Monday, January 25, 2021

In which the Major returns, and the pond indulges in a grand tradition ...

 

 
 
At last the Major is back, on a Monday most will be taking as a holyday, but what frabjous joy that he should have signaled his return with "A sense of proportion used to the hallmark of serious journalism".
 
Cue a grand pond tradition with the Major ...
 
 

 
 
Yes, there's serious journalism at work.

And so to the Major's effort today, which in the proud tradition of Killer Creighton, is a form of Covid denialism, or perhaps more accurately Covid relativism, full of stupidity, or idiocy if you will.

In recent times, climate science denialism seems to have lost its appeal for the likes of the Major, but the Major isn't just one of the world's great climate scientists, he's also up there as an epidemiologist ...
 


 

It was of course way back in 1996 that the Major deskilled the Courier Mail in a way only the Major could, and then provide some epic deskilling in the lizard Oz, but rather than argue with the Major, the pond would rather complete that Crikey story ...

 


 

What fun, but now it's time for more of the Major's expertise, and a reminder that if the Major had his way, and was running the show the way they ran it in the UK and the USA - oh Donald, what a bleach of a hydroxy good time - this country would be well and truly fucked ...



 

Medical research shows?

To understand the Major, it's essential to go back in time, as a way of discovering his Foxist tendencies. There are any number of stories ...

 


 

Back in the day, the heavies at News Corp realised that the virus was a bit out of the ordinary and cancelled the Chairman's birthday party, and instituted work practices for staff safety, while leading viewers down the garden path at Fox News.

Just for fun the pond selected a portion of that Salon story by Igor Derysh:

..."We expect to continue receiving reports of more positive tests given New York is now at the epicenter," the memo said, according to Deadline. "The vast majority of our workforce is now telecommuting so they have not had to weather the issues around each positive case."
But as Fox News executives worried about the impact of the virus, the network assured viewers, who could be at risk of severe illness from the virus because they are are disproportionately elderly, that the outbreak was no worse than the common flu.
Echoing President Donald Trump's attempts to downplay the threat of the virus, the network's hosts assured the audience the problem was not serious.
Some Fox News hosts seized on Trump's claim that the media coverage of the virus was a "hoax" to bring down his presidency. When the market began to collapse in late February, Fox pundits attempted to blame the rise of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in the Democratic primary race for scaring investors.
Fox hosts accused the media of pushing "false, fear-based narratives" are "driv[ing] coronavirus panic."
Fox News medical contributor Marc Siegel declared that the "worst-case scenario" for coronavirus was "it could be the flu" on March 6.
Host Jeanine Pirro argued one day later that the virus was less serious than the flu.
"All the talk about coronavirus being so much more deadly doesn't reflect reality," she claimed. "Without a vaccine, the flu would be far more deadly."
"The more I learn about [coronavirus], the less there is to worry about," Fox host Pete Hegseth said on March 8.
A day after Murdoch canceled his party, Fox Business host Trish Regan made the wild claim that concerns over the virus were "yet another attempt to impeach" Trump.
Regan's rant prompted the network to pivot, leading to a widely-shared montage of Fox hosts raising alarm over the same virus they had attempted to downplay just days earlier. Trump also appeared to stop trying to downplay the virus around the same time.
But just as Trump went on to pivot again to arguing that economic pain caused by the virus was worse than the virus itself, so did Fox News.
"You know that famous phrase, 'The cure is worse than the disease?'" Fox host Steve Hilton said Sunday before his remarks were echoed in Trump's tweets. "That is exactly the territory we are hurtling towards. You think it is just the coronavirus that kills people? This total economic shutdown will kill people . . . Flatten the curve but not the economy, and do it before it's too late."
Host Laura Ingraham also argued that within the next week "we need to be heading back to work, school, stores, restaurants and churches with new protocols in place."
"The risk if we don't is that we lose far more in terms of death, pain and suffering than this pandemic will bring," she said.
The network's coverage put its audience at risk, Smith argued in The Times.
"Fox failed its viewers and the broader public in ways both revealing and potentially lethal," he wrote. "In particular, Lachlan Murdoch failed to pry its most important voices away from their embrace of the president's early line: that the virus was not a big threat in the United States."
Ashish Jha, the director of the Harvard Global Public Health Institute, told Smith he believed some viewers would die because of the network's coverage.
"Yes, some commentators in the right-wing media," he said, "spread a very specific type of misinformation that I think has been very harmful."

That was way back in March 2020, and yet now here we are with the Major in the New Year of 2021...


 

 

Or perhaps just look at the UK and the United States, or Brazil, for results which can be produced by leaders as fucked in the head as the Major ...

And now by good luck, the reptiles put up the Oreo early enough for the reformed, recovering feminist to catch the pond's attention ...

 

 

 

What on earth is a triumphant tennis player doing at the top of an Oreo column?

Why on earth is there that apocalyptic header about loss of civility debasing the West? Is she going to go on a rant about John McEnroe, who was debasing things way back in the 1980s.

Is she going to rail against the bigotry and homophobia of Margaret Court, and the debasing of whatever little merit or meaning there might be to invasion day and the dubious gongs handed out to vile people?

Of course not. That's not what reformed, recovering feminsts do. They get a bee in the old bonnet, and go off ... 


 

The pond has no idea what the Oreo took before scribbling this piece, but couldn't resist heading off to a bizarrely laid out listicle which provided reminders that tennis is just tennis, and always has been, with a tennis that included the notorious Bobby Riggs, hustling Margaret Court, who was as silly then as she is now, and the likes of Gussie Moran and Jeff Tarango and Ilie Nastase ... and good old Jimmy Connors, how could the pond almost forget to mention Jimmy?

And then there was Bill Tilden ...

Bill Tilden dominated men's tennis in 1920s and much of the 1930s. He was as big a star as Babe Ruth or Jack Dempsey.
But his legacy is tainted. He was attracted to young boys in his later years, according to a New York Times article. He was virtually broke when he died in 1953, at age 60.
"As a public figure, perhaps a more apt comparison for Tilden is to the pop star Michael Jackson, whose musical legacy, while unassailable, was mitigated for some by his conduct," The New York Times wrote.
Tilden was sentenced to a year in jail in 1946 for contributing to the delinquency of a 14-year-old boy, according to the New York Times, and he was arrested again in 1949 for making sexual advances to a young male hitchhiker.
Tilden was controversial even during his playing days. As noted in excerpts from Frank Deford's book Big Bill Tilden: The Triumphs and Tragedy, the U.S. Lawn Tennis Association threatened to ban Tilden, who wrote for various publications and had an adversarial relationship with the USLTA while still in his prime.
He also was accused of being arrogant and inconsiderate, according to a CNN profile.

The listicle has the links for assorted references (needing highlighting) but what was the Oreo saying?

Has she turned herself into an Emily Post, or gasp, even worse a Victorian?

 

 


 

But what would a reformed, recovering feminist make of the text that accompanied that book, with plenty of other illustrations here ...

Suburbs and servants

Following social rules was even more important for middle-class women. Unlike men, they couldn’t draw status from their jobs. While husbands commuted to work every day, wives were left at home, often in one of the newly-built suburbs that were beginning to fringe the major cities. Semi-detached houses had names such as ‘Blenheim’ or ‘Windsor’ and were designed to ape the stately homes of the aristocracy. Not only was paid work for the middle-class woman frowned upon, she was also discouraged from doing housework, which was left to a growing army of specialised servants including housemaids, nursemaids, cooks and footmen. Even women at the bottom of the middle class, the wives of clerks and schoolteachers, expected to have a maid-of-all-work to do the dirtiest tasks like scrubbing the steps and peeling the potatoes.

Conspicuous consumption

The real function of a middle-class wife was to display her husband’s financial success by stocking her home with material possessions – what’s been called the ‘paraphernalia of gentility’. Carpets, pianos and paintings, the fancier the better, were all advertised in the new women’s magazines such as Sam Beeton’s Englishwoman’s Domestic Magazine and sent a message not only about their owners’ wealth but also their patriotism. Buying luxury goods boosted domestic trade and bound the growing British Empire together through the importation of precious materials and expensive fabrics from the other side of the world. Being a consumer had become a civic duty.

The lady of the house herself became a walking billboard for her husband’s material success. She might change her clothes several times a day, wearing different outfits for breakfast, making calls and dinner. Her body, too, conveyed an important message about her social class. Her smooth white hands and cumbersome crinoline skirt hinted that she had not been busy with housework.

Indeed, indeed, etiquette, civility, and bizarre Victorian hypocrisy, because really, has there been a more deluded and weird society than that of Victorian England?

How silly of the pond. Stupidity is timeless.

We now have the Oreo rabbiting on about the debasement of culture, as if there was some mysterious golden age ..



 

What an extraordinarily stupid woman. The pond doesn't say this of course to intrude on the good manners sustaining interpersonal civility vital to democratic societies ..

It's just a rather awkward tendency note the facts. Stupid is as stupid scribbles.

And so much as it would like to do, the pond is unable to revert the days of old, when the Earth was young and full of hope ... perhaps even revert to the Garden of Eden, and the way women ruined everything for men, as a recovered, reformed feminist would recognise.

As proof of the Oreo's astonishing capacity to embrace contradictions, the pond offers the Oreo's very supportive scribbling in favour of a notorious pussy grabber. 

This was the delusional Oreo rabbiting on about the Donald in the lizard Oz back on 5th October 2020, rabble rousing in the Donald way... the pond can't do all of it, but here's a taster ...



 

So what is it? Civility, gentility and etiquette, or a good burst of pussy groping while ranting about the rabbit hole of PC bigotry? Is there a Margaret Court in the house? The Oreo would be delighted to have a cup of tea and a plate of scones with her ...

Rather than brood about it anymore, the pond will close with an evocative Rowe, with more Rowe evocations here ...


 


 


26 comments:

  1. Oreo the Reformed: "In a recent case, the organiser of a rally against racism was charged with attempted murder after driving her car into a group of Trump supporters and running over a woman's head."

    Hmmm. "The incident is one of more than 100 where motorists have plowed into demonstrations since late May, when protests against police brutality swept the nation following the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis police custody, according to Ari Weil, deputy director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats at the University of Chicago.

    The vast majority of cases tallied by Weil involved motorists who ran into those demonstrating for causes aligned with the Black Lives Matter movement, Weil said. He knows of only one other instance where that wasn’t the case, in which a man drove into a crowd of people rallying in support of police officers in Eaton, Colo., in July.
    "
    https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-09-29/yorba-linda-protest-organizer-charged-attempted-murder

    Sounds a bit like tit-for-tat doesn't it; back in 2017 there was James Fields Jr:
    "The man who drove his car into a crowd of anti-racist protesters in Charlottesville, Va., killing one person and injuring 35 has been sentenced to spending the rest of his life in prison.
    A federal judge issued the sentence of life without the possibility of parole on Friday for self-proclaimed neo-Nazi James Fields Jr., 22, of the Toledo, Ohio, area.
    "
    And of course, as usual, wingnuts demand 100 tits for every tat, and they usually get them too, as in this case. [Richard Axelrod: 'The Evolution of Cooperation', 1984]

    But no, I guess it was just bipartisan unity working out in public.

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  2. This was a very interesting read:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-25/covid-19-spread-through-australia-over-year/13078574?nw=0

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  3. There was a contribution, of sorts, from Creighton for this day. I say ‘of sorts’ because it is taken from one Dr Martin Lally, of New Zealand. My Source tells me it was labelled ‘Exclusive’ to our Killer. Perhaps.

    It seems that our Killer stumbled across a manuscript by Dr Lally - or it may well be that Dr Lally, who seems to be one of the very small complement of staff of ‘Capital Financial Consultants’ over there in NZ, was seeking some publicity.

    ‘Googling’ ‘Martin Lally’ turns up a manuscript, titled ‘’The Costs and Benefits of a Covid-19 Lockdown’, dated 11August 2020. Yep - exclusive. There is no indication of what the manuscript was prepared for - learned journal, workshop, blog, or simply to put up on the internet.

    Dr Lally needs three numbers - one is an estimate of possible deaths in NZ if their government had not taken action. The second is to convert the first number to QALYs. I will spare GB the distress of Dr Lally’s reasoning on that - but it includes statements like ‘Because of their existing medical conditions, such people (those who die from Covid) would also have subnormal life quality. Applying a 50% discount for this . . . . ) The intent is to get the number of QALYs ‘saved’ as low as possible.

    It is the third number that got the attention of My Source - the cost of those, deeply discounted, QALYs.

    I apologise in advance for loading up a contribution with pointless numbers. They are there only for readers who might be able to enlighten My Source and myself. And I may have to break this up to comply with size restrictions on the site.

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  4. Dr Lally takes two lots of estimates, prepared by NZ Treasury, for likely NZ GDP from 2020 to 2024. The regular projection, from December 2019, showed GDP likely to increase by around 2.5% for each of those next 5 years. He then compared revised projections released in May 2020, as Treasury contemplated the effects on the economy of that Covid. Those numbers went from -4.6% to + 3.6%

    All well and good and standard Treasury, but now comes the prestidigitation. Watch carefully.

    Dr Lally aggregated the two lines - to get a number of 539.1 for the pre-Covid scenario, and 510.8 for the amendment of May 2020. He says the difference between these two peculiar numbers is 28.3 ‘which represents 28% of New Zealand 2019 GDP’.

    He says the 2019 GDP was $311billion, 28% is $87billion, which, he says, is the cost of the 2500 QALYs he claims were ‘saved’. At least, I think that is what he claims. There are so many caveats, and suppositions throughout that it is not easy to navigate, but they are trivial compared with that exercise with Treasury’s two projections of GDP growth. Yep, add the index value for each year, find the difference, then - say that that equates to 28% of one year’s GDP.

    No - the Source and I are quite mystified. More to the point, our Killer, so eager for something to fill this week’s column, seems not to have questioned any part of Dr Lally’s, er - methodology - but, then - the function of Economics Editor required little more than finding something in print, somewhere, that appeared to agree with the collective (but independent) reptile pool of opinion, and put it up in triumph, with the ‘Exclusive’ tag, in red.

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    Replies
    1. We are most of the way through a global natural experiment (hope I am using the term correctly) in Covid-19 pandemic management. We are even into the recovery phase in a number of countries but we seem to have a merry band of wingnuts who want to argue based on hunches, guesses and first principles reasoning.

      The thing that seems to piss them off is not that they are wrong but they have been ignored. They would be quite happy to watch the bodies pile up as long as they were consulted.

      It's a bit disturbing that anyone would risk lives based on the sort of wobbly assumptions found in this

      https://croakingcassandra.files.wordpress.com/2020/08/martin-lally-cost-benefit-assessment-of-covid-lockdown-august-2020.pdf

      Many of the things Dr Lally is talking about have come a long way since August and the events don't tend to support his conclusions.

      As for Killer, his avoidance of reality reminds me of this

      "Rosencrantz: Why don't you go and have a look?
      Guildenstrern: Pragmatism?! - is that all you have to offer?”

      Delete
    2. Befuddled - as you have seen in that manuscript, the Lally objective was to shrink the lives (or the QALYs) to the lowest number, and amplify the costs to whatever you can get away with with the unthinking reader. What struck me about adding a series of annual percentage increments was that if no alarm went off in Lally's head as he was committing that innumeracy - there is little wonder he, and our Killer, have no intuitive understanding of how the basic equations in epidemiology show that rates of infection, or death, can accelerate because of minor changes in the characteristics of the infective agent.

      Delete
    3. Have I ever mentioned before, Chad, that most humans really aren't very bright ?

      And to illustrate that point, how did Lally ever get to be a Uni professor ? It really doesn't bear thinking about, does it.

      Delete
    4. Hmm. Rosencrantz and Guildenstern is one of those 'Great Works' I may yet have to countenance - after all, I did enjoy 'Waiting for Godot'.

      And being a once and future skeptic, Bef, I know that pragmatism is everything I have to offer.

      Delete
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  6. The Major: "average age of Covid deaths at 79 for men". I guess Actuarial Studies have not come to the Major's attention: if you get to 79, you can expect to live about eight years more - https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html.

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    Replies
    1. C'mon Joe, you wouldn't really expect the Maj. Mitch to have any grasp of the difference between lifespan and life expectancy, yes ?

      Delete
  7. Maybe I'm just more senile that I think I am, Chad, but I just don't get any of that at all. Then maybe old fogey scatterbrained limited QALYs like me aren't supposed to get it. Though I don't reckon Joshy Fry will get it either, but that's never mattered to him before.

    Anyway, regarding this QALY nonsense they seem to base it on not being able to do what you could do back when you were 30 or younger. And if that's the case, then every single person who is older that 30 is on reduced QALY - including the entire reptile herpetarium. So that factorng should be applied to every single thing that our governments do: what is the QALY adjusted cost of an age pension payed since age 65 ? What is the QALY factor for NDIS payments ? And especially, what is the QALY cost of the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme ?

    Anyway, it kinda reminded me, in a mucked up way, of something Bef said quite a while ago: "replacing a complex concept by a simple expression" but in reverse fashion. Instead of a simple idea: saving and/or extending lives, we have the complex Lally expression for 'cost per QALY'.

    But then you see, in my decidely simple minded way, I don't reckon I have to be able to do now what I could do at age 30 (which wasn't all that exciting anyway), what matters is whether I can do what I want to do now, and mostly I can. So I'd rate my QALY as at least 90% of what it was when I was 30. How about you ?

    I wonder what Killler C would rate his QALY as ?

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    Replies
    1. Well, yes GB - I did have you in mind when I snuck in that quote from Lally. At this stage of my life, I am spared having to sell my labour to be able to eat regularly, and otherwise live in comfort. The investments have actually allowed us a small estate in the country, from which we can pity those who have to try to exist in the city. I have time to read all manner of great books as intensively as I wish. I accept that QALY is supposed to deal only with matters of health (and a useful thing it is, when used within its limitations - like GDP) but if something like 'contentment' (or other consideration of mental state) might be factored into assessment of 'health' - I think each year I have now is of much the same value as I might have given a year when I was 30.

      Delete
    2. Well I'm not quite that self sufficient, Chad so I do rather need a pension. Though if I scrimped a bit, I could probably survive for quite a few QALY years yet. But in my case, preferrably in the City - it's closer to a full range of medical services - not that I really need much of those yet, but ...

      Reckon I've done my lot of 'Great Book Reading' - not being in any way connected to Ramsay - I now prefer the constant change in content and connection that comes from a daily change of reading menu.

      So, for instance, here are some recent reading items:
      https://www.sourcesecurity.com/axis-communications-axis-q6044-e-ip-dome-camera-technical-details.html

      https://newatlas.com/materials/liquid-glass-new-state-matter/

      https://www.quantamagazine.org/new-quantum-algorithms-finally-crack-nonlinear-equations-20210105/

      https://www.sciencealert.com/our-galaxy-has-a-shocking-array-of-really-strange-stars

      https://www.sciencealert.com/in-1110-trom he-moon-vanished-from-the-sky-we-may-finally-know-why

      Sorry, but "now is the winter of our discontent" just no longer competes. I still like this one, though:
      Come, fill the cup, and in the fire of spring
      Your winter garment of repentance fling.
      The bird of time has but a little way
      To flutter - and the bird is on the wing.


      Courtesy of Omar the Tentmaker, the only poet-mathematician-astronomer the human race has ever produced.

      Don't mind this one, either:
      I returned and saw under the sun that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, nor bread to the wise, nor riches to men of understanding, nor favor to men of skill; but time and chance happen to them all.

      Delete
    3. Ooops, that's:

      https://www.sciencealert.com/in-1110-the-moon-vanished-from-the-sky-we-may-finally-know-why

      Delete
    4. As ever, thanks GB. I have mentioned the pleasure the further references that contributors place on this site gives me. This stands in contrast with the links that Kates puts up on 'Catallaxy'. That is a public service in a way - if you want the condensation of sheer right ratbaggery from the US of A - sites that have 'patriot', or 'thinker', or 'action' in their title - then Kates saves you having to use a search engine. Of course, you have to condition your mind to not keep questioning 'why would anyone spend more than seconds of a day reading this stuff?'

      Delete
    5. I can't come at Catallaxy for love or money or even just good old-fashioned total skepticism. Glad you can do it for us.

      Delete
  8. Now Maj. Mitch confidently asserts that "Norman Swan ... confidently predicted early in the pandemic that 150,000 Australians would die of COVID-19."

    Hmm. And well they might, eventually (including deaths from COVID-20, COVID-21, Covid-22 ...). Though near enough, I guess. But my problem is, I can't find (or at least DuckDuckGo can't find) any reference to him having said that. Now he did appear on a Q&A whereupon Paul Kelly basically said that if we sit on our bums - in the approved Killer-C-Maj-Mitch fashion - that many may die - implicitly in the current pandemic, not over the next 10 or 20 years.

    As near as I can tell, Swan did not 'correct' Kelly, so maybe the reptiles (Maj. Mitch not being the only one) reckon Swan agreed, and therefore he can be tarred with the same brush.

    Can anybody help with a reference where Swan personally claimed 150,000 deaths ?

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  10. Poor Jen’s got a wasp in her wimple
    So she popped out a thought from her pimple...
    That tennis court rage
    Is the menace of the age
    Oh if only this world were so simple!

    ReplyDelete
  11. I am blaming the Oreo for her totally whacko tennis brat wrath vs patience of the ancients theme. This one draws inspiration from schoolyard rhymes regarding knights and socks as well as certain amenities block related processes that caused much mirth amongst us fourth grade boys.


    In days of old when the Ancients were bold
    And tennis had not been invented
    For venting their spleens
    They sat on latrines
    And bombed battleships till contented



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Now can we maybe get you to take up mathematics and astronomy Kez ? If you haven't already, that is.

      Delete
    2. I don't know about taking those subjects up GB - I am a dabbler in both. That is I read a lot about astronomy but I don't have a telescope and I am interested in certain areas of maths such as chaos theory but stand in awe of pure mathematics. My latest mathematical/physics project is to gain a complete understanding of the light cone!

      Delete
    3. Near enough, mate (nobody has a telescope nowadays, they're all linked in to the massive setups all over the world - especially Australia - and in space. One of these days, just for the amusement thereof, look up 'astronomer's personal equation' and its history).

      Think we might just name you as 21st century's Omar Khayyam.

      Delete
  12. One more for the road!

    It’s making the Oreo furious
    That tennis brat’s lives are luxurious
    And that civilisation
    Faces extermination
    Thanks to McEnroe, Tomic and Kyrgios

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    Replies
    1. 3 aces for the game to love there Kez - bravo!

      Delete

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