In which the bromancer and Joe are gloomy, but the Lynch mob arrives in the nick of time to save the day ...

On the downside, every so often the pond looks outside the incestuous hive mind of the lizard Oz, and discovers there are even worse possibilities out there ...

No, Iran Isn’t Winning the War aka The Iranian Advantage Is an Illusion (*archive link, no guarantee it's working)

Bret Stephens is a doofus of the first water, and therefore in the perfect position to serve as an NY Times columnist ... the rag always has both siderist needs, and Stephens offers the side that's all in on stupidity.

The target for this particular set of insights, and the existential despair they should be feeling, the loss of comfort they're suffering?

Imagine, for a moment, that you are a gifted midcareer intelligence officer in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

But only imagine that if you can fit it into the complacent mindset of a triumphalist American scribbler ...

Right now, there’s no telling what will happen. But as you survey where Iran stands now compared with where it stood just three years ago, you are overwhelmed with a sense of loss. Your once-powerful proxies in Gaza, Beirut, Damascus: decimated, deposed or dead. The Arab states: increasingly on side with the Americans and Zionists. Your nuclear program: set back for years or decades, if not forever. Your economy: in even deeper crisis than it was before the war, with no turnaround in sight. Your most capable leaders: dead. Your own people: waiting for the war and the state of emergency to end so they can rise against you again.
It’s a solace of sorts that sophisticated Western commentators think you’re winning this thing. From wherever you are now hiding — since it’s not safe to go to work — it doesn’t feel that way.

This is a man ostensibly writing informed commentary for one of the United States' alleged great newspapers.

Yet somehow his take got old really quick.

As any number of Stephens' readers pointed out - why they subscribe remains a mystery - the Iranian regime's main aim was to survive the war intact. Anything else would be a bonus. They never had a chance to win militarily, but if they get sanctions lifted and get to impose an excise tax on tankers, they'll have an unexpected form of revenue.

Stephens offers the sort of stupidity that allows some Americans to still go around boasting about the many ways they won the 'Nam, Iraq and Afghanistan wars ...

For a moment it almost seemed like he got intimations of his own stupidity:

For all the damage the United States and Israel have inflicted on Iran’s leadership ranks and war-making capabilities, the regime remains intact, unbowed, functional. There has been no mass uprising, thanks to the brutal crackdown that followed protests in early January. Closing the Strait of Hormuz, which required minimal military effort by Iran, has exercised maximum leverage over the global economy while boosting your oil revenues. The war is even more unpopular in the United States today than it was at the start; it is also causing more Americans to rethink the wisdom of their reflexive support for Israel. President Trump’s expletive-laden social media posts increasingly sound more desperate than they do fierce. And the I.R.G.C. is more powerful than ever.
One insight, repeatedly cited by Western pundits as evidence that Iran has the upper hand in the current war, has led you to its source, a 1969 critique of U.S. policy in Vietnam from none other than Henry Kissinger.
“We sought physical attrition; our opponents aimed for our psychological exhaustion. In the process, we lost sight of one of the cardinal maxims of guerrilla war: The guerrilla wins if he does not lose. The conventional army loses if it does not win.”
This should bring you comfort. It doesn’t.

Imagine you're a completely whacked out opinion columnist for the NY Times, so clueless they can't even take on war criminal Henry's advice 

Meanwhile, over in that other place which the pond rarely visits...

Why Trump may have changed the world’s oil markets forever (*archive link)
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Senior business columnist

Inter alia ...

...Iran’s response to the war has been to attack US allies in the region, damaging their energy infrastructure in retaliation for the devastation the US and Israel have wrought. That damage, and production in the region that has been shut in because the oil couldn’t be shipped, will take time to be restored.
Qatar’s massive Ras Laffan LNG facility has for instance, suffered significant damage that it says will take two to five years to be repaired. In the meantime, Qatar, which supplies about 20 per cent of the world’s LNG, has lost about 17 per cent of its LNG capacity.
That, like the spike in WTI prices, is good for US shale oil and gas producers, but not so good for US domestic gas consumers– or companies and consumers elsewhere in the world.
It is, of course, conceivable that the ceasefire doesn’t hold and Iran closes the strait again. In any event, the world of oil will never be the same again because Iran has done what it has threatened but never done before and demonstrated its ability to take out a material chunk of the world’s oil supply.
The premium at which WTI traded over Brent could easily become a permanent feature of the market, with oil industry customers, having experienced a deliverability crisis, looking for the security of sourcing their supplies from places other than the now even more volatile Middle East.
Trump, thanks to a war he started, but has yet to provide a coherent rationale for, may have structurally increased, not just global oil prices but US domestic energy prices, raising inflation rates and lowering global and US economic growth rates in the process.

But enough Tootling off the rails and wandering into forbidden pastures. 

It's a matter of national and professional pride to make sure a reptile at the lizard Oz can match Stephens' rampant idiocy ... and look who turned up at the bottom of the "news" early this morning ...

The bromancer!

How could the pond turn away the bromancer, especially as he's always been inclined to the triumphalism of a Stephens?

The proud warrior has always been up for a war with China, preferably by Xmas, and is always willing to contemplate bunging on a do, what with war just being a natural extension of politics.

Uh oh ...

The header: Scepticism aside, it’s difficult to see a strategic triumph here for the West; Iran may gain control of the Strait of Hormuz and charge ships $US2m tolls under Donald Trump’s ceasefire deal, despite his claims of achieving ‘total victory’ against Tehran.

The caption for the snap of the mad King: US President Donald Trump has agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Picture: AFP

The bromancer sounded surprisingly gloomy. 

Has his Weltanschauung taken a turn for the worse?:

If the two-week ceasefire announced by Donald Trump means Iran gains effective control of the Strait of Hormuz, that’s a significant strategic win for Iran, and a tremendous setback for the US, its allies and, in the long run, the global economy.
At first blush, this looks like a good deal for Iran.
Of course it’s impossible to know at this stage how the ceasefire will actually play out because the deal Trump describes, and the deal the Iranian government describes, seem to inhabit wholly different universes.
Trump says the US has won “a total victory, no question”. Iran says it has comprehensively defeated the US and that’s why it’s willing to talk.
One disturbing element is that Trump has said the ceasefire came about because Iran submitted a 10-point plant that is a “workable basis” for negotiation.
Trump didn’t release this
10-point plan. (sic)
Iran did release a version, and it’s full of provisions the Americans couldn’t possibly agree to, such as the withdrawal of all US troops from the region, acceptance of Iran’s uranium enrichment program and payment of reparations to Iran for its war damage.
No one in Iran thinks any of that could ever happen. In the best light, those are just declaratory negotiating positions, but Iranian foreign ministry and national security statements say ships will travel through the Strait of Hormuz under the supervision of the Iranian military.

Even worse, the bromancer talked with petulant Peta and remained resolutely gloomy ... The Australian Foreign Editor Greg Sheridan says if the Iranians control the Strait of Hormuz, they have “won an enormous victory”. “They have withstood the worst that Trump can give, and they haven’t buckled,” Mr Sheridan told Sky News host Peta Credlin. “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard is still in control in Iran. “That is a big victory.”

Despite his desire to disclaim scepticism, the bromancer found a little scepticism went a long way ...

There are widespread inter­national reports that Iran expects to levy a toll, putatively of $US2m a ship, for container vessels passing through the Strait. If the Iranians are bluffing and in fact plan to let ships through unhindered, without any toll, Trump has secured a reasonable deal. Even if the US doesn’t get the 400kg of uranium enriched to 60 per cent, Trump can claim he’s degraded Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities, as he said he would, and re-established free movement through the Strait of Hormuz.
If the Iranians get to charge a toll, they’ve had a huge victory.
We should know what’s happening on that fairly soon.
Trump’s people have briefed the US media that Iran has agreed to give up all its nuclear enrichment activities, including the enriched uranium, agreed to allow fully and free passage through the Strait of Hormuz and so on.
It is not evidence of Trump Derangement Syndrome to treat these claims with extreme caution, if not outright scepticism. During his first term, Trump declared he’d solved the problem of North Korea’s nuclear weapons, that Kim Jong-un had agreed to denuclearise.
That was just flat-out wrong and Pyongyang has continued enlarging its nuclear weapons arsenal and long range missiles.
More recently, Trump announced a detailed peace “agreement” for the Gaza Strip, including Hamas voluntarily disarming, the establishment of a technocratic government for Gaza, a new police force, inter­national peacekeepers and much else.
Almost nothing of that has come to pass.

The reptiles were so desperate to cheer up the bromancer that they flung in a serve of the Bolter ... Sky News host Andrew Bolt discusses the US and Iran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire, which has led to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. “Well, shock and surprise, there’s a ceasefire in the Iran war, after just five weeks. Both the US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire while they talk peace. And the Strait of Hormuz is meanwhile open to oil tankers again,” Mr Bolt said. “Fact is, this ceasefire puts the lie to so much of what you were told by Trump-hating journalists, and politicians, and activists, and assorted experts. Remember how you were told this would be the forever war, how this was a quagmire, how it was Trump’s Vietnam War, with Trump having no plan or offramp, all those predictions which have now been proved wrong.”

There, exactly the sort of triumphalism designed to put the bromancer in a cheery mood - victory is ours Mein Herr... but for some reason the bromancer remained perversely, obstinately in a depressive state.

Was it that heart attack that made him aware of the fragilities of life?

So far, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains in control within Iran, the enriched uranium hasn’t been handed over, Tehran has maintained missile and drone attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab states, it’s getting strong support from China and Russia, it’s making more money from its own oil exports than it did before the war began and it may keep control of the Strait of Hormuz.
So while Iran has sustained severe damage, it’s difficult to see a strategic triumph for the West.
Trump has damaged the US ­alliance structure. A more considered president would have brought US allies with him, at least in some measure.
Trump’s rhetoric has been self-contradictory and increasingly verbally bizarre. Apart from the juvenile scatological references, he threatened that “a whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again”, presumably by sustained strategic bombing of Iran.
This follows earlier threats to bomb desalination plants.

Quick, a serve of the dog botherer boasting of significant wins. 

That should fix up the bromancer ... Sky News host Chris Kenny gives his opinion on the Iran ceasefire. “The ceasefire is due to last two weeks while a permanent settlement is negotiated. Iran has undertaken to open the Strait of Hormuz to shipping,” Mr Kenny said. “So, all in all, with much left to unfold, it appears to be a significant win for Trump and for Middle East security, and the global economy. “We are all used to Trump's wild rhetoric, and we all knew he was attempting to threaten Iran into accepting a deal, but still, the words used by the President, the leader of the free world, yesterday, well, they were shocking.”

Nothing worked, as the bromancer stayed mired in the gloomy mud ...

These comments were widely condemned, including by many who usually support Washington.
Anthony Albanese was right to describe them as “inappropriate”. The Prime Minister joined Nat­ionals’ leader Matt Canavan and Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie in condemning Trump’s language.
It’s right for political leaders to be careful to avoid needlessly provoking Trump but they are obliged to deal with reality.
Australia is one of the most pro-American countries, yet polls show more than 70 per cent of Australians believe Trump has handled the war badly. A majority of Americans concur.
Previous presidents understood the need to gain public support, at home and among allied countries. Apart from Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, any allied leader who backs Trump now does so in the face of settled hostility from their own publics.
It’s good that the fighting in Iran has stopped for the moment. But this whole saga still has a long way to run.

Come on bro, it's a new age ... rediscover your inner Cro-Magnon man...

And now for a quick survey of what's lurking in the lizard Oz outside the war in coverage.

Luckily the intermittent archive was working - no guarantee it still is - and that allowed the pond to send off a number of reptiles to that swamp-infested land.

State Liberals’ biggest woe? Their own president Phil Davis
Criticism of Victorian Liberal leadership highlights deeper tensions over strategy, identity and voter drift to One Nation.
By Peta Credlin

The pond usually avoids petulant Peta, and this day it was a good thing, what with it being a bout of navel gazing about Vic Liberals, compleat with the notion that bigoted transphobe Moira Deeming was the way forward.

The pond also had no time for this attempt to lather up EV fear ...

EVs could power the grid — but at what cost to owners?
Electric vehicles promise cheaper, cleaner energy and grid support, but hidden costs and unanswered legal questions pose risks.
By Mark Le Grand

It was a pile of alarmist, hysterical tosh, and the pond had to wander down to the credit to work out why ... Mark Le Grand has served for five decades in the law and with various law enforcement bodies.

Arrest those vehicles, seize that grid, come out with your hands up.

The pond also gave this short shrift ...

Ditching ACON first step in reclaiming truth over ideology
After ending funding for ACON’s Pride in Diversity, the ABC faces scrutiny over media coverage and ideological influence on reporting.
By Sall Grover

Again the credit gave the game away ...

Sall Grover is the founder of Giggle, a women-only social app, and is a women’s rights advocate.

The pond knows what that code means .. and couldn't even raise a chuckle.

The pond also had to send away Yoni, grinding out a different brand of hysteria, fear and panic ...

Why the Taiwan Strait could eclipse the Middle East crisis
Could China deploy Iran’s playbook in the Taiwan Strait? A new report warns the consequences would be catastrophic, especially for Australia.
By Yoni Bashan
North Asia Correspondent

The pond could at least allow this Yoni a teaser trailer ...

Not content with one disaster?

Imagine another ... but don't worry Yoni, the pond is sure the bromancer will start feeling his oats again, and be up for that war with China by Xmas.

Then it was back to the war with a lesser member of the Kelly gang...

Back from the brink into fragile uncertainty
The Strait of Hormuz is reopening and markets are cheering. But the Iranian regime is unbroken and its list of demands maximalist.
By Joe Kelly
Washington correspondent

While the pond found a home for Joe at the intermittent archive, the pond found his gloom piquant, down there with the bromancer's, and so worthy of proper treatment ...

Joe was as determined as the bromancer to be gloomy ...

...Yes, Trump has avoided a dangerous escalation in the war and the globe has dodged an economic catastrophe and humanitarian crisis in the Middle East but the hardest part is to come. And Trump has incurred a high cost to arrive at this point.
His threats to kill off Iranian civilisation were shocking public remarks unbefitting a US president. They will be remembered as a symbol of the changed character of American leadership in the world.
A large grouping of Democrats have used the threat to call for the removal of Trump from office; the MAGA base has fractured.
Trump has also alienated America’s closest allies and taken NATO to breaking point.
Key Iranian figures are already framing the shift towards diplomacy as a major victory.
On Monday, the US President said the Iranian plan was “not good enough”. But as his 8pm deadline shifted closer into view on Tuesday, he seized on it as an opportunity after the intervention by Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Iran’s push for a new protocol in the Strait allowing the regime to charge ships up to $2m for safe passage must not be accepted.
It would accede to Iranian extortion in the Strait and see the regime emerge in a stronger financial position with a valuable revenue stream worth billions of dollars each month.
A strong argument can be made that this is a far worse outcome than what existed before the war.
Trump will also need to impose restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program if he is to convince Americans the intervention was worth it.
Preventing Tehran from obtaining a nuclear bomb has become the central justification for and objective of the military campaign.
It is hard to see how Washington and Tehran can bridge their differences on these issues, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has consistently played down the likelihood of progress being made through diplomacy.
Both sides are now back to where they were before Trump launched Operation Epic Fury on February 28 – the negotiating table.
The progress of talks over the next two weeks will determine how Operation Epic Fury will be seen.
At this stage, there can be no certainty the final outcome will leave the US – and its allies – any better off.

Sheesh, but all our wars have gone incredibly well, and shown how good it is to be manly in battle ...

The pond was determined to lift the reptile spirits, and then a miracle happened. 

The Lynch mob came along to set things right ...

The header: If Iran is not our foe, then what’s the point in having enemies? Too much of the global left want Iran to represent some brave resistance to Western imperialism.

The caption for the lickspittle surrender monkey who lacks the Lynch mob's spine: A demonstrator holds a sign during a protest against US military action in Iran in the Manhattan borough of New York City. Picture: Charly Triballeau / AFP

Huzzah, and in due course the pond will be able to demonstrate that it can match King Donald at doing a weave.

But first please allow the Lynch mob to contemplate the joys of nuking those bloody Islamics ...

On July 16, 1945, president Harry Truman learned of the first successful explosion of a nuclear bomb. Nine days later, he authorised its use against Japan. On August 6, that attack took place. A second followed three days later.
The decision to use the A-bomb was not a vexed one. Instead, how to use it consumed the president and his advisers. It was only after Japan’s surrender that Truman wrestled with the ethical implications. The “thought of wiping out another 100,000 people is horrible”, he said. “Killing all those kids” repelled him. “You have got to understand that this is not a military weapon … It is used to wipe out women and children and unarmed people, and not for military uses.”
Donald Trump’s moral struggle over means and ends probably doesn’t match Truman’s. There is nothing in the Democrat’s rhetoric to suggest he wanted to end Japanese civilisation. Indeed, he began its rebuilding. But, like him, the incumbent President has relied on hard power against civilians to force his opponents’ capitulation.
OK, we have a ceasefire with Iran’s depleted leaders rather than their total surrender. But we would be historically myopic not to see how the threat of destruction has resulted in behaviour modification. We would need a deep cynicism to not discern a better future for all those afflicted by Iranian power.

At this point the reptiles flung in snaps of two presidential giants ... President Donald Trump; President Harry Truman

The Lynch mob was all in on history lessons, what with breathtaking comparisons between a world war and a regional carry on ...

Nuke 'em, nuke 'em all, the long, the short and the tall...

Neither Imperial Japan nor Islamist Iran prioritised civilians in their warmaking. Both displayed a criminal disregard for the lives of their citizens. No democracy could countenance losing so many in pursuit of its survival.
In the history of war there is no perfect analogy. Scholars of the Cold War will recoil at a favourable comparison between Truman and Trump. But I think the Iran war is replete with similarities.
An uncouth Trump and pious Truman does not render the 33rd president superior to the 45 and 47th in his transformational power. Indeed, Trump’s war (even if this ceasefire doesn’t hold) almost certainly will not entail the slaughter of Truman’s.
I understand why Trump’s rhetoric has confirmed for many his unfitness for the office he holds. But speaking coarsely while carrying a little stick has resulted in the severe weakening of Iran’s power.
Trump has set back the cause of Iran’s sharia supremacy – the constitutional principle that Islamic law (sharia) has ultimate authority over all state laws, institutions and political decisions in the Islamic Republic. He did this while fighting a war with the goodwill of more Arab allies than any in US history. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pushed Trump to make war with Iran, framing the US-Israeli offensive as a “historic opportunity” to reshape the region.
International lawyers have complained at the death of Iranian civilians. We should mourn the loss of innocent lives in any war. But Trump’s violence has killed a fraction of those killed by the regime’s own security forces – more than 40,000 by some estimates.

Dammit, kill all the innocents, it's the only way forward. (And maybe borrow Pontius Pilate's bowl of water and towel, for the washing and wiping of hands thereof)

Then the reptiles had to produce a downer in the form of Rita, lovely meter maid ... Centre of the American Experiment President John Hinderaker says the US “can’t trust” any agreement with Iran. Mr Hinderaker told Sky News host Rita Panahi Iran will “promise,” which cannot be trusted. “They might promise not to seek nuclear weapons or to stop supporting terrorism, but as long as the regime remains in place, they’re going to abandon those promises as soon as they are able.”

Trust the mad mullahs?

Nah, but it goes without saying that everyone can absolutely trust every word that comes out of King Donald's mouth ...has there ever been a more consummate and convincing con artist?

Crusader Lynch mob carried on with his crusading ..

Trump has made a 47-year experiment in theocratic repression seem temporary, toppleable. No amount of UN resolutions and Obama-Biden nuclear deals had this effect. The loss of US military lives in pursuit of this transformational objective – a Middle East denuded of its chief terrorist exporter – is tiny. A Ballarat tradie who needs cheaper diesel may demure. I do feel his pain and have seen my superannuation fall. But, again, what price was worth paying to hasten the demise of Ali Khamenei?
Trump chose a nemesis that surely meets every definition of just war. Khamenei made misogyny basic to his rule. His regime denied homosexuality existed, while murdering more than 5000 gay men. His HHH axis – made up of Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis – targeted civilians in Israel and across the Gulf. Hamas made rape a weapon of war.
If the Iranian regime is not our enemy, we are no longer capable of having an enemy. Too much of the global left want Iran to represent some brave resistance to Western imperialism. The mullahs are not that. Rather than Che Guevara-style guerrillas, these theocrats have controlled for nearly a half-century a state of ancient lineage, to minimal strategic or ideological gain. Their co-religionists deplore them. The Great and Little Satan have combined to assassinate their supreme leader.

Um, so theocracy is the issue?

How about Israel?

If madness while in possession of nukes is a problem, when do we launch a war on North Korea?

The reptiles interrupted with another snap designed to agitate the Lynch mob ... A demonstrator holds a picture of Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei in Tehran. Picture: Francisco Seco / AP Photo

And this is where the pond can show the power of the weave ...

The regime’s own bureaucrats, who keep the wheels of the state turning, are surely questioning the wisdom of their political leaders. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps promised to safeguard a proud, nuclear-armed Iran. Instead, Trump has made them the organisers of human shields.
Bret Stephens at The New York Times imagined what lower-level officials in Tehran and Mashhad must be thinking: “Your economy: in even deeper crisis than it was before the war, with no turnaround in sight. Your most capable leaders: dead. Your own people: waiting for the war and the state of emergency to end so they can rise against you again.”

You see? 

There was the monstrous stupidity and triumphalism of Stephens replicated by the Lynch mob.

The reptiles can produce commentary as dumb as a stick, and  more than a match for anything as silly as that emanating from Stephens of the NY Times...

Trump failed to predict, let alone pre-empt, Iranian shenanigans in the Strait of Hormuz. Voters will punish him in the November midterms. I do wonder, however, if history will record a more enduring turning point, one that matches the collapse of Imperial Japan in global significance: the ending of a failed experiment in political Islam and the building of a better Middle East.
The destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki led to the rebirth of Japan. That enemy went on to become one of the freest, wealthiest and closest allies America has ever enjoyed. This was the inauspicious but necessary beginning of a regional transformation. Trump has started his own – at a fraction of the civilian lives lost.

Yes, nuke 'em, nuke 'em all, it's the only way forward to an enduring civilisation.

And so cheap in terms of lives lost. Bargain basement transformation.

Credit where credit is due, because the pond can never resist defaming the University of Melbourne's tattered reputation:

Timothy J. Lynch is professor of American politics at the University of Melbourne.

The long absent lord help his students ...

And so to a footnote and a commendation, though Geoff really should have chambered a larger round ...

That's the best the reptiles could do in their attempt to inflate the tyres of the Canavan caravan?

So much winning.

Dark days indeed ...

And so to turn to the immortal Rowe for the closer ...

It's always in the details, and the pond did like these ...nice tatt ...

Could it get any weirder?

Of course it could ...JD Vance Confronted With Report the Pentagon Allegedly Threatened Vatican with Military Foce.

No couch or pope can feel safe ...

 

In which the swishing Switzer does some bog standard fossil fuel worship and Our Henry makes a non-canonical appearance ...

 

All - as a correspondent recently noted - is a sour mash of slop, feculence, and slime, not to mention sociopathy and war crimes - and amazing scenes where even Marge and gravel-voiced Alex are in a dither:

Oh yes ...

How are the reptiles coping with this Emeritus Chairman, Faux Noise production?

Well Dame Slap did the wise and sensible thing.

Ignore it all together, forget the night she donned her MAGA cap and walked out into the streets of New York in a state of ecstatic triumph, and return to the ancient and noble reptile sport of black bashing ...

Why aren’t Indigenous leaders demanding an audit?
We should never forget the bullet we dodged when this country rejected a constitutionally entrenched voice.
Janet Albrechtsen
Columnist

Moi don a MAGA cap? Can't remember, everything's hazy ...

Sadly the intermittent archive was in yet another of its funks, so the best the pond could do was offer a link in the hope that it might come in handy down the track

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary%2Fwhy-arent-indigenous-leaders-demanding-an-audit%2Fnews-story%2F6a2c46c434abbd376aac5b034323c7bf?amp

The pond had to do the same for Jihad Jack, as Jack the Insider cheerfully joined in the current reptile jihad.

There are some who think that Jack is better than your average reptile, but he's just your average jihadist, happy to toil away in the belly of the beast.

Get hold of a keffiyeh. Make a big noise … and let the dollars roll in
Abdel-Fattah’s hypocrisy knows no bounds. From the comfort of academia, she fights against racism by fomenting a lot of it.
By Jack the Insider
Columnist

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary%2Fget-hold-of-a-keffiyeh-make-a-big-noise-and-let-the-dollars-roll-in%2Fnews-story%2Ffd59ab5c355ac380825a8c6e613e77af?amp

Jack, doing a Boris, was just joining Natasha as she indulged in another bit a Bita bitterness ...

EXCLUSIVE
C-grade review yet ARC gave grant ‘OK’
Confidential documents reveal stark divisions among peer reviewers over anti-Israel activist Randa Abdel-Fattah’s $889,000 taxpayer-funded research grant.
By Natasha Bita

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/education%2Franda-abdelfattahs-889000-grant-awarded-by-arc-despite-cgrade-review-and-formal-warnings%2Fnews-story%2Fa391ec5a8f239b34be9a476e8bc78bb8?amp

None of them had any appeal to the pond. 

What a pity then that the intermittent archive spluttered and conked out, so that the pond couldn't personally send these efforts to that dank, dark cornfield.

But that left the pond with very little to do today.

It's already been established on the probabilities that BRS (as the reptiles call him) is a war criminal guilty of appalling war crimes, and the news that Pauline launched a fierce defence of him only made his guilt more plausible.

Marvel at the way that in the midst of King Donald acting as god and promising a genocide, the reptiles still found space to highlight not just BRS, but their current jihad ...

On the BRS matter, over on the extreme far right a soggy Rice attempted to do a little cooking to save the day...

War crimes prosecutors will face challenges convicting BRS
The VC recipient’s defamation case was an own goal, but war crimes prosecutors will have a much more challenging time proving their case beyond reasonable doubt.
By Stephen Rice
Sydney Bureau Chief

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary%2Fwar-crimes-prosecutors-will-face-challenges-convicting-ben-robertssmith%2Fnews-story%2F96fc1de3f4164781ea35c21bd4ffdaf8?amp

In the end, the pond settled for a standard serve of renewables bashing and climate science denialism, served up by the swishing Switzer, still on his never ending rehabilitation tour ...

The header: The era of climate policy consensus is dead. So why are we digging in? The Iran crisis has performed an unintended service: it has exposed, with brutal clarity, the folly of Australia’s energy policy.

The caption for Frank's inimitable effort, Anthony Albanese. Artwork by Frank Ling.

That image of Albo, emerging once again from the lizard Oz's antediluvian swamp, reminded the pond of previous Frank efforts...

Sure enough, it wasn't new and fresh, it was as stale as week-old reptile bread.

It had been recycled, no doubt to help save the planet...

Good old Lloydie of the Amazon, just the right company for the swishing Switzer.

Frank's unifying artwork spread far and wide, with another member of the Kelly gang also entranced ...

Haven't thought about Craig for yonks, but what a relief to see he's landed on his FEE feet ...

Oh wait, it's not that one, it's this mysterious one, see Crikey ...(paywall)

Sheesh, how did the pond end up there, amidst cranks and kooks?

Truth to tell, the pond just wanted to establish that the swishing Switzer and the lizard Oz hive mind were still keeping the right sort of company, and all thanks to Frank's incredible artwork.

As for the swishing Switzer offering, it was short weight, just three minutes, so the reptiles said...

Anthony Albanese is now our longest-serving prime minister since John Howard – long enough to own, in full, the consequences of his government’s policies. And as we now know, those consequences on energy are becoming impossible to ignore: Australia is exposed, vulnerable and paying the price for a government that prefers ideology to pragmatism.
For several years now, Canberra has layered intervention upon intervention: price caps, market controls, regulatory uncertainty and glacial approval processes for new projects. At the same time, Australia has failed to reinvigorate exploration for gas and oil and allowed domestic refining capacity to erode – with only two refineries now operational.
As this newspaper’s Chris Uhlmann has argued, energy is not just another commodity but the foundation of economic life and national security. Australia now sits at the end of long supply chains, reliant on imported liquid fuels to keep the economy functioning. With more than 90 per cent of our energy still derived from coal, oil and gas – and diesel the indispensable fuel of industry, transport agriculture and mining – any serious disruption was bound to bring the country to a standstill.

Here the pond should note that the reptiles, at the mention of his name, provided a link to the Ughmann ... and though it's already been featured in the pond, here's a reminder of the company the swishing Switzer likes to keep...

Enough of that, the Ughmann features regularly in the pond, as the swishing Switzer got down and dirty with the climate science denying dog botherer ... The Australian’s Columnist Tom Switzer says the US President Donald Trump has made a “monumental mistake” with his attack on Iran. Mr Switzer told Sky News host Chris Kenny that Donald Trump most likely assumes striking Iran would “be enough”. “To bring down the regime, he probably in hindsight, should’ve followed the advice of his America first instincts.”

There's nothing new to see here ...

To be sure, this predicament did not begin with the Albanese government. As far back as 2019, The Wall Street Journal captured the absurdity with a stark headline: “Australia, a Top Natural-Gas Exporter, Considers Imports to Stop Blackouts.”
A popular online parody of Albanese captures the same contradiction: an Australia that boasts of climate leadership while exporting vast quantities of coal and gas, importing refined energy at home, and relying on China to process the minerals it claims are strategic. The joke lands because it is so close to the truth.
But this is no longer a laughing matter. Against the backdrop of the Iran crisis and tightening global supply, our vulnerability is being exposed.
And the consequences are increasingly grave: disruptions to petrol supply, renewed inflationary pressure, higher interest rates, weak growth and rising business failures – all pointing to the spectre of stagflation.
A serious government would use this moment to reset policy – acknowledging that fossil fuels will remain central to Australia’s economy for decades and acting accordingly.

Uh huh, and so to a snap of the chief villain, Chris Bowen pictured speaking at a press conference outside his electorate office in Fairfield West. Picture: NewsWire

The pond didn't have the heart to interrupt the swishing Switzer with another tale of the planet going downhill fast...

That would require difficult but necessary decisions: opening new gas fields, encouraging oil exploration, revisiting refining capacity, removing barriers to investment and broadening the energy mix to include options such as nuclear power. It would also mean recognising that energy security is inseparable from national security, requiring greater investment in defence capability and industrial resilience.
The question, as Graham Lloyd recently put it, is whether this government is capable of such a shift. Albanese and Labor remain wedded to the belief that climate change represents such an overriding threat that the world will unite to phase out fossil fuels. And much of the mainstream media encourages the government: now is the moment, we are told, to accelerate moves to renewable energy.
But this is not how the world is behaving. Electricity demand is rising and emissions continue to hit record highs as fossil fuels remain the surest path out of poverty in the developing world.
Even in advanced economies, political resolve is weakening – as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has conceded, the consensus on climate policy has gone.
Yet Canberra persists with an approach that risks making energy more expensive and less reliable, with little measurable impact on global emissions. In doing so, it is not only placing pressure on living standards but also increasing our dependence on imported technologies and supply chains.

Yes, why do anything, when you can do nothing, or perhaps trot out a snap of Sir Keir, Keir Starmer speaks during a press conference at Downing Street. Picture: Getty Images

And that was pretty much it, with the swishing Switzer nobly battling the activist establishment ...

None of this is to deny that the Trump administration has created turmoil in the Persian Gulf, with consequences that are proving difficult to contain. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or the more damage is done to Middle Eastern oil infrastructure, the more the war will roil the global economy.
But the crisis has performed an unintended service: it has exposed, with brutal clarity, the folly of Australia’s own energy policy.
We are a country that could be far closer to energy self-sufficiency. Instead we have chosen dependence – on imports, on fragile supply chains and on the goodwill of others in a tightening world. The Coalition is right to reject Labor’s net-zero agenda. It now has an opportunity – and an obligation – to press the case relentlessly and unapologetically: for supply, for sovereignty and for a policy framework grounded in economic and strategic reality.
Such a course would be fiercely contested by Labor, the Greens and much of the activist establishment. But if the Coalition – alongside One Nation – is prepared to prosecute the argument, it may yet force a long-overdue reckoning and give Australia a fighting chance of securing our energy future and, with it, our economic potential and national security.

Oh yes, let Pauline and the beefy boofhead from down Goulburn way get together and help destroy the planet.

Thanks for that astonishing insight and credit where credit is due ...

Tom Switzer is presenter of Switzerland, a podcast about politics, modern history and international relations.

Why does the pond feel like it's running on empty?

As a little coda, the lizard Oz editorialist was also out and about today, no doubt alarmed by news of the recent surge in EV sales figures...

Not a clue - EVs already do things better and at a lower cost for consumers and trust the pond, the Hume highway is a doddle except for those whale-killing windmills in the beefy boofhead's home turf - and luckily the infallible Pope was on hand to help out ...

The pond has been insufferable lately asking the extended family about how their infernal diesel machines are going.

And so to the bonus, and here a fierce dispute broke out in the pond's editorial offices.

Our Henry had made a rare mid-week appearance, but was it non-canonical?

There was much argument, but consider the Cambridge university dictionary definition ...

not part of a set of works or subjects that are generally agreed to be good, important, and worth studying:

• non-canonical texts can still be very influential.
• non-canonical book The Bible translators did not believe the Apocrypha were inspired, but translated these non-canonical books because of their historical significance.
• non-canonical literature The ruling party viewed noncanonical literature with suspicion.

For starters, how could this outing in the lizard Oz be good, important and worth studying? 

How could it be looked at without harbouring a deep suspicion?

The pond contended that the presence of Pincus made it non-canonical, and a fey reference to Pride and Prejudice proved this was not authentic 'hole in the bucket' man musings.

This wasn't the stuff of Our Henry's ponderous, portentous, pompous Friday outings.

Sure it was back in the days of the industrial revolution, but Darcy? Bingley? Why it was no better than chique chick lit. 

Accordingly it could be tossed off in a few screen grabs, because who would want to do a cut and paste, merely so that they could comment on Our Henry referencing Our Jane, as if he was some kind of brooding, introverted Matthew Macfadyen?

Even that distraction seemed non-canonical - Petey boy as the distraction?! - and the final gobbet was equally dismal, as it failed to mention Thucydides once!

The pond might have reconsidered if there'd been a reference to ancient Greece or Rome or the 300 Spartans or Xerxes, or even better, a medieval theologian or philosopher, but it was just a heap of blather about the dismal art. (Well you could hardly do a Carlyle and call it a dismal science)

That might appeal to some cultists, but only in a non-canonical way ...

Boring!

If only Our Henry had mouthed off some theological and philosophical platitudes, but that pesky Pincus got in the way. Vulgar youff will have to search for alternatives to lead them into the future.

And now, with the bromancer resting, it was left to the lizard Oz editorialist to deal with King Donald ...

His objectives in Iran remain estimable?

Apart from annihilating a civilisation, what exactly are those those objectives?

Never mind ... it's all going well ...

Weird times ...

In which the bro, Joe and Jack try to cope with mad King Donald, and Dame Groan does her standard oil junkie schtick ...

 

It seems the pond's main duty these days is to try to cope with the bromancer trying to cope with mad King Donald.

The bro has always been Trump curious.

Lately he seems to have become increasingly disenchanted, yet still feels compelled to both siderist his suffering.

His latest headline is a classic of the both siderist art form perfected by the NY Times.

The header: Triumph or tragedy? Does Donald Trump have any options left in Iran? The case for acting against Iran was strong, but Trump made many miscalculations and was not prepared for easily foreseen contingencies.

The caption: President Donald J. Trump delivers a message on Holy Week. Picture: Supplied

What on earth is the message King Donald delivered on Holy Week? Obscenity, blasphemy, and the pagan rantings of an ancient Moloch?

Mad King Donald is way less Xian than the pond, and that's saying something.

As for the bro, it's amazing really that anyone could find any hope of a "triumph" in what King Donald has done to the United States and to the planet, yet there it was in the headline, taking up as much room as "tragedy" as the way into the bro's four minute ramble.

The bromancer diligently ferreted through the tea leaves and the chicken's entrails, hoping against hope that he'd see signs of the triumph ...

Donald Trump has two options and one hope in Iran. The options: escalate or leave. The hope: a deal with Tehran that allows him to claim victory and go home. He’s probably happy to leave the Iranian regime intact provided it opens the Strait of Hormuz, and makes at least a pro forma commitment to end its nuclear program.
One Trump tragedy is that he gives many good things a bad name. The case for acting against Iran was strong, but Trump and his administration have made many miscalculations and not prepared for easily foreseen contingencies.
Much worse, the way the President talks, his wild language, endless self-contradictions, and contempt and humiliation for US allies, is doing serious strategic harm to the US and its allies.
Trump’s most recent threat bears repeating. On Truth Social he posted: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F..kin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.”
This is both an astonishing and contemptible social media post from Trump. It also almost certainly indicates a failure of analysis of the nature of the Iranian regime.
One of the reasons America is so friendless in this military campaign, which is inherently defensible if done properly, is because no one can sign up to Trump’s rhetorical instability, his reversals day by day (only a few days ago, in a formal address to the American people, he said the US had no concerns about the Strait of Hormuz).
The Iranian regime is defined by its activist hatreds of America and Israel, and its social practices of pietistic fundamentalist Shia Islamism. That is a toxic and evil mixture. Trump thinks that every time he threatens Iran, he’s putting its leaders under pressure. The Iranians apparently regard Trump’s wild declarations as a sign of desperation.

You see?

Somehow "inherently defensible" creeps into the narrative, accompanied by a small billy goat butt - "if done properly", which is the sort of thing that happens when the pond attempts a triple pike into the pool and ends up doing a belly flop.

In what possible way could it be "inherently defensible" when in reality that sort of attempt to bomb into submission is inherently stupid and ineffectual, as Vlad the sociopath has discovered to his cost in his long and inherently indefensible monstering of Ukraine.

Even the both siderist NY Times gets this ...

Bombing Kyiv Into Submission? History Says It Won’t Work.
Even though it creates misery and loss, the methodical bombing of civilian centers has more often been shown to rally support for resistance. (*intermittent archive, and you know what that means)

...The victorious allies in World War II did emphasize a strategy of heavily bombing cities, which is part of why countries have come to repeat this so many times since. Cities including Dresden and Tokyo were devastated, killing hundreds of thousands of civilians and forcing millions into homelessness.
Still, historians generally now argue that, even if that did play some role in exhausting those countries, it was largely because of damage to German and Japanese industrial output rather than the terror it caused. Axis countries were also aggressive in bombing enemy cities, casting further doubt on notions that the strategy could be a decisive factor on its own.
And any World War II lessons may be of limited utility in understanding the wars that came after, as countries quickly learned from that conflict to move military production away from city centers. Tellingly, such bombing has seldom worked since.
American war planners discovered this in the Korean War, when bombing Pyongyang only hardened the North’s commitment. A decade later, they tried it again in Vietnam. But an internal Pentagon report concluded that striking Hanoi, the North Vietnamese capital, had been “in retrospect, a colossal misjudgment.”
Iran and Iraq struck each other’s capitals during their 1980s conflict to try to force one side to back down. Instead, both nations were rallied by watching foreign bombs fall on civilian neighborhoods, helping to stretch the war to nearly a decade.
Insurgent groups have likewise adapted this tactic, to little more success.
Northern Irish groups struck repeatedly in London, hoping to dispel British commitment to the territory. Instead, the bombings led to more severe measures by British authorities in Northern Ireland. Palestinian groups that ignited bus and cafe bombs in Israeli cities during a period of conflict in the 2000s found much the same result.
Al Qaeda’s justification for the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks has shifted, but the group has said that one aim was to compel American withdrawal from the Middle East. But Americans, rather than rising up against their country’s overseas deployments as Al Qaeda leaders had hoped, rallied in support of invading Afghanistan and then Iraq.
Though each conflict is different, this pattern is not a coincidence, but is explained by the politics as well as the psychology of warfare. And both appear to apply in Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Capital strikes intended to push a government toward conciliation or retreat instead do much to close off those options.
In practice, such attacks tell targeted leaders that they, and perhaps the very existence of their government, will not be secure until they eliminate the threat through outright victory. They will tend to escalate in response, rather than back down as their attackers hope.
And a negotiated peace, like the one Mr. Putin has urged, becomes harder for those leaders to enter because it means accepting that the threat to the capital will remain.
The public will often reach the same calculus, coming to see their attacker as an implacable threat that can only be neutralized through defeat.
The stiffening resolve inspired by such strikes can be equal parts strategic and emotional.
German rocket and air attacks on British cities during World War II, known as the Blitz, aimed to degrade British production as well as public support for the war, so that Britain would agree to withdraw from the conflict.
Instead, the attacks led to a drastic reduction in British support for peace talks with Germany, polls at the time found, raising pressure on British leaders to uphold the fight.
And German leaders had hoped that turning whole blocks of London into rubble would inspire Britons to turn against the leaders who insisted on staying in the war. But British approval of their government rose to near 90 percent.
The United States has stumbled on this effect several times, but perhaps most powerfully in the Korean and Vietnam Wars, when it sought to force back its Communist adversaries by bombing their towns and cities. Instead, the campaigns convinced those governments, as well as their populations, that they could only be safe by defeating the Americans for good, whatever the cost.

And here we go again, and what a regime to help, as at this point the reptiles flung in a visual distraction ... Demonstrators attend a pro-government gathering in a square in Tehran, Iran. Picture: AP

The pond does like the way that the bromancer consistently side steps around the way that Benji's fundamentalist theocratic government, campaigning for a greater Israel, managed to lure mad King Donald into the war ...

Trump may for the first time in his life have met a foe not motivated by money, self-interest or even national interest, but by ideological, and in this case theocratic, conviction. It’s overwhelmingly to be hoped that the US and Israel succeed in Iran. Nothing would be better for the Middle East, and the world, than for the odious Tehran regime to disappear.
But analytically, we must deal with reality. The Iranian regime is tough and is built for war. It doesn’t care about suffering endured by its society. It has decentralised decision-making. A big chunk of society gets paid by the regime, and a big chunk has committed violence and murder on behalf of the regime. These folks won’t give up control.
The US has degraded Iran’s military capabilities. But Tehran is still firing missiles and drones, and controls the Strait of Hormuz.
It’s now clear Tehran is getting some help from both Russia and China, without any major pushback from Washington, which has its hands full. In the past few days, notwithstanding the devastation of Iran’s air defences, it has shot down a number of US aircraft.
It targets US bases, and Gulf Arab infrastructure, with some precision. Chinese and Russian help not only benefits it materially, but boosts the morale and self-belief of Iran’s rulers.
Any Trump escalation in Iran will lead to further disruption in the global economy and rising oil prices. This is disastrous politically for Trump and Republicans. It’s now all but certain Republicans lose the House in November’s midterm elections. They could well lose the Senate.

What's another bomb? Cars drive on the highway in front of a plume of smoke rising from the Dahieh neighbourhood after an Israeli airstrike on April 5 in Beirut. Picture: Getty Images

Put it another way, as they did in The Times ...

At this point, the bromancer began to waver, to have saucy doubts and fears ...

That provides a disincentive to escalation, but Trump may go that route anyway. He can’t run for re-election, and can’t accept defeat from Iran. But Iran won’t accept defeat either. While Tehran is weakened militarily, it’s earning about twice the revenue from oil sales that it earnt before the war. It’s letting tankers from “friendly” nations, such as China, pass through the Strait of Hormuz and charging a toll.
Geo-strategically, the big winner so far is Russia, earning billions and billions more for its oil, while the missiles and missile interceptors needed by Ukraine are expended and can’t be replaced at the rate they’re being used.
Trump is abusing allies, NATO especially, for not offering military support especially in the Strait of Hormuz. But this Trump demand is again literally incoherent. The US itself is not escorting any tankers through the Strait. It has not proposed a specific operation to clear the Strait. The Strait itself is so narrow, and drones now so cheap and plentiful, that it’s quite likely no operation to clear the Strait, short of invading Iran, is physically possible.
So why is Trump so wilfully mismanaging US allies, at such detriment to the US? US Studies Centre scholar Jared Mondschein offers one insight: “Trump has always seen NATO as something that entangles the US, rather than as a force multiplier as previous presidents did.”
If the Iranian regime survives this war and emerges with control of the Strait of Hormuz, it will likely earn enough revenue to rebuild its military, and it will have more influence on the global economy, and on the Middle East economy, than ever before.

Uh huh, that sounds like ending up way more tragedy than triumph, as the reptiles slipped in a final visual distraction: A protester waves the pre-Islamic Revolution Iranian flag and the Free France flag from World War II during a march against the Islamic Republic of Iran in Paris on April 5. Picture: AFP

But just as soon as the bro sees a little darkness, he turns around and discovers that mad King Donald has been "astonishingly effective":

Trump has often been astonishingly effective at overturning popular wisdom and winning politically – his two presidential victories, surviving all the legal charges thrown at him, decapitating the Venezuelan government, instituting a vast tariff regime without tanking the US or global economies.
This has made him overconfident. The tariffs didn’t work in policy terms. They didn’t cut the US trade deficit, didn’t create massive numbers of new manufacturing jobs, and led to China working out its far more powerful critical minerals weapon. Even to build the replacements to the weapons it’s using in Iran, the US needs Chinese critical minerals.
Trump is becoming more erratic even by his own standards. There is no one in this administration who talks back to him, gives him bad news, cautions him.
The near mass sackings of senior US generals are intensely disturbing. Senior military folks are not warmongers, but instinctively prudent, realistic. They also obey the law. In this most critical conflict, Trump’s hubris may well have led to severe, dangerous miscalculation. Then again, anything is possible, even a good outcome.
Greg Sheridan is The Australian’s foreign editor.

And there you have it.

After all that, still the bromancer holds out hope, even for "even a good outcome".

What can you say, except that he's almost as barking mad as King Donald ...

At this point, the pond should note that the current reptile jihad continues, thanks to a bit of bitter Bita ...

Once they get their teeth into a victim, the vampire reptiles never let go of their jihads, not until the last drop of blood is sucked dry...

Nothing will stop them, not garlic, silver bullets, stakes in the heart, holy water or crucifixes in hand.

As an aside, the pond can't help but immediately think of Boris and Natasha whenever Natasha's name bobs up. (They even scored their own live-action movie)

To note the crusade isn't to endorse or join it and in the normal course of things, the pond would have sent Natasha's hit piece to the intermittent archive ... but the archive is acting kinda funny at the moment, and the pond had trouble saving a link.

For those who care and want to try at some point ...

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation%2Ftaxpayerfunded-academic-cited-romance-novels-as-research-to-secure-900000-grant%2Fnews-story%2Fc3b530ba38957bf4a633ffb20f45077b?amp

(Hang on a mo', it came to life. Hopefully it will stop working again soon and save a stray correspondent from the jihad)

The pond was left wondering what it must feel like to hack away daily at hit pieces for the lizard Oz, with seemingly the sole purpose to generate fear, hate and loathing in the hive mind.

What an empty life ... it's not as if there aren't more obvious targets...

And that brings the pond to that lesser member of the Kelly gang, a certain Joe, who earlier had also tried to sort out mad King Donald for the reptiles ...

The header: Donald Trump faces blowback whether he strikes Iran’s infrastructure or backs down; Striking Iranian power plants risks punishing civilians and handing Tehran a propaganda win.

The caption for a man imitating a cane toad: US President Donald Trump has extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Picture: AFP

The good thing about Joe's piece was that it was just two minutes long, and could be swallowed in a bite, with Joe showing signs of a little more concern than the bromancer:

Donald Trump needs to urgently land a deal with Tehran given his threats to target civilian infrastructure – a step which risks punishing the Iranian people in his ongoing military campaign against the Islamic regime.
The US President has now extended his deadline for the regime to reopen the Strait of Hormuz until Tuesday at 8pm local time (10am Wednesday AEST) before he begins destroying Iran’s power plants and other infrastructure.
If Trump makes good on his threat, Iran will undoubtedly use the strikes for propaganda purposes to try to galvanise popular support against Washington and strengthen its own domestic position.
Doubts are already being raised over the extent to which US attacks on energy plants and other infrastructure will advance the key objectives set out by the administration at the start of the war.
Questions over the legality of potential strikes on civilian infrastructure will also risk staining the legitimacy of the US campaign against an oppressive regime.
More broadly, it may further isolate Washington and draw criticism from trusted allies and partners.
None of the options is good.
The US President faces blowback if he follows through on his threat. But if he continues to extend the deadline, his threats lose credibility.
Another option is the deployment of ground troops, with more than 50,000 US forces now in the Middle East that could be used to help secure the Strait by force, seize the regime’s enriched uranium or capture the oil terminal on Kharg Island to use as leverage – all options fraught with the risk of US casualties.
Six weeks after launching Operation Epic Fury, the frustration of the US President boiled over in his Truth Social post on Easter Sunday where he called on the regime to “open the f..kin’ strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in hell”.
An eleventh-hour deal would give Trump an offramp from the cycle of escalation he now finds himself in, although both sides remain far apart.
The terms of any agreement and what happens to the Strait of Hormuz would be seen as the crucial measure of who holds the upper hand.
Iran is demanding that it retain control over the waterway – an unacceptable outcome for Washington and the world.
A new front has also emerged in the conflict in the form of a deeper and profound rift between the US and Europe. This threatens to be one of the most consequential developments of the conflict so far.
Already Trump’s position on NATO has shifted decisively.
His previous complaint was that the alliance wasn’t working given the free-riding of European partners. But now he has adopted a more confronting and existential position: he no longer believes in NATO at all.

The debate is no longer about European nations paying more.
Trump is now publicly canvassing a withdrawal and making clear that the trust underpinning the alliance has been killed off by the refusal of US allies and partners to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
White House deputy press secretary Anna Kelly told The Australian that “President Trump has made his disappointment with NATO and other allies clear, and as the President emphasised, ‘the United States will remember’.”
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is due to meet with Trump on Wednesday, an opportunity to try to repair the damage in the transatlantic partnership.
In practical terms, Trump’s disenchantment may have meaningful consequences for Europe and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, including the diversion of US military resources and munitions intended for Ukraine to assist the Iranian war campaign.
A key risk is Trump washing his hands of the conflict in Eastern Europe given his belief the US was abandoned by its allies in the Middle East.

A key risk?

Oh Joe, Joe, mad King Donald abandoned the Ukrainians long ago, and has done everything in his power to help out and enable Vlad the sociopath, and now keeps boasting about how he can emulate Vlad's war criminal behaviour by bombing Iran back to the stone age ...

And now thanks to mad King Donald and the reptiles, the pond comes to a genuine curiosity ...

The header: Donald Trump using the F-word is the least of our problems with the President; There is a bit of General George Patton in Trump, in the way he bullies through with little concern for consequences.

The caption for that snap of a maniacal grin: This is not US President Donald Trump’s first excursion into obscenity. Picture: AFP

The pond confesses to not having thought of Jack Marx for years, and so was completely surprised to see him bob up in the hive mind.

His wiki listing is out of date, and his Facebook page has just 121 followers ... with his last post a couple of years old and about his struggles in rehab.

His return would have been interesting if he'd had something remotely interesting to say ...

It has been said that taboo slang is the last bastion of the intellectually bankrupt. But outrage in the face of it – hand-to-bosom shock at an F-word – is surely the Alamo of the morally fraudulent.
Such impostors are living large this week, on the back of Donald Trump having used the notorious “doing word” in a post on Truth Social. (Those easily offended should be assured, however, that they can approach the following paragraph with confidence.)
“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran,” the American President wrote. “There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F..kin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”

Actually that's not what he said ... this is what he said ...

Yes, he used the "f" word in full, he didn't slip in dots or asterisks or dashes or some other tomfoolery, which is why the reptiles diluting it was full of rich irony - as if they were being run by the google bot overlord who takes a view on what turns up in this blog.

Suddenly Jack's attempt at being a hard hitting takedown artist looked pretty feeble ...

The post was directed at Iran, whose leaders really should have been more offended by Trump’s obviously ironic abuse of the Prophet’s name. But Seyyed Mehdi Tabatabaei, deputy for communications at the Iranian President’s office, seemed more alarmed by the swearing, declaring Trump had “resorted to obscenities and nonsense out of sheer desperation and anger”.
Also deeply hurt was Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene – the devout Christian who was banned from Twitter for “multiple violations of our civic integrity policy” – who called fellow Republican Lauren Boebert a “little bitch” and recommended the then Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, be executed. Greene said everyone in Trump’s administration needed to “beg forgiveness from God” for Donald’s vulgarity. God, it seems, has no problem with corruption, infidelity or homicidal wrath, but really gets upset when confronted by a bit of the old bad language.

Jack decided to dress this latest example of dementia in action as a form of "plain speaking" ... US President Donald Trump is a plain speaker. Picture: AFP

Actually like a lot of swearing, it's merely a sign of impotence, frustration and a limited vocabulary.

When you get down to basics, it's deeply pathetic.

Jack was all in on being naughty, except he still couldn't be properly naughty, at least when it came to the dreaded "f" word (the pond could also sense the evil google bot hovering, ready to strike, but Jack and the reptiles of Oz saved the pond's bacon):

Everyone seems to have forgotten this is not Donald Trump’s first excursion into obscenity. In 2018, he referred to African countries as “shitholes”. In 2020, on Rush Limbaugh’s radio show, he told the Islamic Republic there would be trouble “if you f..k around with us”. And last year he referred to Israel and Iran as two countries that “don’t know what the f..k they’re doing”. When it comes to scandalous utterances, Donald Trump is no Pat Boone.
And then there’s the word itself, irrespective of who is using it. It’s quite bizarre that it’s deemed offensive, considering what it represents. It describes an act of creation – the privatisation of The Big Bang – which is the reason we are all here. We should be more offended by “death”, “murder”, “cancer”, “lack of air”.
My father died last week. I watched him take his last breath. It fell to me to deliver his eulogy, and the choice of words has never been heavier. I felt bossed about by that odd aversion to crude absolutes, like “death”, “dead” and “died”, some pansy voice inside me suggesting “passed”, “passed away” and “no longer with us” instead. I ignored that voice. I’m glad I did. My dad was a plain speaker.
Donald Trump is a plain speaker, too. The unwise do not have the luxury to be manipulative. He says whatever comes into his head, and it’s left to his handlers to clean up the mess. He might be the first politician in history whose words can be absolutely trusted, even if his motives cannot.

Stupid is as stupid scribbles, and the reptiles blessed us with another snap of a man whose words apparently can absolutely be trusted ... except in the many ways he lies and tells porkies and invents alternative realities... US President Donald Trump gestures after speaking at a televised address on the conflict in the Middle East. Picture: AFP

Perhaps with Jack's guidance, the pond might learn to trust King Donald's words in due course ... possibly the process might only take those immortal two weeks the mad king keeps talking about ...

It’s a very American thing to speak with recklessness and discourtesy. General George Patton was good at it, got pounded for saying “the wrong thing”, and for that was forever loved. There’s a bit of Patton in Trump, in the way he bullies through with little concern for consequences.
Patton was no strategist – he believed in charging ahead at full speed, using profane language to inspire his men to follow him (those who recall Franklin Schaffner’s film from 1970 will remember it well). Trump does the same; his army of followers willing to go with him, die with him. They will, too. But they won’t do so because Donald Trump uses bad language. Rude words never hurt anyone. It’s Donald Trump’s mind, the thing with which he sleeps, that is the danger. We should be thankful, I guess, that the window to his mind is yawning open. Even if there are rude words in there, I think we can handle it.
Those focusing on Trump’s profanity are like people beating up fleas in a catfight. The administration he captains is guilty of many things, but ribald language is the least of them. It’s hardly surprising – those in an argument who’ve run out of ammunition always pick on the bad language of their adversary, as if piety is more important than acumen. F..k that.

Oh dear. An attempt at a final flourish, and still the dots got in the way.

That saved the pond from its omniscient overlord, the google bot, but it didn't help Jack maintain his hard-swearing tough guy pose ...

And so to Dame Groan, and the reason the pond dilly-dallied and delayed with Joe and Jack was that it would make the arrival at the Tuesday groaning all the sweeter and more rewarding ...

The header: Our war on fossil fuels is ending in a battle for energy; The so-called ‘experts’ simply did not accept the possibility renewable energy would not replace fossil fuels.

The caption for the wildly exciting snap of gas guzzlers in a queue: Lining up at the bowser for petrol at Costco service station in Kilburn, South Australia. Picture: Brett Hartwig

The trouble with delaying Dame Groan's arrival is that instead of a cosmic explosion, an ecstatic eruption, it's more likely to be just the usual onanisms about renewables and climate science spilling to the ground ...

Dame Groan is an oil and gas junkie.

Always has been, always will be ...and how she hurts at the cruel way they've been treated ...

Australia has been waging a war against fossil fuels for nearly two decades. While Labor governments have fought this battle with the most aggression, Coalition governments have contributed as well. Recall here Morrison’s commitment to net zero 2050 made in 2021 on the eve of the COP climate meeting in Glasgow.
Working on the assumption that the net-zero transition is an economic prize – an assumption that is immediately refuted by dint of the necessary compulsion and large subsidies required to achieve it – Australia has put up multiple barriers to any fossil fuel-based developments.
Add in the false proposition that renewable energy is the cheapest form of energy and we have been led down a path of economic harm and insecurity.
We are now witnessing the consequences of our overdependence on imported fossil fuels – think petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, helium, fertilisers, plastics – and an inability to remedy the situation in an acceptable time frame.
There was always an astonishing naivety – nay, complete ignorance – about the consequences of blocking the use and development of fossil fuels. Far too much attention was given to the electricity grid and the scope for turbines and solar panels to generate electrons to replace ageing coal-fired plants.
The external environmental costs of turbines, solar panels and large-scale batteries have essentially been ignored. True environmentalists should hang their collective heads in shame. As a less dense form of power than coal/gas/nuclear, renewable energy would always require vastly larger land masses, with much larger environmental footprints.
The need for extraordinarily expensive transmission lines has simply added to the catastrophe. There is also the important point that the turbines, solar panels and batteries have relatively short lives relative to coal-fired and nuclear plants, with the associated need for expensive replacement. But here’s the thing: notwithstanding the billions of dollars expended to spur the expansion of renewable energy, there hasn’t been a significant decline in the overall use of fossil fuels here. According to the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, “fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) accounted for 91 per cent of Australia’s primary energy mix in 2023-24”. In energy terms, Australians consume twice as much in liquid fuels as in electricity.

Okay, so we've read it all before, and the pond is sure we'll read it all again, and as usual, the reptiles will parade the villains who have treated Dame Groan so vilely ... Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen pictured speaking at a press conference outside his electorate office in Fairfield West. Picture: NewsWire / Monique Harmer

Usually the pond would be inclined to slip in another story about how stuffed the planet is ... but not having the intermittent archive to hand means paywalls can get in the way.

What the heck ...

How to Poison an Ocean
Trump envisions a new era of offshore oil drilling. Scientists know all too well how that story ends.
By Jeffrey Marlow (*intermittent archive, still working?)

A teaser trailer ...

Meanwhile, the groaning carried on ...

The so-called “experts” simply didn’t accept the possibility renewable energy wouldn’t replace fossil fuels but would add to it. With the prospect of new data centres and their need for constant power (and water), there is a good chance that the proportion of our energy mix accounted for by fossil fuels could increase.
Far too much emphasis has been placed on the scope for electrification while ignoring the vital and largely uncontested role of fossil fuels in primary iron, cement, fertilisers and plastics. This naivety has been clearly demonstrated by recent events. It’s worth outlining how the war against fossil fuels has been waged by governments across many fronts to understand our current predicament.
To take a recent example, the mandate of the Export Finance and Insurance Corporation had been altered to prevent any investments in fossil fuels. To ensure ongoing oil delivery, however, the Albanese government has had to reverse this mandate.
Then there are the recent amendments to the Environmental Protection and Biosecurity Act, which explicitly exclude fossil fuel projects from using the streamlined assessment pathway.
They cannot obtain the benefit of being classified a “national interest proposal” or be granted an exemption from being a “restricted action” in a conservation zone. The likely effect is to thwart new fossil fuel developments, including drilling for oil.

There followed another snap of assorted villains ... Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Treasurer Jim Chalmers, and Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen hold a joint press conference at Parliament House on the national fuel security crisis and emergency economic measures. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Dame Groan's lust for oil was worse than a meth addict looking for a fix ...

The mandate of the Future Fund was changed in 2024 to include support for the energy transition as one of three priorities, effectively ruling out large-scale investment in fossil fuels. The federal government funds anti-fossil fuel groups such as the Environmental Defenders Office to pursue legal action against fossil fuel developments. The recently concluded Australia-EU Free Trade Agreement contains “a binding commitment to implement obligations under the Paris Agreement on climate change”.
The point is that the federal government executes its anti-fossil fuel stance in many ways in addition to the massive subsidies made available to the transition of the electricity grid. It is hardly surprising therefore that exploration for oil, for example, has effectively dried up, notwithstanding the fact that there are a number of highly prospective areas in this country.
It was only two decades ago that we were nearly self-sufficient in oil; we are now down to 20 per cent and falling. We no longer have a large-scale urea factory – the Gibson Island plant closed two years ago – and Qenos, the country’s largest producer of polyethylene and polymers, has also shut up shop. Mind you, state governments, including Coalition ones, have also demonstrated hostility to fossil fuels by facilitating the rollout of renewable energy and refusing to green-light any new or replacement coal-fired power plants. They have blocked or significantly delayed fossil fuel exploration and extraction. They have also wasted money on unachievable pipedreams – green hydrogen in South Australia, anyone?
It’s worth noting the economic effects of this intransigent opposition to fossil fuels. According to CBA Economics, “the closure of critical air and shipping routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz, is rupturing fragile global supply chains, slowing down the passage and pushing up prices of a variety of products, including oil, gas, chemicals, resins, fertilisers, cement and grains”.

A last snap of the villain in chief, Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen speaking to an Endeavour Energy employee in Bidwill, Western Sydney launching a local community battery. Picture: Jane Dempster / The Australian

... followed by a last groaning and a sighing, and Dame Groan's despair at the way that we still haven't sufficiently f*cked the earth, the sky and the oceans (*you see Jack, we all end up wimps under the iron rule of the google bot overlord):

The further point is that “the elongated supply chain disruption in the Middle East has exposed vulnerabilities in Australian fuel markets, with the country heavily reliant on importation of liquid fuels such as refined petroleum, diesel and jet fuel to power our domestic energy-intensive industries”. The industries singled out as being particularly vulnerable include agriculture, transport, construction and mining.
The idea of running a “just in time” economy has a certain appeal until consideration is given to the large adverse consequences of disruptions to vital supply chains. It might look cheaper at the time, but the real costs become apparent when the flows of vital inputs to economic activity are impeded and their price skyrockets. We should have learned that lesson from the Covid experience, but it was essentially ignored.
A reserve of petrol/diesel/aviation fuel of around 30 days was always insufficient. It also puts us at significant odds with many other countries. Australia needs to remove immediately the impediments to increasing the domestic availability of liquid fuels lest we find ourselves in this position time and time again.

The pond has said it before and will say it again. If we don't get off being oil and gas and coal junkies, there won't be much of a future ...

The old biddy has done a lot of her time already, but the pond quaintly imagined that white Xian nationalists in the lizard Oz wanted children to inherit an earth.

Instead we're in the last chance theatre watching Godot's last stand or Krapp's last tape ...

It's always in the details ... especially that shadowy figure lurking in the wings that the bromancer never manages to see ...

Good old Sky (no rebrand yet?), good old Covid Sharri, good old war mongering Faux Noise, good old Jesse and his mum ...

Crazy times ... crazy people ...