Saturday, February 28, 2026

In which the pond sends many reptiles to the archives, but must pay the price for the folly with the Ughmann and a "Ned" Everest climb ...

 

Pakistan at war with Afghanistan?

Sorry, this is the navel-gazing, fluff-gathering lizard Oz, and whatever this was, which briefly flashed across the digital edition of the Australian Daily Zionist News last night ...



Also sorry, this is a day when much of the reptile output must be consigned to the intermittent archive.

Where others might have chosen to focus on the absurd spectacle of David Speirs deciding to run as an independent, the lizard Oz decided to stick their oar into the croweater water with a top of the page splash:



EXCLUSIVE
Secret tape and a $2.3m lawsuit: the blackmail sting that backfired on Peter Malinauskas
No James Bond: The blackmail sting that backfired on Peter Malinauskas
It was the sting that went wrong. The future SA Premier wore a wire to catch alleged blackmailers. But Peter Malinauskas’ James Bond fantasy has become a legal nightmare as the explosive recordings surface.
By Stephen Rice

That's the best the reptiles could do to muddy the waters for the man who helped them out with writers' festivals? Isn't this boiling Rice served with a side of Dame Slap?

Whatever. No doubt the great aunts on the verandah are agitated and distraught.

What's that about Pakistan at war with Afghanistan? With Hillary's snake now in overtime... (sorry, the pond now consigns the Graudian to the intermittent archive)

Forget it Jake, it's the Zionist hive mind, and this weekend it was the turn of the dog botherer to serve the faithful, even as the ethnic cleansing going on in the West Bank continued at a deadly pace ...

The warnings we ignored: how unchecked hatred led to Bondi
Authorities’ failure to act fanned the flames of hate
For more than two years, authorities turned a blind eye to escalating extremism and rising antisemitism. We may never know if the December 14 terror attack could have been prevented, but the catastrophic failure to confront the ugliness leading up to it is undeniable.
By Chris Kenny
Associate Editor (National Affairs)

Frank's opening collage said it all ...



... so the pond left the hate mongering at that.

Ditto this, as Maley kept on banging the drum ...

11 ISIS brides, 23 kids: A nation’s diabolical mess
Australia grapples with ‘diabolic mess’ of ISIS brides’ and their children’s repatriation
Stranded Australian women in Syrian camps are using their children as a public relations tool for repatriation, forcing the nation to weigh ethical obligations against the hypocrisy of the crisis’s creators. Whatever else you say about the women, their timing has been terrible.
By Paul Maley


The pond felt the same fear it felt when confronted by a flock of nuns at St. Peters ...

The pond also left Dave howling into the King Donald wind ...

Andrew isn’t the main game, Iran is
Albanese government ‘missing in action’ as Iran crisis looms
The risk of a conflict in the Middle East is real and immediate, with consequences for Australia. The risk of King Andrew is ludicrously remote, yet this is what our Prime Minister chooses to prioritise.
By Dave Sharma



Apart from reminding the pond what it must be like to be in Ukraine or Gaza at the moment, what was Dave's idea of what we should be doing?

A serious government would be communicating to the Australian people about the heightened level of risk and reassuring them the government was assessing the situation closely and had contingencies in place.

Yep, a full blown word salad of the 'stay calm and carry on' kind.

What was that about Pakistan duking with the Taliban?

Only herpetology specialists will be interested in joining Dame Slap on planet Janet ...

Yet another Pyrrhic victory for Shane Drumgold
The Press Council’s ‘incomprehensible’ decision to back Shane Drumgold has delivered a ‘sham victory’ for the former prosecutor, forcing The Australian to republish the very misconduct findings he sought to bury.
By Janet Albrechtsen
Columnist

Frank was on fire,  and the Dame had a dictionary to hand - you never know about the word skills of the hive mind...



As well as personally ensuring Dame Slap made it into the intermittent archive, the pond, as always, is pleased to provide a link to the Press Council's wet lettuce verdict...

The pond is so over Dame Slap and the endless reverberations arising from her wretched behaviour in the Lehrmann matter...

Unfortunately all this chopping and machine gunning and archiving left the pond with few angles.

One was a now bog standard twist on climate science denialism.

Rather than feature the doom-laden future, or focus on the way that the quest for coal has ruined assorted landscapes, this is the new reptile way ...

Killing fields: ‘The general public has no idea of the enormity of what’s going on out there’
From flattened echidnas to koalas ‘finished off with a hard, sharp blow to the skull’, the inexorable rollout of colossal green energy projects in Queensland hides a dirty secret few are talking about.
By Greg Roberts

Yeah, it was more of terrifying windmills ...



The climate change challenge is urgent? 

Surely not, the pond long ago swallowed the reptile soma.

And that's how the pond ended up with the Ughmann, even though the unreformed seminarian was on a familiar path ...



The header: Treasurer urged to dismantle schemes and cut subsidies to find serious budget savings; From abolishing the Sex Discrimination Commissioner to halving tobacco taxes, a new blueprint emerges for government spending cuts.

The caption for the brilliant opening illustration, stunning in its depth and meaning, but unfortunately with the great creator going uncredited: ‘The government is not only living beyond its means, it is addicted to buying virtue and votes with other people’s money,’ says Chris Uhlmann.

The Ughmann chose to begin this 5 minute litany of whines - a useful summary of all that's currently tormenting the hive mind - by reminding reptile readers that lesbians could be bigoted and as intolerant as the hive mind is of them - and dammit, the Ughmann, being an unreformed seminarian, was at one with them.

The Treasurer is seeking serious budget savings; it is our duty to assist. Conveniently, this week the Sex Discrimination Commissioner was back in court, this time defending the agency’s decision to bludgeon the Victorian-based Lesbian Action Group into accepting transgender women at its events.
The lesbians argue that a trans‑woman lesbian is better described as a heterosexual man, a category that rationally excludes itself from polite lesbian society.
The Sex Discrimination Commissioner Anna Cody is seeking to beat this bigotry out of them and has argued in a separate case before the Federal Court that sex is not confined to being a biological concept.

The pond will note that the reptiles were generous with distracting illustrations, starting with this .. . Members of the Lesbian Action Group outside Federal Court in Melbourne on Monday. Picture: Elke Meitzel.



The Ughmann then displayed the sort of casuistry that is a hallmark of the Jesuit way ...

Casuistry dates from Aristotle (384–322 BC), and the peak of casuistry was from 1550 to 1650, when the Society of Jesus (the Jesuits) used casuistic reasoning, particularly in administering the Sacrament of Penance (or "confession").

Sorry, the pond could have gone the Opus Dei angle, but that had to do as a way of evoking the fragrant nature of the unreformed seminarian's deeply witty logic ...

In case the commissioner has failed to notice, “sex” is on the lid of the tin her agency comes in. Ergo, if sex is unmoored from meaning, the office vanishes inside its own logic and abolishes itself.
Let’s bank the savings and thank the commissioner and her poly-pronouned staff for this national service. This is an unusually helpful intervention from bureaucrats, and there should be more of this kind of innovative self-cancelling. The Albanese government also can bank the cash from junking the annual Women’s Budget Statement, given female is now a dodo designation.
It is difficult to determine how much abolishing the Sex Discrimination Commissioner and related staff would save taxpayers because the budget is warehoused inside the Australian Human Rights Commission. According to its last annual report, the total cost of the whole shebang was about $42m.

The reptiles helped out with the Ughmann's fantasy life with the next snap ... Sex Discrimination Commissioner Anna Cody. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman



Time to put aside the small potatoes bigotry and get on to the real point of the litany, a snowflake whine about pretty much everything ...

This is small potatoes in the search for meaningful budget savings, so let’s just abolish the lot. The commission has become an activist grievance factory and there is already plenty of that in the private sector. In the real economy, government expansion crowds out private enterprise. Curiously, grievance production appears to be perfectly inelastic.
Which is why we can also punt the Environmental Defenders Office. This agency has received about $3m in federal grants in the past two years. In that time it has been comprehensively towelled up in two cases against Santos: one to block its Barossa gas project and another to challenge the company’s clean‑energy claims.
In the Barossa case, Justice Natalie Charlesworth was scathing about the office’s work, finding that a cultural mapping exercise undertaken by its expert witness was “so lacking in integrity that no weight can be placed on them”.
Translation: file this evidence under fiction.

The pond had pretty much tuned out at this point, with the reptiles' worship of gas (and don't forget coal) coming to the fore yet again, The first gas cargo from Santos’ Barossa LNG project being loaded in January.



By now the Ughmann was on a roll ...

The costs order in the Barossa case was for more than $9m, and the office says it covered the bill using insurance, its own savings and an interest-free private loan.
That is also a very helpful insight. Jim Chalmers can cut its grants with a clear conscience, as the office has admitted that private donors are willing to bankroll its ideological jihads.
The only problem with these admittedly culturally priceless savings is that they do not begin to dent the Himalaya of debt this government has helped pile up. None of these cuts would materially alter the fiscal trajectory towards hell. To bank serious savings, the Treasurer must turn to the heavy machinery of government.
Economist Stephen Anthony, who chaired the Independent Pricing Committee into the National Disability Insurance Scheme, says big savings are hiding in plain sight.
The scheme flipped the model of supporting disability services through state grants to giving individuals a budget to “go shopping” in an invented disability marketplace. This is a market in name only, propped up by taxpayer funding, largely immune to price signals and bound by rules that blunt competition.
Anthony’s fix is simple: roll out the digital payments platform the agency built in partnership with the Commonwealth Bank, trialled with providers by mid-2023 and then inexplicably shelved. This system would screen 100 per cent of transactions in real time, pay only into verified provider accounts, automatically detect and block fraud, overpricing and scheme gaming, and generate savings he says run to billions.

Then came another visual distraction, as the Ughmann went all socialist and "tax the filthy rich", a new reptile angle: The Albanese government’s three-day childcare guarantee ‘should be tightly means‑tested, tapering out completely between household incomes of $150,000 and $200,000’. Picture: NewsWire/ John Appleyard



The Ughmann naturally had renewables in his sights.

At last a chance to restore public ownership of public resources! 

Billions more could be saved by dismantling the marketplace built for energy grifters.
Getting a handle on the money hosed at the energy transition is all but impossible, but Michael Wu of the Centre for Independent Studies has done the yeoman’s work in trying to track it down.
In a 2024 paper he estimates that federal subsidies to renewables across an acronym soup of programs have totalled about $29bn in the past decade, or roughly $2.6bn a year on average, and notes this is a conservative figure that leaves out big-ticket items such as Snowy 2.0, state schemes and the Capacity Investment Scheme.
Governments insist wind, solar, batteries and electric vehicles are already the best value for money. Excellent. Then cut every subsidy. Nothing reveals the truth of a price claim faster than exposure to the market. Technologies that are genuinely cheaper will thrive; those that are not will stop gorging at the taxpayer trough.
There is also a matter of equity. Subsidies for rooftop solar, batteries and electric vehicles flow mainly to households with good incomes while the costs are spread across everyone else through taxes, network charges and higher system costs. Labor’s energy interventions expose the new progressive project: the old demand for power to the people has become power for the privileged.

Inevitably Jimbo incurred the former seminarian's ire ...Treasurer Jim Chalmer’s choice is to ‘keep building a perpetual‑motion money-munching machine or begin dismantling it’. Picture: Dan Peled / NewsWire




He always looks so puzzled and quizzical in the reptile world.

Now please, let's hear it for gas and coal, because we've never heard the reptiles say this before ...

Then admit gas and coal to the Capacity Investment Scheme and require NSW and Victoria to develop their gas reserves. More supply, lower prices. Energy markets behave like other markets when governments stop engineering scarcity. Cutting electricity prices, rather than subsidising them, would lift productivity, ease inflation and deliver relief no rebate can match.
The Albanese government’s three-day childcare guarantee removed the activity test for the first three days of subsidised care and extended support to families earning up to about $530,000 a year, under a program now costing about $16bn a year. Why give money to the rich? The subsidy should be tightly means‑tested, tapering out completely between household incomes of $150,000 and $200,000. On reasonable assumptions, that kind of cap would strip subsidies from high-income households and free up several billion dollars a year in savings.
Reverse the decision to cut Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme co-payments and freeze indexation. The indexed model at least asked people who used more medicines to share modestly in rising costs; locking co-payments in place simply shifts that burden on to taxpayers. What looks compassionate at the pharmacy counter is regressive in the budget.

Finally there came a desperate attempt by Frank to show that he was on fire ...Organised crime has fiery grip on Australia's illicit tobacco trade. Artwork: Frank Ling



That inspired the Ughmann to cry out for more deaths by way of smoking ...

On the flip side, cut the tobacco excise in half and freeze it. The architects of relentless twice-yearly excise hikes can take a bow. They pushed prices to the point where they spawned a thriving black market, enriched criminals, gutted tax revenue and herded ordinary Australians into the illicit market. Legal tobacco excise collections have more than halved from $16bn a year in 2020 to about $7.4bn in the past financial year. The government is now spending hundreds of millions policing a problem its own price signals created. Punitive taxation has not crushed demand; it has merely changed suppliers.
So, here is the Treasurer’s choice. He can keep building a perpetual‑motion money-munching machine or begin dismantling it. The first step is recognising the truth: the government is not only living beyond its means, it is addicted to buying virtue and votes with other people’s money.

So there you have it. The Ughmann pretty much summarised all that's malicious and nasty going down in the hive mind.

Speaking of getting rid of things, TT was on a similar sort of roll last week, and as the pond has an unendurable Everest to go, it's time for a break ...



You see, there was a dire price to pay for the pond's winnowing.

The pond had created room for a fifteen minute ramble by "Ned" through ancient times:



The header: Governing from the gut: 30 years on, John Howard spills the secret of his success; On the eve of the 30-year anniversary of becoming PM, John Howard talks the most dangerous moment of his time in office, his fear of failure, the keys to 11 years in the office, and the Howard-Costello double act.

The caption for Emilia's work joining the chortling clowns in a collage: Paul Costello, left and John Howard share a laugh. Artwork by Emilia Tortorella.

Fifteen bloody minutes of "Ned" keeping company with the lying rodent!

It was too much for a possum to bear. It was like climbing Mars' biggest mountain, which definitely shades your average Everest.

But the pond gets it. The current prospects are dismal, what with the beefy boofhead from down Goulburn way probably just a seat warmer, and not helped by Susssan's scarpering and setting up a byelection that will happen sooner rather than later.

What else can two old farts do than wander down golden-tinted memory lane, recalling triumphant times?

Memory, all alone in the moonlight
I can dream of the old days
Life was beautiful then

I remember the time
I knew what happiness was
Let the memory live again

The pond saw no reason to interrupt this bout of talkaholism, of the kind that doddery old gents like to indulge in.

Let them have at it, and let correspondents nod off to sleep when the mood takes them ...

The pond has noted a certain fatigue in correspondents' comments of late, and this should pretty much wear them all out...

Next week hails the 30th anniversary of John Howard’s election as prime minister on March 2, 1996, a defining event for the Liberal Party. In a remarkably frank interview Howard reveals the most dangerous moment during his time in office, his fear of failure and the keys to his 11 years in office.
Three elements, above all, made Howard the nation’s second longest prime minister after Sir Robert Menzies. They were his intuitive grasp of the character of the Australian people, his ceaseless efforts to maintain the uncontested support of the party room for the entire time and his unique executive power troika involving Peter Costello as treasurer and Alexander Downer as foreign minister.
Success over 11 years, however, was delivered by another element, too easily forgotten and barely mentioned in polite company – Howard was driven by a relentless, almost unquenchable personal ambition to become prime minister and, once in the job, was tenacious in his repeated refusal to stand aside. Howard was as ambitious as Bob Hawke in his seeking the highest office and more successful than Hawke in keeping it.
Over four election victories Howard’s success with the public and his support within the parliamentary party became self-reinforcing factors.
This circle, for a long time, was unbreakable until the public broke it at the 2007 election in favour of Kevin Rudd, an opponent whom Howard had misread.
It started with gun laws
Howard was a ruthless pragmatist but a conviction politician. He absorbed advice but on every big decision he relied on something else – his instinct. He governed from his brain but also from his stomach. Surveying every big decision – on gun reform, the GST, halting the Tampa, labour market reform and going to war in Iraq – Howard reacted instinctively. For better or worse, he knew what he was going to do.
When the author put this to Howard, he confirmed it. “You’ve explained it well,” he said. “I mean, I governed, on big issues, largely by instinct.” It started with the gun laws: “My instinct after Port Arthur was, ‘Gosh, what’s the point of having this huge majority if you don’t do something?’ I did and it worked.”

Cue the first of many triumphant interruptions: Then-PM John Howard, with outline of what appears to be bullet proof vest visible under his suit jacket, tries to placate hostile pro-gun rally in Sale, Victoria. Following the Port Arthur massacre, two federally funded gun buyback and voluntary surrenders resulted in more than a million firearms being collected or destroyed. Picture: Ray Strange



From that time, Howard’s instinct drove the critical decisions – often they took weeks or months to finalise, but Howard knew his instinct from the start. It was a successful but risky way to run the nation – it led to the Iraq war decision and the supra-danger of the GST that nearly finished him.
Yet Howard’s leadership is conspicuous for its long era of political stability. The contrast with its bookends is stunning. For the 15 years before Howard became prime minister and in the nearly 20 years since his departure politics has been rived by leadership turbulence and chronic challenges, an affliction more prevalent in the Liberals than the Labor Party.
Few people see much parallel between Howard and Anthony Albanese, but there is a singular parallel – their fixation on stability. Consider the Liberal leadership rollcall after Howard left the stage: Brendan Nelson, Malcolm Turnbull, Tony Abbott, Turnbull again, Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton, Sussan Ley, Angus Taylor. That’s eight changes of leadership in 19 years. Howard, by contrast, never faced a ballot between 1995 and 2007. A remarkable record.
He governed by command through consultation. Since Howard’s departure in 2007 the Liberals have pretended to follow his model but have never remotely duplicated his success.
Howard and Costello: the double act
In extensive interviews with Howard and Costello for this three-part anniversary series, the two principal figures have revealed the flashpoints that nearly brought them undone, the reasons for their success and the nature of the extraordinary Howard-Costello partnership, highly effective but loaded for an explosion that never came.
Asked to rate the Howard government, former Liberal MP and Howard minister Abbott told the author: “I believe this was our most recent best government. It was the last truly successful government that we have had because it wasn’t just a political success – winning four elections – it was a policy success with tax reform, workplace relations reform, welfare reform, improvements in living standards and a major boost to our global standing with examples like the East Timor intervention.”

At this point the reptiles inserted an embedded item which eluded the pond and which also didn't turn up in the archived version of "Ned's" Everest climb.

With a sigh of relief - sometimes failure can provide a tremendous sense of relief - the pond refused to offer a cartoon as an alternative and instead moved on, if only to brood about the man who lacked the ticker...

Asked to rate Howard, Abbott said: “Plainly he’s right up there with (Robert) Menzies and he surpasses (Malcolm) Fraser. I am tempted to say he is at least as good as and arguably better than Menzies because I think political leadership is getting harder all the time and it was tougher in Howard’s time than in Menzies’ time.
“Costello, as treasurer, was critically important and, to be honest, he doesn’t get enough credit for the role he played and the economic reforms he delivered.
“I’ve got to say, had Costello been of a different character he could easily have undermined Howard and made Howard’s position impossible, but he didn’t, he chose not to do that.”
Contemporary government in Australia is anchored in a rare but proven model – an outstanding prime minister and an outstanding treasurer, and a capacity for them to work together. Hawke and Paul Keating were the Labor model from 1983 to 1991; Howard and Costello the Liberal model for 11 years.
But longevity takes its toll. Howard stayed beyond his natural time. Asked if he should have stood down for Costello, Howard said: “I don’t have any regrets. I mean I regret the fact that we lost the 2007 election. But there was an overwhelming feeling in the parliamentary party that I had a better chance of winning than anybody else.”
Why Costello didn’t challenge
In 2006 Costello told Howard he should resign to allow a smooth transition – Costello felt that was in the interests of the Liberal Party, Australia and Howard himself. Costello, unlike Keating, declined to challenge.
“Am I upset Howard didn’t go?” Costello asked. “Well, I think the country would be better off if he had gone.” Reflecting on his decision, Costello said: “You had to be prepared to tear down the leader. I didn’t think that would be good for the Liberal Party or for the country. I think you know I was probably the most reformist treasurer in Australian history. There’s only two candidates for that, there’s Keating and there’s me, so even if you take another view, you’d have to say the second most reformist treasurer in Australian history.”
There was nothing inevitable about the Howard prime ministership – it was built by Howard, brick by brick. Despite his impressive 1996 victory over Keating no observers at that time believed Howard would win four elections and come second to Menzies on longevity. Even today, people are still confused about how he did it.

Again the pond failed to record the reptile embed, and again the pond moved on with a sense of relief ...

The answer is to see Howard in a prime ministerial journey of growing confidence and daily learning, with a deeply astute reading of Australian sentiment. Ultimately, the answer resides in judgment. Howard’s success is based on a remarkable ability to discern when to stay cautious and when to strike with political aggression. When he was cautious he was very cautious; and when he was aggressive he was very aggressive.
Howard as prime minister was shaped by two competing compulsions – he championed social stability yet he drove economic and cultural change. Howard said he wanted Australians to be “relaxed and comfortable” while he pioneered a series of initiatives that changed the country. For a decade, Labor struggled and never got a precise fix on him. Howard was an unusual conservative – more conspicuous for what he changed than for what he maintained, much more of a change agent than Menzies, yet looking like a reassuring friendly uncle.
Consider the contrast. While Howard championed the monarchy, the flag, patriotism, family values, the US alliance, Christian norms, social conservatism, the Anzac ethos, rejection of an apology to the Indigenous people, rejection of gay marriage, respect for institutions, distrust of the multicultural ethos and upheld every conservative tradition, he also promoted with varying success a long series of decisive changes – witness the GST, the showdown on the waterfront, border protection, war commitments in Afghanistan and Iraq, reformed gun laws, labour market deregulation and then Work Choices, family tax benefits, mutual obligation in welfare reform, the Northern Territory intervention – while his government secured, through Costello, repeated budget surpluses, the elimination of federal debt, privatisations and Reserve Bank independence.
Howard made the Liberals a party of social and economic attack, yet this was confounding to many of his opponents.

For some reason, the pond also couldn't score the AV distraction described as Paul Kelly joins Claire Harvey to discuss the 30th anniversary of John Howard's election

Nor could the archived version capture anything but the caption. 

But these were just droplets of mercy for the pond, too busy drowning in the deep end of the pool

The month before his election, Howard said: “I give you this pledge: I want to do everything in my power to preserve the social fabric of this nation.” He wanted people to be proud of their history and their Western civilisational heritage. He said: “I believed very strongly in the doctrine that an attack was the best form of defence when it came to something we believed in.”
The year he took office Howard said: “I think I am fairly mainstream. I can’t be, in any way, typecast as an establishment figure.” He was the conservative as populist, the champion of middle-class self-improvement, and created an opportunistic cultural code for his prime ministership – he embodied the “mainstream” mob and felt sure that “mainstream” conveyed both strength and popularity. This was a different brand of conservatism to Menzies, suited to a different time.
Howard’s battlers
Howard recruited the “mainstream” mob against the pro-Labor sectional and progressive interests and proved, to their shock, the appeal of social conservatism and the extent to which the public believed in the traditions of family, nation, responsibility and sovereignty.
Howard was ruthless in delivering for his voting constituencies: small business, the lower middle-income legions known as the Howard battlers, the over-55-year-olds and traditional families. He offered them benefits, bribes and ideological assurance.
He became a hate figure among progressives because he specialised in exposing the flaws in their ideology. Over the years a progressive minority launched a furious moralistic campaign against him, accusing him of waging a culture war, essentially over three issues: his ineptitude on Indigenous policy and inability to come to terms with the apology; his brutal exploitation of the Tampa affair to elevate border protection over asylum-seeker demands; and his Iraq war commitment aligned with US president George W. Bush and the subsequent revelation Iraq did not possess a WMD capability. The origin of Australia’s contemporary cultural split dates back to the political fragmentation over Howard’s agenda.

Then the reptiles decided to rub it in, with another triumph ... John Howard claims victory for the Coalition, and become Prime Minister, in 1996. Picture: Michael Jones



The dangerous GST moment
Yet Howard’s golden run almost never happened. Herein lies the sheer knife-edged nature of political life. It is not for the faint-hearted.
Howard revealed that his most dangerous moment as prime minister came with the 1998 re-election on the GST after a single term as PM. The advice from Liberal Party federal director Lynton Crosby on election night was that his exit poll was 53-47 against Howard and pointed to the government’s defeat. Howard immediately broke the bad news to his wife, Janette, and their three children at Kirribilli House.
He told the author: “I thought if that poll were borne out, I would lose the election and I would be seen as having failed – that having got there, people would say, ‘Oh, he travelled over a lot of bodies to get there, and he gets this huge majority (in 1996) which is largely an anti-Keating vote.’ That’s what they would have said. I’d have been seen as failed.
“Richard, my youngest son and youngest child, engaged in a bit of gallows humour, like ‘we can play more golf, Dad.’ It was tough on the family. I felt a bit that I might have let them down and also my colleagues.
“I had thought in the lead-up to the poll that I could well go down as a one-term prime minister. I was thinking: What will I be remembered for, except squandering this huge majority, maybe for guns reform, but guns would grow in retrospect. Tax reform, yeah, but they’d say, you were stupid because you tried to win on tax.”
‘Amazed we got away with it’
Asked about the high-risk GST campaign, Costello said: “I was very worried. The thing about the GST is, it’s not normal tax reform. A GST taxes all goods, all services, all people, every day. Keating in the ’93 campaign said it was a life-changing tax. You get up in the morning, you use your toothbrush, it’s got GST, your toothpaste has GST; you turn on your light, it’s got GST; you turn on the toaster, it’s been paid with GST; you get in your car, it’s got GST, your petrol’s got a GST, your car insurance has GST. Every person, every day. When you look back, I’m amazed we got away with it.”
There is one reason the government got away with it – in hundreds of interviews, Costello never made a single mistake – not one. No other politician could have delivered that performance. He was haunted daily by John Hewson’s blunder in the 1993 campaign trying to explain how the GST would affect the cost of a birthday cake, knowing another blunder would be fatal.
“Every day on talkback radio they’d invite people to call in,” Costello said. “Tell me how the GST will apply to racehorse winnings. I remember that one. What will it do to your TAB bets? What will it do to timeshare, I mean timeshare holiday apartments? Of course, the Labor Party’s ringing in and getting their people to ring in. One error and it’s gone.”

At last Petey boy made the pictorial cut ...Peter Costello was acutely aware of the dangers of the GST debate: ‘One error and it’s gone’. Picture: Getty Images 




Brave lad, though perhaps not so brave, perhaps lacking a little ticker ...

The stakes for Howard were highly personal because the July 1997 decision to run on tax reform spearheaded by the GST was his personal decision, though strongly backed by Costello who took responsibility for designing the package. Howard won with his majority reduced from 45 to 12 seats with the Labor opposition under Kim Beazley taking 18 seats from the Coalition and winning the two-party-preferred vote 51-49 per cent. Howard survived – and probably attempted the GST reform – only because of his big initial 1996 majority.
The 1998 election was the pivotal point in the Howard prime ministership. Taking a huge risk, Howard had avoided a one-term debacle. Defeat would have condemned his political gamble and destroyed Liberal Party self-belief. Instead of being the nation’s second longest serving prime minister, Howard would have been dismissed as a “oncer” and a failure, a PM not fit for the job. Labor, having ruled for five terms under Hawke and Keating, would have been back in power after just three years. The Liberals would have sunk into crisis.
But something else happened: Howard and Liberals had the genius to turn this narrow win into a triumph. Crosby said: “We used the GST and the victory to build the idea of Howard as the political strongman.” No other Western world leader had been re-elected on such ambitious tax reform. Howard had a new status – a re-elected conviction PM, astute at politics and brave on reform. He cultivated and rode this identity for years.
Labor could never stomach this depiction yet it gained traction. It gave the Liberals a powerful credo and it invested Howard with enhanced authority and a pathway to the future.
The Liberals vest a special status in their leader. Howard understood this and realised its full potential. After all, his first leadership from 1985 to 1989 finished in his humiliating party room removal. This loss was seared in his consciousness.
Explaining his over-arching priority as prime minister, he told Inquirer: “I invested a lot of time and effort in building personal relations with everybody in the party room. I held very strongly to the view that the most important relationship of a political leader is between him and the people he immediately leads, and the people you immediately lead are the members of the parliamentary party.”
On leadership consultation, he made a criticism of his successors: “I think the key to a lot of the turbulence that followed my time was the failure of leaders on both sides to understand that. You can never delegate that job to somebody else.”

Then came the dynamic duo in a pose reminding the pond of all the snaps it got of assorted Tamworth High School reunions which the pond never attended,  John Howard and Peter Costello at thhis (sic, because even the sub-editor nodded off) week’s Aspire conference in Sydney. Picture: Jane Dempster/The Australian



Howard prioritised the reinterpretation of the party for a new generation. While he constantly invoked Menzies, he offered a significant shift from Menzies in Liberal philosophical meaning, casting the Liberals as embodying two traditions – conservative values and classical liberalism. This was his personal conviction but designed to expand the voting base of the party, something many Liberals in recent years seemed clueless to grasp.
Having been converted in the 1980s to the so-called dries, Howard became an exponent of market forces and deregulation, and summarised his classical liberalism as “economic discipline, balancing budgets, opting for expenditure control, reforming the industrial relations system and the tax system where possible, and we went very strongly on privatisation.”
In the interview Howard said what struck him about the Australian people was “the consistency and ageless character of our identity”.
He said: “I’ve often reflected on this whole thing. The externalities have changed and the language has changed, but the essence of the Australian identity hasn’t changed. I operated on the assumption that when it came to social values we were always going to be a conservative government.” He said this was strongly supported by the senior figures – John Anderson, Costello and Downer.
Howard’s inner sanctum
These were the ministers who formed the inner sanctum. “There were four people I regularly trusted on a regular basis because I had to,” Howard said, and named them – Anderson, Costello, Downer and Peter Reith, who stayed for only the first half of the government. Anderson and Howard were close personally and politically. Anderson was the longest serving Nationals leader, following Tim Fischer and succeeded by Mark Vaile. “With all three, their word was their bond,” Howard said. Each was a dedicated coalitionist in a National Party different to that of today. Howard’s passion for Coalition arrangements derives from the immense stability the Coalition delivered his government.

There came a brief respite from the relentless scribbled hagiography with a different kind of hagiography, a hagiographic snap, meeemooories (sung in the Streisdand style) of lost power and glory days, Howard’s key men: Alexander Downer, left, John Anderson, third from left, Peter Costello, on Anderson’s right, and Peter Reith, far right. Picture: Michael Jones



While Howard and Costello had some significant policy disagreements, the big story was their concord on the economy. Costello said: “People say, oh you didn’t get on with Howard. Let me tell you, every Monday morning I sat next to him in cabinet. For 11½ years, every sitting morning I sat next to him in the PM’s office. I don’t think we ever had a fight.
“We had policy disagreements. I don’t think we ever had a policy fight. In terms of working together, it was very successful until we got to the end.
“The big overall economic policy was set by me, with more support in the early days from Howard. The big calls were: let’s balance the budget, pay off debt and ultimately let’s set up a sovereign fund to build assets, let’s broaden the indirect tax base, reduce income tax, cut capital gains tax, let’s have an ambitious micro-economic reform program. These are the things I really believed in.”
Howard is praiseworthy of Costello but careful: “I rate him very highly, I always have and I still do,” he said. “His first budget was terrific. It laid the foundation. Of course, he did a great job in construction the detail of the GST.”

And so at last to the final visual distraction, Prime Minister John Howard congratulates Federal Treasurer Peter Costello after his 1996 Budget speech.



And that was followed by "Ned's" last extended gobbet ...

Downer was the minister closest to Howard in a personal sense, a legacy of his decision to surrender the leadership to Howard in 1995. The trust between Howard and Downer ran deep. They had similar views and instincts on nearly every critical foreign policy decision from the East Timor intervention, to invoking the ANZUS Treaty, to deepening the US alliance under Bush and the Iraq war commitment.
Howard is sensitive about the forces that delivered his third election win in 2001, coming after two epic events – the stopping of the Tampa and the Al-Qa’ida attack on 9/11 when Howard was in Washington. He makes a brave call that many would contest. Howard said: “My conviction is that we would have won the 2001 election without the impact either of 9/11 or the Tampa, but it would have been a much smaller majority. It could have been a near thing.”
This assessment is critical. Howard’s critics argue he survived into a third term only because of good fortune – Tampa and 9/11. But this largely avoids the point – prime ministers must deal with emergencies on their watch and there is never any guarantee they will get it right. Tampa is the obvious example.
Howard reveals that the Norwegian government was the indirect agent that made the Tampa event happen. The Tampa was a Norwegian container ship en route to Indonesia when it rescued more than 400 asylum-seekers who intimidated the captain and forced him to alter course for Christmas Island. The government was outraged. Downer had a futile call with Norway’s foreign minister. No result.
Howard said: “The ignition point was the final refusal of the Norwegians to tell their captain to turn around and go back to Indonesia. Our understanding under the law was that it had to return to the port from whence it came. But the Norwegians were determined to do otherwise. There was a fair amount of European disdain for the way we were handling this, particularly coming out of Scandinavia – ‘you don’t understand, you wild colonials’.
“They’re very good at lecturing others. I had no doubt then, I have no doubt now, that if the Norwegian government had changed its tune, things would have stopped there.”
When the Tampa entered Australian waters, Special Air Service troops boarded and took control of the ship. Howard’s point is obvious: he didn’t create the Tampa issue and he didn’t respond for domestic political purposes – he responded as a prime minister facing a direct challenge to the nation’s borders. The issue that infuriated his critics only enhanced Howard’s authority and cast him as a champion of sovereignty, the ultimate conservative branding.

You see, Dave?

Nothing to worry about here. No need to worry about King Donald's desire to bermb, bermb, bermb Iran, even though he'd obliterated the program earlier in the year, and even though the bermbing was simply designed to restore a treaty he'd torn up,  because .... Obama ...

All you have to do is wander down memory lane with "Ned" and soon enough you'll be as snug as a bug, deep in the hive mind, lost somewhere in the 1950s ... with not a care in the world.






Friday, February 27, 2026

In which Our Henry once again abandons Thucydides and Killer of the IPA has a fast train vision ...

 

Friday. Must everything be 12 again?

A few months ago, the musician Patrick Cosmos shared a “new unified theory of American reality” that he called “everyone is twelve now”—an attempt to explain an executive branch that endorses AI-generated videos of the president dropping poop on protesters from a shiny jet, and that replies to official press queries with the words your mom. Everyone is 12 is a strikingly effective summary of contemporary politics, but it also helps us understand why a good amount of popular culture feels as brain-numbingly dense as it currently does. Why is Nicki Minaj throwing insults at one of Cardi B’s children and generating images of her as the purple dinosaur Barney? Everyone is 12. Why is Kim Kardashian the star of a fur-swaddled drama about Bentley-driving divorce lawyers with seven-figure clothing budgets? Everyone is 12. Why has Emerald Fennell adapted one of the more chasmic and ambitious tragedies in English literature into a poppy, gooey, thuddingly literal work of sexy fan fiction? Everyone is … you get it.

Yes, the pond gets it, and it's actually an old Cosmos meme, having emerged last September,  (Cosmos by name, Cosmos theory by nature), but thank you Sophie Gilbert in The Atlantic, Why the Wuthering Heights Movie Is Infantilizing

If you want her opinion on the movie, follow the link. This is a clue ...

In some ways, that Fennell’s Wuthering Heights is this vacuous and one-dimensional feels like progress. Male directors get to make big, unserious epics all the time. (“How many times have you watched Top Gun: Maverick?” I asked my husband last night. “This month?” he replied.) Fennell, whose film made $83 million at the global box office during opening weekend, is at least proving, with sticky aplomb, how starved we as a culture are for romance. Margot Robbie, the movie’s co-star and one of its producers, has shrugged off mixed reviews; she told Vogue Australia, “I believe you should make movies for the people who are going to buy tickets to see the movies. It’s as simple as that. I love working with Emerald because she always prioritizes an emotional experience over a heady idea.” In other words, Wuthering Heights is simply giving the people what they want. And the people are 12.

The pond had thought the audience was supposed to be 14, but on second thoughts, being about 12 to read the reptiles in the lizard Oz (or watch the movie) seems about right ...

There's a remarkable amount of infantilizing going on this day, so thumbs at the ready, for the sucking thereof ...

Whenever Friday rocks around and Our Henry rolls around, the pond reverts to being 12 again.

Memories flood back, as the well-named Mr Battle instructs the class to get out their Bembricks so that we can manage to understand the pleasures of Caesar's Gallic Wars in the original Latin. Or perhaps a little later some Ovid, evoking romantic love.

Imagine then the searing disappointment at seeing Our Henry revert to reptile stock in trade with his latest rambling agonising about the Liberals.

Where's a little Thucydides, or even Tacitus, or just for the scandals, a serve of Suetonius when they're3 badly needed?

The big squeeze, like some sordid title for a Raymond Chandler novel? Or going low rent, Mickey Spillane?



The header: Can the Liberals survive the big squeeze? The history of major parties shows that, while they rarely disappear, fighting a war on two fronts can leave them too strong to die, but not strong enough to thrive.

The caption for one of those dire Emilia collages. Will she never learn to blame AI?: Angus Taylor, Pauline Hanson, Barnaby Joyce, Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers. Artwork by Emilia Tortorella

How the pond had hungered for a dash of Thucydides, or at a pinch Apuleis's Asinus Aureus, or at least the sort of contest of ideas promised in recent lizard Oz advertising ...



Mmm, that's a disturbingly bearded, ethnic figure in that ad - as if the reptiles wanted to pose as the way ahead for 12 year olds wanting to explore the world by using a phone - but never mind, on with the pond's bitter disappointment.

The contest of ideas reduced to yet another contemplate of the beefy boofhead from down Goulburn way, never the sharpest set of blades in the shearing shed:

Although Angus Taylor is beginning to make his mark, the Liberal Party’s predicament remains severe. On any objective measure, its decline is structural – embedded across almost every state and territory and steadily eroding the likelihood of a near-term return to government.
That is not to suggest imminent collapse. As Alan Ware demonstrated in his The Dynamics of Two-Party Politics (2009), it is rare in two-party systems for once-dominant major parties simply to disappear.
But while major parties seldom die, they can, like old soldiers, fade away – gradually forfeiting the organisational cohesion and electoral reach required to function as an effective opposition, let alone as a credible alternative to an entrenched governing party.
If the history of democratic politics teaches anything, it is that the danger peaks when three conditions coincide: a party’s core constituencies are threatened from both flanks of the left/right divide, making it hard to protect one flank without aggravating losses to the other; political conflict centres on high-profile issues that cut across its own ranks and cannot be indefinitely fudged; and social and demographic change erodes the electoral foundations on which it once relied.
That pattern was evident in the disintegration of the American Whigs, torn apart by slavery in 1856. It reappeared in the marginalisation of the British Liberal Party after the First World War. The Liberals had been the beating heart of Victorian politics; by the early 1930s, they were a spent force.

The pond does appreciate that the hole in bucket man was trying with those historical references, but the reptiles had to ruin the moment by dragging in Nigel, busy making plans ... Reform UK leader Nigel Farage speaking during the weekly session of Prime Minister's Questions in the House of Commons in London. Picture: AFP



Talk about ways of chilling any notion of a contest of ideas. 

Luckily Our Henry didn't immediately revert to populist demagoguery, he stayed with 20th century history ...

The immediate pressure was a two-sided squeeze: Conservatives to the right, Labour to the left. The deeper cause was structural. As elite cohesion weakened and politics became more polarised, Liberal indecision proved unsustainable.
Electoral reform accelerated the decline. The Representation of the People Act 1918 and the Equal Franchise Act 1928 transformed the electorate, enlarging the working-class vote and enfranchising women (who by 1929 formed an electoral majority), with neither group having natural Liberal attachments.
Boundary redistribution magnified the impact, eliminating smaller county seats that were predominantly Liberal while multiplying the industrial constituencies that became Labour strongholds and the suburban constituencies that underpinned a resurgent Conservatism.
The consequence was not merely electoral setback but organisational fracture: rival leaderships and searing divisions that could be patched over but never resolved. That fragmentation emboldened the challengers on both flanks, reinforcing a vicious cycle of mutual recriminations, internal discord and electoral decline. The 1924 election, in Labour minister Sidney Webb’s phrase, marked “the funeral of a great party”; by 1929, any prospect of resurrection had evaporated.

The pond gamely hung in, but the reptiles kept on flinging in very distracting snaps of posing geese, One Nation SA leader Cory Bernardi, One Nation leader Senator Pauline Hanson and Barnaby Joyce doing a tv cross at the One Nation SA’s official campaign South Australian election launch. Picture: Kelly Barnes



The pond always has a conniption when Tamworth's ineradicable, eternal shame is always flung into the mix. It even sweeps away memories of Cory showing off his muscles.



Choose the nightmare you'd prefer, it's Boeuf either way ...

Our  Henry didn't help matters by shifting to contemplating the Canucks.

How they're hurting, what with ice hockey being their religion, ruined by a MAGA clown party, dancing away the night with Keystone Kash, but Our Henry didn't care and ploughed on regardless:

The same dynamics operated with even greater violence in Canada. For much of the 20th century, the Progressive Conservatives could win federally only by forging an uneasy coalition of western conservatives and disgruntled Quebecois. However, by the time of Brian Mulroney’s prime ministership (1984-1993), sustaining that coalition required concessions that satisfied neither while antagonising both.
The coalition splintered, spawning two effective rivals: the Reform Party on the right in the west and the left-leaning sovereigntist Bloc Québécois in Quebec. Caught between them, the Progressive Conservatives were annihilated in 1993, collapsing from 156 seats to two.
But neither in the UK nor in Canada were these outcomes preordained. Parties fail or succeed not only because of the structural forces they face, but because of how they respond.
Thus, before 1914 it was entirely plausible that the Conservatives – not the Liberals – would fracture on Britain’s centre-right. They appeared close to disintegration, divided between “diehards” and pragmatists, traditionalists and advocates of adaptation. Without the political genius of Stanley Baldwin, the outcome might well have been different.
Baldwin did more than restore discipline. He strengthened the party’s organisation, rebuilt its supporting networks and decisively curbed the “diehardism” of the Edwardian and post-Edwardian years. In its place he articulated a “New Conservatism” aimed at “the binding together of all classes of our people in an effort to make life in this country better in every sense of the word”.
He therefore repositioned the party to appeal to the suburban middle class and the aspirational working class, aligning rhetoric and policy – including sweeping social reforms – with that broadened base.
The Liberals, by contrast, remained mired in internal conflict. Personal animosities and strategic divergences paralysed the party’s machinery and squandered its intellectual advantages. A movement rich in ideas proved incapable of converting insight into votes.
Leadership proved equally decisive in Canada, where the Reform Party absorbed the remnants of the Progressive Conservatives and reconstituted itself as the Conservative Party. Its leader, Stephen Harper, built a disciplined, highly centralised electoral apparatus, replacing Canada’s long tradition of regional brokerage – which had contributed to the previous collapse – with coalitions formed by micro-targeting key constituencies.

Sheesh, couldn't the hole in bucket man at least have referenced Caesar overthrowing the Republic by way of civil war

Must the pond endure yet another populist sighting? Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni attends a ceremony marking 97th anniversary of Lateran Pact with Vatican, on February 17, 2026. Picture: AFP




Sheesh, what next? A treatise on the perils of being Pauline?

Just as importantly, he recalibrated the party’s ideological stance, softening some of Reform’s polarising commitments while stripping away the Progressive Conservatives’ lingering ambiguities. As Harper put it, there were “two things you have to do”. The first is “to pull conservatives, to pull the party, to the centre of the political spectrum”. But “if you’re really serious about making transformation, you also have to pull the centre of the political spectrum toward conservatism”.
Executing that dual movement is exceptionally difficult. Without strategic clarity Harper could not have succeeded. And that same clarity is evident in the other movements that have travelled from the right’s fringes to the centre of power.
Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National are cases in point. Both Meloni and Le Pen were determined to be more than rabble rousers. Much as Nigel Farage is trying to do in the UK, each spent years normalising and institutionalising her party – subduing internal “diehards”, consolidating leadership authority and methodically expanding and professionalising grassroots organisation. That allowed them to compete effectively with the previously dominant centre-right parties they then squeezed to near extinction.
It is precisely those ambitions – and the skill to realise them – that Pauline Hanson has yet to demonstrate. That is not to denigrate her resilience. The heroine in Pearl White’s The Perils of Pauline weathered fires, kidnappings and sabotage; our Pauline has weathered expulsions, bankruptcy, imprisonment and repeated anathemas.

If the pond had wanted that level of insight, it would have gone with a cartoon ...

Not this ...



... but this ...



The reptiles made things even more dire by flinging in a snap of the lying little rodent with a Canuck, Former prime minister of Canada Stephen Harper with former prime minister of Australia, John Howard.




Our Henry concluded his pack of bromides with a dullard summary:

But confident that protest votes will guarantee One Nation a Senate foothold, she has opted to ride periodic waves of discontent instead of undertaking the exacting task of building a conventional political party.
That choice heightens rather than mitigates the risks confronting the centre-right. Because One Nation poses no credible claim to office – and because the electoral system partially insulates the Liberals from the forces eroding their base – complacency becomes seductively easy. Internal fractures are tolerated, strategic decisions postponed and structural frailties left to compound.
If that complacency endures, incremental losses – to the teals on one flank and One Nation on the other – will steadily accumulate, reducing the Liberals to a diminished remnant of what was once Australia’s most electorally successful political party.
That, unless Angus Taylor can arrest the drift, is what lies ahead: an ageing party, sustained by a narrowing cohort of older voters, locked in a two-front contest it cannot win. At a time that cries out for clear direction, it would continue to falter – a fading presence of glories past, too strong to die, too weak to thrive.

Not even a line or two from Sir Henry Newbolt's Vitaï Lampada, and the need to play up and play the game?

How could the pond be twelve again in that dismal fading of the light?

What else? 

With Our Henry at last failing in his Zionist duties, the pond was pleased to see that the reptiles had rushed in the lesser Leeser to provide reinforcements.

Uni leaders must own their failures on antisemitism
For too long people in leadership dismissed the need to take strong measures against antisemitism. That includes people in the leadership of our universities.
By Julian Leeser

Sheesh, the pond had personally supervised that placement in the intermittent archives, only to get to the end and see it was an extract of a speech freely available outside the hive mind paywall.

That's more than enough of that then.

And for some perverse reason - what with his beat being Thursday - Jack the Insider was around sounding like he had read Sir Henry ... (the poet, not the pundit, the one where the Gatling's jammed, the square's broken, the sand runs red with blood).

If Pauline and Barnaby win the next battle, Labor wins the war
Lying doggo is not an option. Policy work is needed. The Coalition needs to get its hands dirty and take the fight to One Nation.
By Jack the Insider
Columnist

Nah, there they were again, the triptych of terror ...

The pond personally supervised that listing in the intermittent archive but having been there and done that with Our Henry, thought a teaser trailer would suffice ...




Will the reptiles ever own up to the way that their migrant and black bashing, and Islamophobia, and hostility to woke, and DEI and women and the whole damn thing have paved the way for Pauline?

And so these perilous times have a lot to do with their feckless ways? Just like Faux Noise on a King Donald steroids overdose?

Probably not, though it might help explain them going quiet on the Tame matter. The pond had organise a couple of gags but they turned out to be useless ...






And so off to what, bizarrely, perversely, turned out to be a Killer delight ...



The header: It is easy to dismiss Australia’s $90bn high-speed rail dream, but it’s worth a crack; Building a high-speed rail network might give an increasingly depressed nation something to look forward to and be proud of. I’d rather governments ‘waste’ money on capital works than handouts too.

The rather dull caption for the rather dull snap: Anthony Albanese addresses the National Press Club of Australia in Canberra. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

You could have knocked the pond down with a four minute read of the Killer of the IPA feather.

Killer had done a pond and caught the intercity train - an experience the pond is planning to replicate again at the end of this financial year - and as a result he'd had a most un-Killer transformation.

He'd had a vision, a veritable dreaming.

The pond didn't want to intrude, just wanted to luxuriate in the grand plan: 

In early January I took a train from Melbourne to Sydney for the first time. I had plenty of time on the 11-hour trip to consider the state of Australia’s rail infrastructure given the train had no wi-fi. Even in first class not a power point in sight.
Surely, with federal and state debts approaching $1.7 trillion, modernising carriages or even improving the track, so the XPTs could travel their potential 160km/h, could have been easily affordable? There is a distinct 1990s vibe about the features on the Sydney-Brisbane line too.
Australia is terrible at public infrastructure, paying too much for the wrong things, for the wrong reasons. Snowy Hydro 2.0, which the Turnbull government said would cost $2bn, is expected to come in at $20bn, if it’s ever finished. One shudders to think of the final cost of Victoria’s Suburban Rail Loop, which has already blown out to an estimated $216bn.
Dan Andrews quashed a proposal from a consortium to build a high-speed rail link from the airport to the city, which would’ve cost Victorian taxpayers only $5bn.
So, yes, it is easy to dismiss as fanciful the latest proposal for high-speed rail between Sydney and Newcastle. Politicians of all stripes have been banging on about high-speed rail for decades, and we haven’t even done medium-speed rail. According to a 300-page report, released this week, for $90bn we could, by the late 2030s, have 200m trains travelling over 300km/h an hour between NSW’s two biggest cities.

The reptiles interrupted with a snap of an old, if somewhat slow, friend, A High Speed Train operating between the two main Australian cities, powered by renewable energy, would replace the slow and inefficient diesel-powered service. Picture: iStock




It was such a bizarre switch - the joy of replacing grubby diesel with electric power (possibly renewables?) -  that the pond drifted off into conspiracy theories.

Did the IPA see the chance for a private sector boondoggle, a chance to suck on the government teat in a bigly way, and make out like rorting bandits? Could this be the next Malware malfunctioning NBN?

And yet the dream was alive ...

“Even if you believe what they’re saying, it’s far-fetched,” University of Sydney professor David Levinson told the Financial Review, which questioned the rosy patronage assumptions and the claims that over 160,000 new homes could emerge along the route.
Big projects typically cost far more than originally planned for reasons of deliberate bias, hubris and planners’ intrinsic naivety about the hard resource constraints related to labour and skills that ultimately determine costs.
From rail lines to nuclear power plants, the West has forgotten how to build major infrastructure cheaply, suffocating the process with countless series of bureaucratic approval processes. Oxford University academic Bent Flyvbjerg even came up with the Iron Law of Megaprojects: “Over budget, over time, under benefits, over and over again.” Rail projects are typically among the worst, running at least 50 per cent over budget, he found.
On that rule of thumb taxpayers would be looking at $135bn straight up for just the Sydney-Newcastle leg of what would eventually be similar services between Melbourne and Brisbane via Canberra and Sydney.
That’s a lot, but we could afford it. It’s easy to dismiss government spending projects as inherently wasteful but this is one of the few areas where even conservative economists should agree government should play a major role.

The pond did appreciate the way the sly IPA dog had slipped in a reminder of the need to nuke the country to save the planet.

But it was just an aside, and the dreaming survived.

The pond was knocked down by that feather again, as the reptiles flung in a snap to keep the vision alive, another old friend, A Eurostar train emerges from the Eurotunnel in Coquelles, northern France. Picture: AFP




The pond never went full Tim Fischer (oops), but has always had a soft spot for trains, and catches them wherever possible, having begun early when the pond learned that the train was a reliable way to escape Tamworth's never-ending shame ...



Been there, done that, looked down from the footbridge and yearned for the big smoke, but enough with being 12 years old, on with Killer's vision:

The federal government alone already spends over $60bn a year on National Disability support, part of a broader social security budget of well over $300bn a year. It’s a matter of priorities. The perception we could do much better on rail infrastructure is probably accurate. Australia ranks 22nd in the world on infrastructure, according to IMD World Competitiveness Rankings – well behind the US (11th) and Canada (5th).
To be sure, those large nations enjoy greater population densities than Australia, whose vast distances are often forgotten by the inner-city dreamers who want French-style public transport, ideally without the taxation. France, a bit smaller than NSW, is home to 70 million people. Building a high-speed rail network between the eastern capitals might give an increasingly depressed nation something to look forward to and be proud of. It would make housing more affordable too by reducing demand for Sydney dwellings close to the city.
I’d rather governments “waste” money on capital works than handouts too. The Sydney Opera House was 1400 per cent over budget, the third-biggest overrun in history, according to Flyvbjerg (the Suez Canal at 1900 per cent topped his list). Similarly, Eurotunnel, the consortium that built the underground tunnel linking Paris and London, went 140 per cent over budget. No one would seriously argue they shouldn’t have been built.

The pond had to pinch itself one more time. 

Spend, spend, spend. Blowout, blowout in a bigly way. Abandon fiscal responsibility, embrace the new IPA ...

A costly national project might make it easier for politicians to argue against even more wasteful handouts. “Government alone will not be able to fund this, so part of the development phase is to look for those private sector partners to also bring some of that private capital into investing in high-speed rail,” Infrastructure Minister Catherine King told the ABC this week.
But government would have to fund almost all of the proposed Sydney-Newcastle line given the massive uncertainties surrounding its commercial viability.

The reptiles even slipped in a snap that seemed positively benign, Catherine King during Question Time at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman




It was the cue for Killer to embrace Big Australia and Big Australian dreaming, though the pond suspects that it will well and truly have passed over before there's the remotest chance of catching a Shinkansen in country (what a sublime experience that was, racing past Mount Fuji, waiting to devour the ekiben):

Jill Rossouw, chair of the High-Speed Rail Authority, said the project would “prepare us for the significant population growth – vastly outpacing many of our OECD peers – that the coming decades will bring”. But will it?
The economics of such a rail line is predicated on very rapid population growth, which might be about to dissipate, especially if the surge in One Nation support proves lasting. Moreover, as AI threatens to upend the white-collar world, will commuting to the CBD even be a thing by the time the trains are ready?
Before the pandemic the need for more and better infrastructure dominated the political debate. It’s understandable we’ve become cynical about government-backed infrastructure projects given our poor track record.
If the Big Australia advocates win the looming battle over population, we should put our understandable cynicism aside and get serious about high-speed rail.
Adam Creighton is Institute of Public Affairs chief economist.

Sold, the pond is fully infantilised, genuinely 12 again, dreaming of catching the Tamworth flyer (hopefully not catching fire at Murrurundi), and the pond has just the man capable of delivering the dream ...




And not a moment wasted thinking about the King! 

The long absent lord, save the speechifying King!