(Above: great political analysis Glenn. Me too, me too, me too. And hasn't he done another great job persuading the punters why they should fork over hard cash to help save Chairman Rupert's empire).
Amongst the many stupid commentaries about the weekend by-elections, none comes stupider than that offered up by the incredibly stupid Glenn Milne.
In some situations, density is a virtue - what's better than lead for making a sinker? - but in some cases, it isn't much use at all.
Well as Peter Brent at mumble noted:
Most are in the top third of the median income table. If these Australians are battling, it's for that second four-wheel-drive.
The Greens declared the by-elections to be a referendum on climate change. They were. And the Greens got thumped, despite optimistic predictions by the likes of Malcolm Mackerras that with the ascension of Abbott they would surely take at least Higgins.
And so did most of the remaining seats. And this in what is classic doctors' wives terrain, where affluent voters live, the ones who are supposed to care less about the cost of living than they do about the environment and refugees.
It's early days yet. But the message out of both Bradfield and Higgins is that the Liberal leader may yet be able to reinvent Howard's battlers as Abbott's army.
In a sign that searching through the entrails is a job now given to the dumbest in the land, Glenn Milne offers up A sign that Libs have got it right, and opens with a salvo of a sub-header:
Howard's battlers have come out for Tony Abbott in the weekend by-elections.
Well as Peter Brent at mumble noted:
Forget the base
And this idea of reviving the support of the party base first and then moving on to the middle (or something) that some journos are explaining. We heard the same with the Latham juggernaut. So you placate the poor dears and then, when they’re distracted, move on to the others?
The good thing about the base is that they continue voting for you, even when no-one else does. (And don’t give me any “Howard’s battlers” nonsense.)
And this idea of reviving the support of the party base first and then moving on to the middle (or something) that some journos are explaining. We heard the same with the Latham juggernaut. So you placate the poor dears and then, when they’re distracted, move on to the others?
The good thing about the base is that they continue voting for you, even when no-one else does. (And don’t give me any “Howard’s battlers” nonsense.)
In that post, Brent linked back to an older bit of scribbling about Howard's battlers:
Most are in the top third of the median income table. If these Australians are battling, it's for that second four-wheel-drive.
Well by sheer good fortune, I've lived and voted in the electorate of Higgins, and I'm buggered if I know what the fuck Glenn Milne is talking about, or thinking, if thinking is the right term to use, as he evokes Higgins as a playground for Howard's battlers. Replete with a shopping mall of humongous size.
Seizing on Catherine Deveny's rant about Chadstone mall as an excuse, he manages to dress himself up into a righteous pilgering rage about her Pilgeresque contempt for her fellow Australians. She's A nice person who probably votes Green.
He doesn't know Deveny and he doesn't know how she votes, or where she lives, but he feels he has the right to defame her in this way - for all he knows she might have voted for or will vote for the Australian Sex Party. Milne arrives at this triumphant non sequitur on the basis that Deveny, and possibly Clive Hamilton, have issues with Chadstone shopping centre.
In scribbling reminiscent of someone deeply in need of a valium, Milne manages to transform Higgins from one of the high Tory heartland seats into working class suburbia on the move:
It is classic Australian suburbia, the heart of what used to be known as the land of Howard's battlers. Without Labor offering a candidate in either seat, Hamilton in Higgins and the Greens' Susie Gemmell in Bradfield became Labor's electoral proxies.
The Greens declared the by-elections to be a referendum on climate change. They were. And the Greens got thumped, despite optimistic predictions by the likes of Malcolm Mackerras that with the ascension of Abbott they would surely take at least Higgins.
Oh god. Milne then lavishly trawls through the booths to convince himself that Howard's battlers are on the march through Higgins, and that these stout hearted dinkum dandy Aussies came up with a ringing endorsement of the Liberal party:
The point here is that, in the areas of Higgins and Bradfield that most reflect the outer suburban seats of the major cities where general elections are won and lost, voters gave the thumbs down to Rudd and the Greens on climate change. They forgave the Liberals for the destructive soap opera that the party had become until Abbott arrived and they endorsed both him and his stand against the ETS.
And so did most of the remaining seats. And this in what is classic doctors' wives terrain, where affluent voters live, the ones who are supposed to care less about the cost of living than they do about the environment and refugees.
Um, forget the battlers, suddenly we're now in doctors' wives terrain? Do they shop in the village I wonder, or at the mall?
Well if you want a sensible analysis, why not trot off to Antony Green's Election Blog, where you will learn:
- in the 2007 election, the Liberal party polled 59.1% of the first preference vote to 26.7% for Labor in Bradfield.
- Higgins has always been amongst the Liberal party's safest Victorian seats, and the Liberal party has never been forced to preferences at 25 elections over 60 years. It's provided two Liberal Prime Ministers, in Harold Holt and John Gorton, not to mention giving Peter Costello a sinecure 1990-2009.
The fact that Malcolm Mackerras is on crack as a caller of election results is neither here nor there.
Oops, sorry, I've interrupted Milne in the middle of an extremely rich and nurturing fantasy life reminiscent of young males in the grip of pornography:
But it's the people of Chadstone who do care about the cost of living because they have to. If they went for Abbott and his deferral of Rudd's ETS for hip pocket reasons imagine what the vote would be like in areas such as Sunshine in outer Melbourne, Bankstown in Sydney's west and Elizabeth in Adelaide. Imagine the vote in Gippsland where Brendan Nelson trumped Labor in a by-election of June 2008 with a swing of 6 per cent based on petrol prices and the threat to the coal-fired power stations of the La Trobe valley, before Rudd even had an ETS.
But it's the people of Chadstone who do care about the cost of living because they have to. If they went for Abbott and his deferral of Rudd's ETS for hip pocket reasons imagine what the vote would be like in areas such as Sunshine in outer Melbourne, Bankstown in Sydney's west and Elizabeth in Adelaide. Imagine the vote in Gippsland where Brendan Nelson trumped Labor in a by-election of June 2008 with a swing of 6 per cent based on petrol prices and the threat to the coal-fired power stations of the La Trobe valley, before Rudd even had an ETS.
It's early days yet. But the message out of both Bradfield and Higgins is that the Liberal leader may yet be able to reinvent Howard's battlers as Abbott's army.
Well yes, imagine if the whole country voted Liberal. Why a Liberal government would be elected. Imagine if there's no heaven, it's easy if you try, imagine no countries, no religion too, and people living at peace in Chadstone, imagine no possessions if you like, but first become a millionaire song writer.
Now you may call me a dreamer, but hey, I'm just following Glenn Milne into the dreaming.
Milne even manages, when discussing Bradfield, to get in a reference to Hornsby, which also, quelle horreur, has a shopping mall.
Antony Greene again: at the 2007 election, the Liberal party recorded 63.5% of the two party preferred vote in Bradfield, making it the fifth safest Liberal seat in Australia.
Now we know what Milne wants to happen, but why on earth is his fantasy life offered up as insightful electoral commentary? For this Chairman Rupert wants my money, when I can stroll across to Antony Green, and pick up cool, rational, measured insights by the bucketful, without the presence of Catherine Deveny as a bete noir? Or mindless childish rabbiting on about bloody shopping malls! As if a lot of federal seats don't have bloody shopping malls in them somewhere!
Well almost as an afterthought Milne tries to throw in a few other minor considerations, while excitedly confirming from the entrails that Abbott's army is now on the move:
There were local factors in play too, of course, particularly in Higgins. O'Dwyer stuck doggedly to bread and butter issues. Hamilton helped by living in a motel because he comes from the ACT. And Peter Costello, the incumbent until Saturday, who internal polling showed was worth 3 per cent to 4 four per cent, stuck to her like glue.
He wrote two mail-outs and his photo, along with O'Dwyer's, was on the Liberal's how to vote card.
Costello has encouraged his former staffer while in Treasury to run for Higgins and he has nurtured her obvious talents. And she now becomes part of the Liberal Party's future.
Shows just how much you can achieve with a decent political succession plan, doesn't it?
There were local factors in play too, of course, particularly in Higgins. O'Dwyer stuck doggedly to bread and butter issues. Hamilton helped by living in a motel because he comes from the ACT. And Peter Costello, the incumbent until Saturday, who internal polling showed was worth 3 per cent to 4 four per cent, stuck to her like glue.
He wrote two mail-outs and his photo, along with O'Dwyer's, was on the Liberal's how to vote card.
Costello has encouraged his former staffer while in Treasury to run for Higgins and he has nurtured her obvious talents. And she now becomes part of the Liberal Party's future.
Shows just how much you can achieve with a decent political succession plan, doesn't it?
Oh you mean the electorate didn't vote purely as a form of payback to Catherine Deveny for her evil views on the wondrous Chadstone shopping mall?
I've been tossing up for some time a competition for doofus or gherkin of the week, and couldn't decide on a name. Heck, let's just say that Glenn Milne is the doofus gherkin of the week, and because it's Monday, all you other doofus gherkins have to give up now.
The jig is up, the Nostradamus of Abbott's army has won hands down.
Never mind. At least I got to link to a couple of analysts worth a read, and if you go to mumble, you get links to another decent bunch of analysts well worth a read, if either (a) you're a political junkie, or (b) you like to do a Melbourne cup, and have an informed bet each time a by-election or full-on election comes around.
Whatever you do, don't read Glenn Milne. You might either end up trapped in Chadstone shopping mall for hours, or have to endure his metaphysical musings about Catherine Deveny. Perhaps so as a battler he can afford his second four wheel drive.
Oh I'm sorry, I don't even know if he drives a four wheel drive. That's almost as stupid as Glenn Milne's divinations about Catherine Deveny, or the implications of by-elections in a couple of the safest Liberal seats in the land.
If you're going to be a lemming, why not jump off a cliff without Glenn Milne's last thoughts ringing in your mind like the raven in an Edgar Allen Poe poem?
(Below: Glenn Milne startled by Catherine Deveny after a busy night for her haunting the lemmings at Chadstone shopping mall?)
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