If the lizard Oz started off this day with a single property scare story, the pond knew it would have to reference Samantha Maiden's piece:
The Coalition’s rent scare campaign has collapsed after the very companies it cited said they never made the predictions being attributed to them, writes Samantha Maiden.
Take it away Sam:
Nobody believes him, although there is a happy ending of sorts when aliens roam the town and he opens up the School of Fabulous Fibbing.
The basic idea is that dishonesty destroys your trust and reputation and people will not believe you when the real danger arrives.
Something of a similar nature is unfolding in the increasingly deranged debate over the impact of negative gearing and capital gains tax on rising rents.
The Albanese government reckons that Treasury says the impact is $2 a week and nobody believes them.
The Coalition reckons rents could increase by 30 per cent and nobody with any brains believes that either.
They could of course. Theoretically they could go up 500 per cent. Pick a figure. It’s possible.
But is it likely?
When even the truth-tellers – the National Australia Bank and Ray White – insist they are not saying that at all, it’s a big roll of the dice for the Liberal Party to assert otherwise.
First, the National Australia Bank clarified this week that it was not predicting 30 per cent rent increases at all.
Instead, it was a hypothetical prediction of how much rents would need to rise to make it attractive for new investors, if property prices didn’t fall at all.
A kind of fantasy footaball for property investors, if you will.
Then, Ray White entered the chat with a similar prediction.
But once again, it was not a forecast of how much rents will actually rise but a hypothetical scenario about what needs to happen to deliver the same profits to new investors if property prices did not fall at all.
“We don’t do forecasts for rents,’’ the property group said.
“Ray White is not forecasting a 30 per cent rise in rents.
“In reality, we expect the adjustment to come through a combination of higher rents and softer prices.”
Got it? It seems the Liberal Party missed the memo.
Over in question time, Liberal MP Melissa McIntosh was still talking 30 per cent rent hikes.
“My question is to the Minister for Housing,’’ she said.
“Today, Australia’s biggest rental property manager, Ray White, said rents could surge by 30 per cent as a result of Labor’s toxic taxes. Is the minister damn proud of making millions of Australians pay higher rents?”
For the government, it was a case of come in spinner, given that Ray White itself had clarified it was not saying this at all.
“Really appreciate this question from the member opposite,’’ Housing Minister Clare O’Neil said.
“I’m really worried for the honourable member opposite who has asked me this question for the sheer number of mistruths she was able to pack into one question.
“Let’s go through it one by one. The first is that she has knowingly misquoted me in her question.”
What’s curious about the entire hullabaloo is that there are plenty of good and solid reasons to probe and criticise the Albanese government.
There’s no need to resort to fact-free scaremongering...
Uh huh, and indeed, but who provided all the evidence for the fact-free fear mongering?
Here Ms Maiden let every single ball go through to the keeper, though as Bangladesh just showed, that doesn't always work.
For that information you had to turn to Tory in the Weekly Beast last Friday ...
Hold on, NAB said. That was “one possible scenario” and “not a forecast”.
And on Wednesday, again in The Australian: the real estate agency Ray White “has affirmed that Jim Chalmers’ budget could lead to a 30 per cent spike in costs for tenants”.
Whoa, Ray White said. That wasn’t a forecast. More like a “modelling scenario”.
“We don’t do forecasts for rents,’’ a Ray White spokesperson told news.com.au. “Ray White is not forecasting a 30 per cent rise in rents.”
Not to be denied, on Thursday the Oz ran a further story quoting the real estate agency as saying: “The Australian has accurately represented Ray White’s analysis.”
In proper lizard Oz fashion, Tory provided a link to within the Graudian for further rebuttal ...
Critics of Labor’s tax changes claim rents could climb by up to 30%. Here’s why they probably won’t
But that's not the real point. The compelling thing is that even a fellow Murdochian couldn't stand the naked scare mongering and claptrap carry on involved in the latest lizard Oz jihad ... which brings the pond back to today.
Heck, they were at it again.
Come on down Major Mitchell, taking the hive mind back to the days when the hunt for Order of Lenin medals were about to begin ...
Economic fibs: Chalmers is using first-home buyers and renters as a smokescreen
Left-wing economists and media have spent decades misrepresenting the Hawke-Keating negative gearing backflip, while rents surge and first home buyers face negative equity.
Feel the vibe of Hawkie and the French clock lover living rent free in the hive mind:
There's a lot more ancient history to hand by following the archive link, but after that extended plunge into ancient history, the Major turned to the present, and sho 'nuff ...
The nation’s biggest residential rental agency, Ray White, concurred in the following day’s page one lead.
“Ray White, which manages 250,000 rental properties nationally … released analysis showing new investors stripped of property tax concessions … would have to raise rents by about 30 per cent.”
Chalmers and Minister for Housing Clare O’Neil criticised the reporting of the Ray White and NAB analyses on Wednesday, sticking with the budget forecast of rents up $2 a week.
They were apparently unaware The Daily Telegraph on August 15 had already published details of Sydney suburbs where rents had risen $100 a week since May.
On Thursday, the AFR reported residential property development giant Stockland had seen new home sales inquiries fall for three months. It expected no recovery until interest rates fell.
Chalmers is using first-home buyers and renters as a smokescreen. All he really wants is more revenue as the government heads to cumulative deficits he forecasts will hit $1.2 trillion by 2030.
Très drôle, and now pardon the pond if it stays in reptile survey mode ...
Near the top of the digital "news" page early on the Monday came the usual Australian Daily Zionist News outing ...
‘High Court’s challenge to foil the antisemites’: leading judge
Ian Jackman has urged the High Court to revisit its ‘dogmatic’ stance on free speech, warning antisemites are exploiting past rulings to vilify Australian Jews.
By Elizabeth Pike
Devoted herpetologists will recall Dame Slap moaning that there wasn't enough free speech and urging the High Court to offer more.
Pauline Hanson takes free speech fight to the High Court
Her battle with Mehreen Faruqi has forced Pauline Hanson to ask the High Court to be heard, and they should listen on principle alone.
Now it seems that there's way too much free speech, way too much freedumb ...
“Freedom of speech is important but no right is absolute,” Mr Merritt said.
Go tell that to Dame Slap and her whining about the perils of being Pauline.
Moral? Trust the reptiles to get you coming, and then get you going ...
Right at the top of the digital edition came the usual reptile defence hysteria, though strangely the bromancer was MIA and the reptiles gave Cameron the job of panic merchant
Fat frigates: doubts over speed, range and endurance
Australia’s $27bn Hunter-class frigates have ballooned to 10,500 tonnes, raising expert fears the warships lack the speed and range needed for the Indo-Pacific.
By Cameron Stewart
Somebody should have sent Cam a pack of drones to help him out ...
For some reason the pond was reminded of Wilcox ...
Perhaps that was only because the reptiles were wildly excited by her leaving the Nine rags ... and in true Daily Australian Zionist News fashion, they made it all about one cartoon ...
Anyone who draws attention to the deplorable ways of the current government of Israel is an antisemite, at least in the hive mind ... but maybe she was just jack of it all, in the way that each day the pond feels like taking a hammer to its screens.
As part of this day's survey, the pond should note that simpleton Simon was out and about ...
Anthony Albanese has passed two milestones in the last fortnight – one might be considered an accomplishment, though not so much the other.
By Simon Benson
Political analyst
And so on, and on the one hand the pond thinks it has a duty to correspondents, and on the other hand, simplistic Simon was too tedious a read, so the archive could handle his both siderism.
The bouffant one was also out and about, though in the usual Shanners way, he could only manage a two minute spurt which the pond personally had to save to the intermittent archive, as no one else had cared enough ...
Labor is beginning to become aware of the dire outlook for rural Australia, but there’s no sign yet of a fundamental change.
By Dennis Shanahan
What a reliable reptile he is.
Someone has to roll up the sleeves each day and scribble about job-threatening policies, and Shanners is always there ...but what's that line about "due to drought"?
Is the silly old reptile hinting that maybe climate change might be hovering into view?
And so to the reason for staging a survey.
That archive-directed teaser trailers left plenty of room for the Caterist doing an "elbows up Australia" routine ...
Please allow the immortal Rowe to set the scene...
Now on with the Caterist ...
The header: Albanese is learning all the wrong lessons from Carney’s Canada; Carney is correcting the imbalance in the housing market. Albanese, on the other hand, is frozen in the headlights.
The caption for the snap of the two grinners: Anthony Albanese with Mark Carney at Vatican City.
The quarry whispering Caterist spent a bigly five minutes using Canucks as a club for Albo's mob, but steady Canucks, the flood waters expert also spends some time clubbing Canucks, just as King Donald mounts an economic war...
Since neither of these objectives featured in his speech on budget night, however, we are drawn to the alarming conclusion that the government has abandoned the discipline of policy formation and is simply making it up as it bumbles along.
This is particularly risky in the housing market, since history shows that sudden shocks in the property sector frequently trigger recessions. An International Monetary Fund study of 122 recessions found that the housing market was the epicentre of a quarter of them. In most cases, the shocks were caused by non-market forces – that is, government intervention.
You don’t have to be Milton Friedman to conclude that we’d be in a happier place now if the Albanese administration had decided it would do nothing other than remove red tape and lower and simplify taxes.
Instead, it has thrown a succession of interventions at the market – the Housing Accord, the 1.2 million new homes target, the expanded 5 per cent deposit guarantee, and now changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax – in the hope that something will stick. Some hit the accelerator (cheaper deposits), some slam on the brake (cuts to the CGT discount) and some are simply hot air (the new homes target). Buyers, sellers, investors and developers have responded by sitting on their hands.
It is a different story in Canada, which emerged from the Covid pandemic with remarkably similar problems: surging immigration and a housing shortage.
Get ready Jimbo, there are lessons to be learned ... Treasurer Jim Chalmers during Question Time at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman
The pond rarely has a twinge at his absence, but the pond suddenly had a deep regret that Lord Downer hadn't become a regular Monday scribbler for the lizard Oz, and so was MIA this day.
Instead the pond was left with a caricaturing Caterist, truly beyond caricature as a whining Pom...
Multiculturalism ranks alongside five-pin bowling, poutine and Justin Bieber as one of Canada’s least helpful contributions to the world. It was adopted in Canada around the time Coca-Cola launched its “I’d like to teach the world to sing” campaign, with a similar spirit of earnest but incurious optimism. Over the course of half a century, the saccharine sentimentality of multiculturalism hardened into the doctrine of diversity among the fruitcake theorists on the progressive left and in Labor’s policy platform.
“We recognise Australia’s diversity is our greatest strength,” it reads. Labor will “seek to develop policies and make decisions informed by an envelope-based understanding of the needs of different Australians”.
Did the authors of this document even try to contemplate the downside of diversity and attempt to measure the trade-offs? Almost certainly not. As Thomas Sowell observed: “It is scary how easily so many people can be brainwashed by sheer repetition of a word.” The diversity imperative is distorting Labor’s thinking on immigration just as the White Australia policy did in the 1960s, and for essentially the same reason. Theoretical arguments about the ethnic composition of Australia have clouded practical decisions about the quantity and quality of our migration intake.
Linking the housing shortage to the unprecedented number of migrants admitted since Covid has become taboo among the Labor intelligentsia. In April, junior Treasury minister Andrew Leigh wrote this in the Australian Financial Review: blaming migrants for a housing shortage was “a populist manoeuvre”. On housing, he wrote that “migrants aren’t the culprits”, “In fact, they’re often part of the solution.”
Carney, a former central bank governor who studied alongside Angus Taylor at Oxford, takes a different view. His strategy, released in 2024, stipulates that immigration needed to be matched to Canada’s “capacity to build new homes” and that the objective was to “balance housing supply with housing demand”. Canada reduced planned permanent migration from the previous trajectory of 500,000 a year to 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027, while also introducing targets for temporary migration for the first time. The previous target of 673,650 new temporary residents in 2025 was roughly halved to 385,000 in 2026 and 370,000 in 2027, as were student arrivals, which were cut to 155,000 in 2026, down from 305,000.
The changes to the housing market have been startling. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported in July that slow population growth was weakening housing demand. Vacancy rates were rising in a number of cities and rent growth was slowing.
Yep, it's just a one time Pom black sheep bashing furriners for ruining the country ... Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has addressed the Australian Parliament with a focus on trade and security.
Could "melongate"get another run? Of course it could ...
Albanese, on the other hand, is frozen in the headlights, without a coherent housing policy and an immigration policy that remains in flux. Reports at the weekend suggest Albanese has been spooked by predictions that cutting immigration will push the country into recession. He’s also nervous about taking on the commercial vested interests of the university sector by capping overseas student numbers and removing the links between student visas and permanent migration.
Neither can we gloss over the PM’s vanity as a constraint on rational housing and migration policy. The suspicion that Albanese has succumbed to a particularly strong form of hubris – an occupational hazard political leaders should guard against – has been confirmed over the last fortnight with “Melon-gate”. The entire executive government, including its most fervent feminists, has been absorbed in attempting to impose a benign interpretation on the PM’s lewd hand gestures.
Albanese’s strongest objection to linking housing policy to immigration may be that Taylor called for it first and that Albanese’s authority will be further diminished by tacitly admitting it is a sensible idea.
Either way, housing and immigration are shaping up to be perhaps the biggest test of leadership and character in Albanese’s prime ministership. Correcting course requires the courage to confront vested interests both inside and outside his own party, and correct the mistakes made in Jim Chalmers’ May budget.
It will require taking a firm position based on economic principles and inner conviction, the kind of leadership we last saw in a Labor government under Hawke and Keating.
It’s a leadership style that has been conspicuously absent in this government. Yet the experience in Canada suggests it has not entirely been extinguished, even on the left.
Sheesh, not Hawke and Keating again.
First the Major and then the Caterist, and how that pair continue to live rent free in the hive mind as a reminder of a golden age that never was, and more to the point, as a golden age way of bashing the current Labor mob, though the pond distinctly remembers that at the time the pair were the ruination of the country, or so the reptiles said ...
... but then getting them coming and getting them going is the art and the point of the game.
And now as a trade war erupts between mad king Donald and the Canucks, the lizard Oz editorialist thought this might just be the solution, a trade war with biffo ....
So it's the right strategy, because the military campaign was such a stunning success?
As a follow up, the pond turned to the WSJ, mentioned in despatches by the lizard Oz editorialist ...
The pond has a deep admiration for anyone who can take the TACO bone spurs warrior seriously ...
And with that, the pond simply had to note this note about Golding...
Too painfully true to be funny? And just as the Nine rags abandon the one thing they have going for them? Their cartoonists ...