King Donald has finally got what he worked so diligently to achieve.
International pariah state status.
And domestically things are a little on the nose.
Even gutter dwellers of the Tim Pool kind are breaking away ... MAGA Pod Bros Rally Around Top Trump Official After Sudden Exit (*archive link)
Oh dear, and yet the news sounded so good in the lizard Oz ...
But the business plan seemed in some kind of trouble ...
A buck for two months? That's the level of the bait and switch that's now needed?
But, for all its many failings, the intermittent archive comes free...
Down below the news hovered the bromancer, and the pond immediately turned to him for advice and help, only to discover the proud reptile warrior was surprisingly gloomy:
The header: US and Iran locked in ‘horrible equilibrium’ with no clear path to victory: The US-Iran conflict has reached a dangerous equilibrium with Iran still controlling the Strait of Hormuz and Trump unable to achieve regime change.
The caption for the grinning, gesticulating loon: US President Donald Trump in Washington on Monday. Picture: AFP
The bromancer opened by hinting that a quagmire was in the making ...
The war is poised at an unstable, dynamic and horrible equilibrium, where the US can’t quite win, and Iran won’t quite lose.
No matter what happens from here, Trump, and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, have greatly weakened Iran.
But while the Israelis may be satisfied that they have “mown the grass”, crippling the Iranian threat for a while, Trump has not met several key objectives.
There’s no sign of regime collapse, though that can happen suddenly, or even regime alteration. The Iranian President has been humiliated, but the presidency has never been a powerful post. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, rightly considered a terrorist group by many Western nations, shows no sign of breaking. It seems to be indoctrinated at sufficient depth, like its creation Hamas, that one fallen leader is simply replaced by others.
Yet without regime change, the Iranian threat will in time simply re-emerge.
Trump has also hit the limits of US unilateralism and his own chaotic communications style. Having abused and humiliated allies, he’s now calling for their naval assistance in the dangerous business of clearing the Strait of Hormuz.
No one is volunteering, even those nations sending military resources into the region.
It may be impossible to clear the Strait without a land invasion of Iran. It’s a very narrow waterway. Any Iranian boat can lay a sea mine, any diver attach an explosive to a ship’s hull. It may be possible to suppress Iranian missile firing, though the US hasn’t yet achieved that. It’s impossible to suppress drones, which can easily be fired off the back of a truck.
The reptiles did their best to inspire hope in the bromancer, Liberia-flagged tanker Shenlong Suezmax, carrying crude oil from Saudi Arabia, in Mumbai, India, last week. Picture: AP
But these days oils ain't oils ...
One of Trump’s greatest strengths is his brazenness. He indicated a week ago that he could declare victory and go home. No one is better able to turn on a dime than Trump. But if he goes home while Iran still has the Strait of Hormuz shut, and perhaps before it even agrees to a ceasefire, that would be, notwithstanding the damage it’s taken, a significant win for Iran’s theocratic, totalitarian and blood-soaked regime.
There are a few other aspects of the equation which have got too little attention. The US and Israel have destroyed most of Iran’s conventional military forces, its navy and air force, much of its command structure, its industrial/military facilities and much of its missile stock and missile production facilities.
That’s hugely significant. But here is a key element of the jigsaw missing from most analysis. Iran has not used its conventional military forces much at all in its tremendous terror, destabilisation and proxy military campaigns.
The Iranian military and political leadership – in complete contrast to the Australian Defence establishment – understand profoundly the power of asymmetric warfare.
Asymmetric warfare is undertaken by weaker powers against stronger powers. Drones are a quintessential asymmetric weapon. So is terrorism. So are proxy militias. So is cyber warfare.
The reptiles decided to parrot King Donald's talking points...
US President Donald Trump has warned the United States is “locked and loaded” to destroy Iran’s key oil export hub on Kharg Island. Trump said the military could wipe out the facility “on five minutes’ notice” if he decided to give the order. The president described the island as Iran’s “crown jewel” and one of the regime’s most valuable strategic assets. Kharg Island handles the vast majority of Iran’s oil exports and is central to the country’s energy industry. US forces previously struck military targets on the island but deliberately avoided destroying the oil infrastructure.
Somebody forgot to tell the bromancer he should have sounded locked and loaded ...
All these things don’t cost much money, certainly compared with aircraft carriers and the like. They will be relatively easy for Iran to rebuild.
Israel has been shocked at how heavily the Shia terrorist militia Hezbollah has rearmed itself in Lebanon. Israel had inflicted massive damage on Hezbollah. The elimination of the Syrian regime was thought to have diminished if not eliminated Hezbollah’s resupply lines. The Lebanese state was supposedly newly empowered to disarm Hezbollah. There was a formal ceasefire and commitments made by Hezbollah about demilitarising.
Yet in the current conflict, Hezbollah initiated hostilities with Israel and is still firing rockets, drones, artillery and other projectiles into northern Israel, despite massive, renewed conventional military effort by Jerusalem.
The loyalty of the Iranian proxies to the mullahs in this conflict has been a shock for Western military planners. The Houthis are active again in Yemen, pro-Iranian forces are active again in Iraq. Pro-Iranian terror attacks have occurred again in the US.
This doesn’t mean Trump’s action was futile, or even unnecessary. It does show that with a determined enemy there are very few “short” wars and no predictable or guaranteed outcomes.
The other objective Trump seems unlikely to meet is definitively ending Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has 400kg of uranium enriched to 60 per cent, which is nearly weapons grade. Most of it seems to be stored near Isfahan. If there’s no regime change, the only guarantee for the US would be for special forces to go in physically and take the uranium out. That would be unbelievably dangerous.
Trump could alternatively order his forces to take Kharg Island, through which Iran gets 90 per cent of its income. But this would be a big, dangerous ground operation, which the US public is completely unprepared for.
The US could bomb Iranian electricity and other civilian infrastructure. But that inflicts a terrible human toll, doesn’t guarantee regime change and could generate millions of refugees.
The likeliest outcome may be that Washington and Tehran, on back channels, negotiate a ceasefire, even without the achievement of many US strategic aims.
No clamouring for a dinkum Oz ship to head off to the gulf and join in the action? No call to arms, no celebration of AUKUS?
What on earth has gone wrong with the bromancer?
Sadly the bro ignored his eternal war on China - not one mention of China in his piece! - so allow the pond to help out.
FULL OF WIND
President Donald Trump reignited one of his favorite grievances, and the Irish prime minister could barely stifle his laughter at the absurdity. (*archive link)
In an Oval Office appearance to commemorate St. Patrick’s Day, Trump took a question from a British reporter on U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s hesitation to fully support Trump’s war in Iran with the U.K.’s entire military might.
The president said he was disappointed with Starmer before going on an unintelligible rant about energy and wind turbines, which he constantly refers to as windmills.
“Windmills all over the country, destroying those gorgeous Scottish fields,” Trump said, reiterating his longtime hatred.
The president then repeated his lie that China, by and large, the world’s largest producer and user of wind energy, doesn’t use windmills.
“Windmills, which don’t work, uh, they’re tremendously expensive, and the best testament to that is the windmills are made in China, but China doesn’t use them,” Trump complained.
And so on and on, and that reminded the pond of another angle ...
Amid global oil and gas disruptions, China stands prepared for the electrostate era.
By Jason Bordoff, a columnist at Foreign Policy
Yet over the longer term, there are at least three reasons China may emerge as a surprising beneficiary.
First, for more than two decades Beijing has pursued an energy security strategy designed precisely for moments like this. At its core is electrification: shifting more of the economy away from direct oil and gas consumption and thereby reducing exposure to volatile oil and gas markets prone to geopolitical disruption.
More than 30 percent of China’s final energy consumption now comes from electricity, compared with just over 20 percent globally. More than half of the cars sold in China are electric, the result of deliberate policies aimed as much at energy security as emissions reduction. The International Energy Agency estimates China has avoided 1.2 million barrels per day of oil demand growth since 2019 and now projects Chinese oil demand will peak in 2027, two years earlier than previously expected.
Beijing has also worked to generate as much of its electricity as possible from domestic sources. Coal and renewables dominate the power mix, while nearly all electricity demand growth in 2024 was met by clean sources, led by solar and wind. Half of all nuclear reactors under construction worldwide are in China. Although the country imports natural gas, only a modest share is used for power generation. In the event of prolonged LNG disruptions, China can lean more heavily on domestic sources of energy such as coal to bridge the gap.
China would still feel the sting of a global oil shock, of course. But its push to become an electrostate—rather than doubling down on crude production—has reduced its exposure. The United States may be the world’s largest oil producer and a major net exporter, yet because oil is priced globally, American consumers feel the pain at the pump just the same. The most durable hedge against oil shocks is to consume less oil, not merely to produce more.
That took care of Dame Slap celebrating capitalism ...
All this talk of sacking people with heart and humanity can’t hide the fact Cannon-Brookes is – at heart – a brutal capitalist. And there’s no shame in that.
By Janet Albrechtsen
Columnist
It's not just sacking the planet that she loves, she loves all sorts of sackings, and brutalism of the most brutal kind.
And these pearls of wisdom could drop into the void ... the pond will accept no wannabe Dame Groan substitutes.
With the RBA’s credibility in tatters after a string of poor decisions and economic calls during the past few years, their hand was forced.
By David Pearl
If the pond wants that sort of commentary, it rarely finds the need to go beyond the infallible Pope ...
And the pond is by now well over the Canavan caravan, and so well over ancient Troy trying to pump up the hagiographical volume...
What matters is not Canavan’s past but the future of the Nationals and the Coalition. The upshot is that Canavan should not be underestimated.
By Troy Bramston
Senior Writer
The pond knows from bitter experience that there's nothing worse than some fundamentalist religious nutter deciding to turn into an atheist nutter, unless it's the process in reverse - atheist turns Opus Dei - and ditto silly young men attracted to communism, who in later days turn into loons of the "coals that batter" Canavan caravan kind.
See Emeritus chairman Rupert for how that plays ... how easy it is to toss off talk of being young Red Rupert, and then in baleful older age, don the black shirt and red MAGA cap, especially if there's a buck in the offing and blood to sell to a vampire...
Never mind, that diligent weeding and sorting left room for "Ned's" natter to join the bromancer blathering about the war...
The header posing an enormously silly couple of questions: Trump as wartime President – is he fit for purpose? Having attacked Iran with no reference to allies, Trump now needs everybody’s help. Suddenly, he is desperate for an allied coalition. Who would have believed?
The caption for the orange clown: US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before boarding Marine One. Picture: Brendan Smialowski / AFP
Only in the hive mind could you find a reptile still wondering if King Donald was fit for purpose ...
Okay, the pond needs some help to get through this modest sojourn with "Ned, because he wasjust as gloomy as the bromancer.
On the upside, "Ned" kept this Everest climb to a seemly four minute amble up a modest hill, stuffing it full of banal observations and laughable billy goat butts of the "final judgments still await" kind ...
The assumption that many commentators made at the start, myself included, is that Trump at some stage would declare a victory and evacuate the field. But the Iranian regime has made that option far more complicated. Trump is now trapped since this conflict has evolved into two related wars.
The first war has proceeded well in a military sense, given large-scale destruction of Iran’s military and naval capacity that must leave a diminished regime – but Trump’s blunder was his pledge of regime change from the air, an idea historically improbable and ignorant of the nature of the regime and of Iranian identity.
Trump told the regime’s military to “lay down your weapons” or “face certain death”. Final judgments still await, but this bravado seems to have misunderstood the fanatical ideology and structural power of the regime. Into the third week the regime is not only still alive and functioning but is spreading chaos and destruction, attacking the Gulf states and effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz – squeezing global energy supplies, driving up prices and threatening the world economy.
The reptiles flung in a standard snap of the King ...President Donald Trump waves as he boards Air Force One. Picture: Juloa Demaree / AP Photo.
The pond had passed up several chances to celebrate the king, but couldn't resist any longer ...
The Wall Street Journal reported on March 13 that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine warned the President in several briefings before the war that a US attack could prompt Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz and possibly deploy mines, drones and missiles to disrupt the world’s vital shipping corridor.
Yet Trump, while acknowledging the risk, said Iran would likely be forced to capitulate before such a decision and, even if Iran tried, the US military could handle it. This seems to reflect the ignorant and cavalier attitude of Trump towards his most important war decision as President. It is like his tariff policy – Trump acts without thinking issues through.
It raises the question: to what extent has Trump undermined US national security decision-making? America risks living with a wartime President who lacks the emotional and intellectual strengths for the task.
The reptiles slipped in a snap of the general with a surprisingly modest array of scrambled eggs for decor ... Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine
What about the real warrior? Couldn't the reptiles rustle up a snap of their onetime Faux Noise kissing cousin?
At least "Ned" took note of China in his piece ...
How to do this? Well, Trump doesn’t really know.
Last week Trump said “We’ve won.” Yet he now battles to thwart a global energy crisis. Having accepted that he must free up the strait, the President can hardly declare victory and head to the exit with the world facing an oil shortage, higher inflation and weaker economic growth.
This is turning into a battle of US power versus Iran’s endurance. The regime’s tactic is to impose such political pain on Trump that he cracks under the pressure. It targets Trump’s vulnerability: that he lacks the temperament or the character to fight for the long haul.
Trump’s bravado never stops. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “The Pentagon has been planning for Iran’s desperate and reckless closure of the Strait of Hormuz for decades, and it has been part of the Trump administration’s planning well before Operation Epic Fury was ever launched.”
The world awaits. In the interim, the story is ominous. While declaring victory, Trump has appealed to a range of nations – Britain, France, China, Japan and South Korea – to send ships to help the US to reopen the strait. His appeal implies the US can’t do the job alone. Having attacked Iran with no reference to allies, Trump now needs everybody’s help. Suddenly, he is desperate for an allied coalition. Who would have believed?
Who could have doubted? Only clueless reptiles stuck in the lizard Oz hive mind.
Cue a snap of Xi, Chinese President Xi Jinping, left, and Chinese Premier Li Qiang arrives for the closing ceremony of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. Picture: Vincent Thian / AP Photo.
Oh, the poor king, left dangling ...
"Ned" ended on a gloomy, almost defeatist, note, dangling in the void with the Faux Noise King ...
As for China, the main US rival and a close supporter of Iran, Trump wants to delay his upcoming visit to China to put pressure on Beijing to help in the Gulf. So the Iran war is stretching into US-China relations. He needs China’s help – not a smart prelude to talks with Xi Jinping.
As for Russia, Trump has made it a big winner by relaxing sanctions on its energy exports. The power reality is alarming: the more Trump expends US resources in the Middle East, the more Russia and China are the winners.
Trump cannot let Iran win the energy war, but what price to stop it? The other option is ground forces, an option Trump has kept open with his deployment of a marine force to the region.
As the Journal said, Trump might now face a choice between defeat or escalation, neither being remotely entertained a few weeks ago. Trump began this war with devastating damage to Iran’s military capabilities and a powerful sense that reckoning time had come for Iran’s terrorist and fanatical regime. The problem lies in his manifest defects as a war leader – the grave shadow that hangs over this crisis.
Really? That's the best "Ned's" got?
His manifest defects as a war leader, as if those were the only defects in a wretch so defective he might as well be a Tesla cybertruck.
The pond found this vastly more amusing, even if its explanation of the reasons for start of the first world war is inclined to the mindlessly simplistic ...
Now will somebody shush that baby, the reptiles haven't caught a decent night's sleep in days ...
And finally, the pond is currently on an LBC/James O'Brien jag ...
