The pond is always slow to the scene of the crime, and yesterday the Major celebrated the deep love that bush folk had for Barners, and if only the pond had known what was going down, what a lot more fun the pond could have had ...
Yes, rorters rewarded for treachery and that man getting it off his chester talking of incoherent ramblings, with the reptiles running a story about it in the lizard Oz, while giving it away for free at news.com.au ... in part including ...
So much Major bush love, the pond hardly knows where to begin ... please sir, another serve if you will ...
Yes, rorter rewarded for treachery, and the pond hasn't even included the younger Pitt mourning his participation in the game of snakes and ladders and catching a ride on a short snake, which is a novel way to talk of Barners ... because, surely as snakes in the grass go, he's quite a big one ...
And so to today's offerings, and as usual, the pond had to do some winnowing, handing out notes before proceeding with the main game ...
There's Troy yearning for Gough, and there's Jim helping the Murdochians and the Chairman by hiding behind paywall, and perhaps best of all, there's the lizard Oz editorialist suggesting high-level engagement would help achieve a thawing of relations ...
Perhaps an Apple Daily level of engagement?
It was as if the lizard Oz editorialist hadn't noticed its own war on China, which has been going on for a long time now and was featured top of the digital page yesterday ...
Just a minor note Trev, scribbling as you are about anti-democratic values. Did you note the Chairman's role in the bullshit being spread by the orange one and his enablers? Did you note the lack of guts shown by Wm Barr, only speaking out long after it mattered or anybody cared, what with the big lie now built into the system? Did you note the authoritarian, anti-democratic ways of the GOP and Faux Noise and the Tuckers and Hannitys of the world when scribbling about that anti-democratic resurgence?
Not to worry, the pond has other fish to fry this day, because lurking in that commentariat parade was Dame Groan ... and for some peculiar reason, the Dame has a fan base among regular pond readers, so come on down and do some Groaning ...
Of course Groan was going to get agitated about migrants, she always does, but the pond was more agitated by that bizarre reptile illustration, wisely not credited to a single human bean on the planet.
Dear sweet long absent lord, hasn't the reptile graphics department gone to hell in a handbasket since the cult master moved along ... but on with the Groaning ...
At this point, the pond will admit to its own reason for putting the Groaner at the head of the reptile queue.
You see, elsewhere in the lizard Oz this day ...
Yes, there was Patrick going full gloom, and there was nattering "Ned" doing his Chicken Little impression, and bizarrely, there was talk of a Chinese-made camera capturing the kiss, as if the manufacturing origin of a CCTV camera has anything to do with its deployment.
Just another example of the reptiles' high level of engagement strategy, as we return from this teaser trailer to the soothing sounds of the Groaner ...
The pond and Dame Groan can agree on one thing. Treasury can never get future projections right, nor can other cardigan wearers scribbling reports - because that's what cardigan wearers must do, and the pond once had a hand in a number of wildly inaccurate reports - and so all those numbers should be taken with a huge grain of salt, no matter the hypertension involved - and already we've heard talk of Treasury and Treasurer arguing over the figure for growth that would be plucked out of a hat, and offered up for consumption, and for Josh's political purposes ... and so to the final Groaning gobbet ...
And now, having already done a teaser trailer, on with nattering "Ned", inclined to hysteria, completely at odds with the Groaner - how the pond loves to see the reptiles fuss and feud and fight - and suddenly discovering a love of graphs up there with a choleric Kohler ...
The pond will just note in passing yet again how odd the illustrations are in the lizard Oz.
Here we are, about to read nattering "Ned" and be plunged into Chicken Little levels of disaster, alarm and gloom, and yet the reptiles begin with a positively beaming Josh holding up a report allegedly showing how we'll all be rooned ... (unless we follow Josh) ...
The pond will admit that it's scurrying through "Ned's" thunderclaps. As noted while perusing Dame Groan, the pond doesn't give a fig for such reports or projections or speculations or graphs, or such like, which always miss out on key matters, and incidental events, such as a world-wide pandemic ... or other freight trains bearing down on the planet ...
Well, you can lead a climate denialist to an unprecedented event, but you can't make them feel the heat ... so let's see how climate denialist "Ned" and his thunderclap report have coped, or will cope, with a changing climate and a suffering planet ... perhaps ignore it altogether?
Yes, the pond just ran with Dame Groan so she could pick a fight with "Ned" and may the best groaning win, and still the pond is waiting for a graph showing the world suffering from advanced, ever advancing climate change ...
It's not governments that run the country, it's oppositions? So what's the point of having a bickering Barners or Scotty from marketing? Surely there must be some purpose ...
Ah there it is, the purpose ... provide a business model for cartoonists.
Okay, the pond will admit it's not taking "Ned" or the report seriously, but it does hope that at some distant point in the future, this archival remnant of the pond will be taken out and compared to the next IG report and the one after that, and much hilarity at the projections versus the outcomes will ensue ...
The pond hopes it's been splendid fun, because there's just a brief gobbet to go, with talk of a wake-up call ...
Indeed, indeed... but has nattering "Ned" or Josh or bickering Barners or rewarded rorters or the Canavan caravan or any of the reptile denialists got the slightest interest in all the wake-up calls to be observed around the world?
Probably not, probably we're hoping that we handle it as well as we've handled the current crisis, as astutely noted by the infallible Pope ...
And speaking of that "not a race", the pond is pleased to note that the reptiles could at last bring themselves to mention the "L" word at the top of the day's digital page ...
Simplistic Simon scribbling about Victorian lockdowns? Wake up sleepy Simon, it's golden Gladys who's bunged on the latest lockdown, as the likes of Jon Faine were cruelly keen to point out ... sending the cockroaches and unhappy reptiles into a frenzy ...
Not to worry, just as there's a climate denialist for every occasion in lizard Oz land, so Killer Creighton was out and about, and drawing the pond's attention away from that nostalgic trip down memory lane with the Terminator and Jolly Joe ...
Meanwhile, Australians who prefer to be alive rather than killed by a virus, and wondering whatever happened to the vaccination roll out - apparently it's not a race - might just want to take Killer's talk of authoritarian hubris over liberal values, and shove it up his arse ... or perhaps make him wear a mask so he might experience yet another deeply Freudian psychic shock to his system ... the point being, would you rather have a US response to the pandemic, or a state premier response, or a Killer response?
Let's hope that Killer is never given a chance to dictate government policy, and instead is left to burble away about the thoughts of French economists in 1850 as a way to respond to a current pandemic ...
Or speaking of picks, what about the one left out of Killer's choices? That one about the good fortune of not having a mask-fearing Killer in charge.
Now that's a pick the pond can make quite easily before wrapping up with a Rowe ... with more Rowe as usual here ...
Of course the pond enjoyed that echo of the way it started the day with blathering Barners and a rorter rewarded, but found the reference to Lady Wakehurst Drive a little outside the pond's comprehension ... perhaps this might help others, in the way that it helped the pond ...
And if that doesn't tidily draw together Barners, Scotty from marketing, nudity, COVID, lost in the bush, lost in the rorting, not a race, and the thoughts of Killer Creighton, the pond is in the wrong game ...
"One major causality was Mr Chester." You'd think that using error-prone words would make the reptiles just a little more alert to making sure they use the right word.
ReplyDeleteHmm. Dunno if its the reptile author, the "contract" subed or the word processor anticipating and filling in which was then not noticed.
DeleteUnder the picture, for instance, it says: "Darren Chester has lashed out a Barnaby Joyce..." which has also gone unnoticed. But then, a lot of things go unnoticed on the web.
The IGR is produced by Treasury, that is, by economists, about whom there is the belief that they would say:
ReplyDelete"It works in practice, but does it work in theory?” This joke is so commonly applied to economists that no one even knows who said it originally. The idea fits with the stereotype of economists as out-of-touch theory-obsessed philosophers, wasting time arguing about what would happen in a made-up world of their own devising, while all around them the real world unfolds in ways that are totally different."
ReplyDeleteNBER working papers are generally readily available, so I downloaded the one which ‘Killer’ cites. I hoped to find a source for the quote he attributes to Sood only about ‘mathematical models’ justifying lockdown, so I guess that came from telephone or e-mail communication with Sood only. Or, as they say in proper publications ‘pers.com.’
Early discussion in the actual paper says ‘While social distancing is an important mechanism to avoid COVID-19 spread, the studies that use mobility tracking data find only modest additional social distancing responses following SIP policies’ - and quotes several other papers. They go on to mention that, in the USA, high infection rates were associated with low education, overcrowding, particular ethnic profiles - or, in fewer words, poverty is a health hazard.
It also follows that there was big gap between what lockdowns specified, and what actually happened. There was ample evidence of that in Australia, as various self-entitled people just went on their merry way.
So ‘lockdown’ was not really analysed. OK - that suited ‘Killer’, and the DWAGs of Sky, and Catallaxy. But our Killer was just a bit too cute in how he handled the rest of this paper. He does quote part of their conclusion -
“We do not estimate the effect of “ideal” SIP policies or of improved compliance with SIP policies, but rather evaluate the “real world” impact of SIP policies that were implemented.”
but - perhaps he had filled his quota of words for the day (I’m sure there would be a good reason!) - he did not continue with their real conclusion, which says -
“In light of this evidence, continued reliance on SIP policies to slow COVID-19 transmission may not be optimal. Instead, the best policy response may be pharmaceutical interventions in the form of vaccinations and therapeutics when they become available. Early evidence suggests that initial vaccination efforts have led to large reductions in COVID-19 incidence. Policy efforts to promote vaccination are thus likely to have large positive impacts.”
I mean, he would not have left that out because it would reflect badly on the Trump in the Land of the Free, and even worse on our Prime Announcer here in Girtby, would it? Would he?
The only problem with that non-peer reviewed "conclusion" is that it takes a considerable time to develop and produce an "effective" vaccine (ie at least 80% infection prevention combined with significant transmission reduction) whereas a "SIP" regime can be effectively implemented in just a few days. Also significant numbers of people will avoid vaccination whereas compulsory lockdown is harder to sabotage or avoid.
DeleteSo, lockdowns were implemented and enforced while waiting.
But in any case, is Sood et al basically saying that if there isn't a vaccine then don't do anything because nothing else will actually reduce the death toll ? All they've actually claimed is that it "may not be optimal".
Although our Killer dropped Bastiat's name into his column - seems he, and
DeleteVirat Agrawal Jonathan H. Cantor Neeraj Sood Christopher M. Whaley, did not engage in anything like that 'unseen', GB. Perhaps it is a version of the old joke about economists - 'assume a vaccine'.
Ok, so Killer C would like to introduce us to yet another 'NBER paper' which would, of course, not be peer reviewed.
ReplyDeleteIf interested, you can watch a 12:57 minute video of the team leader, Neeraj Sood, presenting what he considers sound data and arguments. Or you can read a nice short presentation in some papers printed in Nature - which may or may not have had peer review but at least they're scientific:
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/06/09/872441984/modelers-suggest-pandemic-lockdowns-saved-millions-from-dying-of-covid-19
Or if you are really bored with a lot of time on your hands, you can read a couple of analytical posts that describe 'excess deaths' and what can or cannot be learned from them. One by the Australian Bureau of Statistics:
https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/measuring-excess-mortality-australia-during-covid-19-pandemic
And one by WHO:
https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covid-19-estimating-global-excess-mortality
Or, you can just contemplate how all the different implementation of SIPs (Shelter In Place - American for 'lockdown) with varying degrees of severity, varying degrees of compliance, whether applied too soon or too late, whether exited too soon etc etc could possibly be represented for various US States and 43 different countries, could be treated as just one thing. Or are we really having to ask whether those differences in application might just mean some differences in outcomes.
Thanks for the links. Came home to find a huge mess in the herpetarium and didn't know where to start cleaning up the misinformation.
DeleteOne thing I have been doing from time to time is revisiting the data (because the reptiles won't do it if it points up their errors). Instead of studying the failures it's more instructive to look at countries that succeed.
Three similar nations, two had lockdowns, one knew better.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores?country=FIN~SWE~NOR
Norway implemented some restrictions mid March and Finland at the end of that month. Seem to fit a pattern?
PS Why does he keep bringing up Sweden. See that 'hubris spike' at the end of 2020? We have this under control! Oops! Shit!
DeleteSweden is their favourite child, isn't it: no lockdown ! At least not until the higher death rate of Sweden versus Norway, Finland and Denmark became too obvious to ignore, especially from those two peaks (April-May 2020 and Nov-Dec-Jan 2020-2021).
DeleteBut loved his little bit about Australia, Malta and NZ in the last paragraph: just being an island fixed everything. Except that Britain, Japan and Taiwan are also islands, as is Fiji (well quite a few islands actually) so it all must come down to "...uniquely brilliant health bureaucrats, alongside hyper compliant populations"
GB - thank you for the further references. As you will have gathered, my abiding interest is in population dynamics (rather than showing-up the mendacity of 'opinion writers') so finding the ABS paper specially interesting. Suspect our mutual friend Befuddled is similarly inclined.
ReplyDeleteWell for both you and Bef, if either of you is interested, the video presentation by Neeraj Sood is at:
Deletehttps://www.nber.org/affiliated-scholars/researchspotlight/neeraj-sood-discusses-shelter-place-policies-and-excess-mortality
I haven't been quite able to inure myself to sit through it all, yet.
Showing up the mendacity of 'opinion writers' is quite Sisyphean really. Though obviously the 'anti-lockdown' thing is a definite reptile, and wingnut in general, campaign presently.
It's really just a bit of therapy to pick away at the corner of some piece of misinformation and watch it unravel.
DeleteMind you, it doesn't achieve anything because we are preaching to the choir here and the majority of people have a baffling lack of curiosity matched by a bovine indifference to their fate.
Nicely put Befuddled, and, yes, it is therapeutic.
DeleteI agree that it's therapeutic in the sense that it occupies time that might otherwise be spent going barnygargles.
DeleteBut no, Bef, people have a lot of curiousity: they want to know all about TV stars, pop stars, footballers and many more things of like vein. They're mostly just not curious about things they have no connection with, like the fate of the planet, for instance. Must know they'll have zero effect even if they were to dedicate their whole being to it.
I recall reading a few years ago about an African-American lady who'd spent the best part of her lifetime campaigning against the death penalty in a US state only to see it later cancelled (ooh more cancel culture !) without any connection to her - it was just something for which its "time had come" as it would have without any input from her.
The lives of most of us are just a lot like that.