mexico and Europe, would slice some 40 basis points off global economic growth.

When it comes to Australia, it halves the negative expectation, to some 20 basis points, on the belief that Chinese policy makers will seek to offset the impact of the tariffs on their local economy with stimulatory policies. But the impact will still be a headwind for the Australian economy.

“You are going to see businesses pull back on investment and employment against the backdrop of US and global trade policy,” Boak told The Australian.

The headwind to growth, he points out, comes at a time when the Australian economy is already very weak, expected to grow at only 1.8 per cent in 2025.

Australia has very little direct exposure to the Canadian and Mexican economies which means whatever tariffs Trump imposes on these countries will have limited direct impact here.

“But even if the tariffs (on Mexico and Canada) are not implemented, the uncertainty from these kinds of announcements is damaging to confidence and to growth and investment decisions,” Boak says.

The China that consternated petulant Peta this day scored a snap, or at least a mention, Beijing has responded to Donald Trump’s tariff pledge saying that “no one will win a trade war”. Picture: AFP

A container ship? That's the best the reptiles could offer to console the inconsolable Glenda, deep into FAFO?

“Overall, this reinforces our broader view that uncertainty around trade policy will mean a weaker global backdrop compounding the risks of already very weak domestic economic momentum,” he said.

It comes at a time when Australian GDP growth is already at a 32-year low excluding the impact of Covid lockdowns.

Boak says Goldman Sachs’ base case scenario of how the local economy will be affected by Trump’s tariffs has not been changed by recent announcements.

This is partly due to expectations that Trump’s threatened tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico are unlikely to be implemented in the form announced.

On the other side, expectations are now being baked into forecasts that actual tariffs imposed on goods from China will be higher than the 10 per cent announced this week – potentially up to 20 per cent – but unlikely to reach the threatened 60 per cent.

The other impact of the proposed tariffs being assessed is what it means for inflation.

Boak argues that while the tariffs could be inflationary, inflation is easing back with the real concern for Australia from Trump’s trade policies being the negative impact on economic growth, rather than inflation.

Other commentators have pointed out that while the Australian economy will be harmed by whatever tariffs the US puts on goods from China, the impact will be far less than it might have been a few years ago when China was far more exposed to US market for its exports.

Since the last Trump presidency, China has since diversified its trade away from the US towards other markets including the Southeast Asian region.

Boak argues that the weaker growth impact for Australia as a result of Trump’s actions will allow the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates faster than otherwise- possibly as early as next February.

That could be an unexpected bonus for Australia – but only because our economy will be weakened.

The director of the Australia China Relations Institute at Sydney’s UTS, James Laurenceson, takes a similar view on the uncertainty about what Trump will actually do.

“It’s not clear whether Trump is proposing that on day one, (whether) US tariffs on China will go from their current average level of 20 per cent to 30 per cent, or to 70 per cent from the 60 per cent that he’s previously mooted,” he told the Australian.

He argues that the threat of another “additional” 10 per cent tariff on US imports from China, of itself, won’t have much direct impact on the Australian economy.

But he argues that it will put pressure on Australia’s political relationship with the US.

He argues that it is in Australia’s national interests for Canberra to come out in opposition to Trump’s proposals, particularly when Trump’s threat to put 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico comes in retaliation for issues unrelated to trade, such as illegal migration and drug trafficking.

“How Trump will react to that is anyone’s guess,” he argues. “But what will be inevitable is that the gap between Canberra and Washington on economic, foreign, and strategic policy, which Foreign Minister Wong and Treasurer Chalmers tell us are increasingly inseparable, will grow.”

Offsetting those concerns is the fact that US sharemarkets have taken off on the news of the Trump election given his deregulatory approach and his “drill, baby drill”, “let her rip” approach to energy and the broader economy.

While that has been good for investors in the short term, the concern is that the implications of Trump’s aggressive and unpredictable behaviour could start to take the shine off the rally as his actions affect business decisions which flow onto Australia as a trade exposed country.

For Australia, which is largely a price taker in the global trade and business world, it will mean continued uncertainty, watching for the fallout from Trump’s policies on our economy with political and business leaders having to navigate their way through a difficult and less unpredictable world.

The pond had only one minor, petulant quibble. 

Navigate their way through a less unpredictable world?

Surely the FAFO suffering Glenda meant to scribble 'navigate their way through a horrendous, much more unpredictable world' ... or perhaps she was confused in her yearning to be able to navigate her way through a predictable world ...

Whatever, it's enough to celebrate the word of the year ...

Take a bow Cory ... though please remember to thank Faux Noise and News Corp for helping making it so ...

Apropos of all that, Glenn Dyer and Bernard Keane in Crikey offered Trump’s tariffs promise chaos — and Australia’s investments are in the firing line, Australia's Future Fund has more than 40% of its assets invested in the US economy, which means the damage Trump inflicts hurts us too. (paywall)

Too bad if you’re a US company, like an automobile manufacturer, reliant on imports from Mexico. Donald Trump just promised to impose a 25% tax on your supply chain, along with everything else imported from Mexico. And Canada. The fact Trump himself negotiated and signed a free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement in 2020, is apparently irrelevant. And he’s announced a 10% “just for starters” tariff on Chinese imports.

In response — even though Trump won’t be inaugurated for another two months — sharemarkets fell, but the US dollar rose (sending the Australian dollar falling further). The greenback had already risen against major currencies after Trump’s victory on November 5, and will likely appreciate every time the president-elect announces new tariffs — until markets price in the full effect of the tariff wall Trump has promised to erect around America.

Each appreciation of the dollar will further erode the competitiveness of US exports and improve the competitiveness of imports against American products — undermining the very point of Trump’s taxes. Given how little grasp he appears to have about who bears the costs of tariffs, Trump will possibly react by simply increasing tariffs further.

Along with his promise to deport every undocumented worker in the country, inflicting serious labour shortages on industries like construction and agriculture that depend on illegal immigrants for much of their workforce, and his threats to curtail the independence of the Federal Reserve, the tariffs will make for extremely uncertain times for US business — and investors in the US.

Prominent among such investors is Australia’s Future Fund. Page 61 of the Fund’s 2023-24 annual report reveals that 43% of its $229.7 billion in assets are located in America via a heavy US weighting of listed and private equity, property, infrastructure and credit. That compares to just 27% of its assets invested in Australia, and is up from 39% in 2022-23.

And so on and so FAFO forth ...

Meanwhile, for anyone still on what's left of Twitter, there was a fine WaPo story, ‘Soros of the right’ Elon Musk eyes progressive prosecutors as next target, The billionaire told advisors ahead of the election that his pro-Trump super PAC should aim at “Soros DAs” across the country. (Paywall)

Donald Trump adviser Brooke Rollins had a question for the crowd celebrating his election at his Mar-a-Lago estate earlier this month. “Where is the George Soros of the right?” she called from the stage, referring to the billionaire investor and prolific liberal donor.

To loud cheers, a younger billionaire in the audience threw his right hand into the air: Elon Musk.

Musk is being likened to Soros in Republican circles — and embracing the comparison — after he plowed more than $118 million into his pro-Trump super PAC to support the former president’s campaign. He is also planning to use Soros’s past donations as a road map to guide his own political targets.

The tech mogul told advisers shortly before the election that America PAC should challenge “Soros DAs,” referring to a cohort of progressive district attorneys across the country who received support from Soros and affiliated organizations, according to two people familiar with Musk’s plans who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.

Musk believes that prosecutors linked to Soros are too lenient on crime and directly responsible for theft and other quality-of-life issues in cities across the country, the people said. Many DAs linked to the liberal donor campaigned on platforms of criminal justice reform and were elected in the wake of the Black Lives Matter protests in 2020.

The pond can remember when the merest mention of Soros would send the GOP into abject hysteria, but now? 

Musk is being likened to Soros in Republican circles — and embracing the comparison.

Meanwhile, over at the NY Times, China Has a New Playbook to Counter Trump: ‘Supply Chain Warfare’ A series of swipes at American companies show how China could take the initiative in a new trade war, using its economic dominance to exact pain. (Paywall)

In the world of cheap drones, Skydio was the great American hope. Its autonomous flying machines gave the U.S. defense and police agencies an alternative to Chinese manufacturers, free from the security concerns tied to dependence on Chinese supply chains.

But Skydio’s vulnerabilities came into sharp focus days before the U.S. presidential election, when the Chinese authorities imposed sanctions and severed the company’s access to essential battery supplies.

Overnight, the San Mateo, Calif.-based Skydio, the largest American maker of drones, scrambled to find new suppliers. The move slowed Skydio’s deliveries to its customers, which include the U.S. military.

“This is an attack on Skydio, but it’s also an attack on you,” Adam Bry, the chief executive, told customers.

Behind the move was a message from China’s leaders to Donald J. Trump, who would go on to win the election with a promise of new China sanctions and tariffs: Hit us and we’ll strike back harder.

From the campaign trail to his cabinet appointments, Mr. Trump has made it clear that he believes a confrontation with China over trade and technology is inevitable. In the first Trump administration, the Chinese government took mostly symbolic and equivalent measures after U.S. tariffs and trade restrictions. This time, China is poised to escalate its responses, experts say, and could aim aggressive and targeted countermeasures at American companies.

“During Trade War 1.0, Beijing was fairly careful to meet the tariffs that the U.S. put in place,” said Jude Blanchette, a China scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Now they are signaling their tolerance for accepting and dishing out pain,” he said. “It’s clear for political reasons that Beijing is not willing to stand by and watch as significant new waves of tariffs come in.”

China has had time to prepare. During Mr. Trump’s first term, officials in Beijing began drafting laws that mirror U.S. tactics, allowing them to create blacklists and impose sanctions on American companies, cutting them off from critical resources. The goal has been to use China’s status as the world’s factory floor to exact punishment.

Since 2019, China has created an “unreliable entity list” to penalize companies that undermine national interests, introduced rules to punish firms that comply with U.S. restrictions on Chinese entities and expanded its export-control laws. The broader reach of these laws enables Beijing to potentially choke global access to critical materials like rare earths and lithium — essential components in everything from smartphones to electric vehicles.

The new tools are part of what one Communist Party publication described as an effort to “provide legal support for countering hegemonism and power politics and safeguarding the interests of the country and the people.”

And so on ... but luckily mugs have been made available for mugs in search of consolation ...

Please accept the pond's concepts of condolences in these troubled times ... 

And tomorrow the pond will do better in its herpetology studies, with the hole in the bucket man certain to entertain. All can gather at his table for some amiable dining ...