Mein Gott, the late arvo edition ...

 

Say what you will, and no doubt you're tempted, but the mighty Mein Gott is keeping up an astonishing pace.

While derelict wretches like the wastrel bromancer fall by the wayside, Mein Gott keeps his Herculean nose to the grindstone, grinding out column inches on a daily basis.

Whenever the pond dares look, there's yet another Mein Gott outing, solving the world's problems.

This day he bobbed up to give Xi and China a dinkum spanking in Donald Trump: Made in China, There is a hidden drama in China. In a few years, we may look back and see it was the main cause of the amazing events taking place in the US.

It's true it was only a modest three minute read, but in a way, given his extraordinary revelations, that makes it all the more astonishing.

It seems that there might be no need to wage a war with China by Xmas - their bloody economy is like Humpty Dumpty teetering on the wall, as the opening illustration evoked, Xi Jinping finds himself in a more precarious position than the Chinese state is willing to admit. Picture: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

A precarious position! He'll be lucky to make it to Ēostre. No hot, very cross buns for him ...

Some might think this is a bit like Times Radio announcing the downfall of Vlad the Sociopathic Impaler and Russia each day like clockwork, but the pond will have none of it. 

Mein Gott was in his usual feisty mood, and the end was nigh ...

In a few years when we look back on 2025 we may conclude that the hidden drama in China was the main cause of the amazing events now taking place in the US.

Most commentaries about China are a maze of statistics. I want to take readers behind those figures into what is really happening in China and why America’s Trumpism is arguably a product of events in China.

Astonishing. Now there seemed to be a few caveats of the "may look back" and "arguably" kind, but it's a lay down misère hand that events in China produced Trumpism. There's nothing these fiendish orientals can't manage ... just ask Fu Manchu and Dr. No ... (unless it's the latter's German side that's to blame).

The great danger for the world is we have not isolated the Chinese consumers as a key cause of the tariff wars just as in Australia we are not isolating our bad energy policies as the main cause of higher costs.

We need to start by looking at China prior to the presidency of Xi Jinping, which started 12 years ago. His predecessors, President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, are now forgotten but in their two terms of office there was further emergence of a consumption-driven Chinese middle class.

Just to be helpful, the reptiles provided a reminder snap, Former Chinese president Hu Jintao in Canberra in 2003.

Then Mein Gott plunged into a deep read of the situation:

The Hu-Wen Chinese governments expected China to emerge as one of the great consumer nations of the world.

But, under Xi Jinping it did not happen. China failed in its efforts to replace its exports with domestic consumption, so its industrial base now relies on exports to the US and the rest of the world.

Under the original plan, by now, exports should have been greatly reduced in importance by local consumption.

Instead, the Chinese population just saves and saves. The adverse consequences within China are dire, because most Chinese industrial enterprises are now desperate for every export sale they can achieve.

It is not made easier by the emergence of Vietnam and others as rival sources of low cost goods.

The US believes it must defend itself against Chinese low pricing and the result is the election of Donald Trump as President. At least in part the new tariff world is a symptom of China’s problems rather than America’s.

So why didn’t the massive China industrial base create a great consumer nation as had been envisaged by Hu and Wen?

I don’t know the full story but there are clear signals which explain why the Chinese save rather than spend.

He doesn't know the full story? He hasn't yet grasped the overall picture?

That should help, but Mein Gott seemed to have a special understanding ...

China’s industrial base did not convert into a well-paid Chinese workforce. Many segments of the population found other income sources, but they do not put said income on display with high consumer spending. Meanwhile, the West enjoyed inflation relief because Chinese business was left to drop pricing to survive, continuing low payment of employees. It is a vicious cycle.

For those not entirely convinced, the reptiles helped out with a caption for the final snap, explaining that what Mein Gott really meant was "a factor in the market worries", which means readers must factor this into their interpretation of Mein Gott's wisdom, Chinese low pricing was a factor in the market worries which saw Donald Trump re-elected as US President. Picture: Roberto Schmidt/AFP

Thank the long absent lord, the pond had thought it was all about DEI and woke culture wars and slashing and burning and deportations and the need to give Uncle Leon a Project 2025 powered chain saw... but when the pond looked at the latest government propaganda from China, the pond saw that Mein Gott was right.

Why the country was indigent, poverty-stricken, on its knees ...

It's almost as if the Chinese government had more on its collective mind than keeping the populace in Beijing duck ...

The thought passed quickly. All the pond needs do is sit back, relax, and wait for Mein Gott's prophecies to come to pass ...

While there was a property boom the Chinese saw their property paper gains as a saving security. When the property market collapsed many were left with overhanging debt and it had a severe impact on consumer spending.

It was a duplication of what happened in Japan, which depressed the Japanese economy for two decades. Australia’s iron ore exports to Japan were hit by the Japanese slump, but then rescued by the resurgence in China. Chinese infrastructure spending has helped us but in the decade ahead we need Chinese consumers to spend, especially as we face major iron ore competition from Africa

Sadly, there also appears to be a hidden force holding back many Chinese consumers. Anecdotal evidence (always denied by the administration) suggests China has a hidden cancer in some parts of the country which did not exist in Japan. If it is widespread, it is very serious.

In the absence of proper salaries, bureaucrats rely on bribery payments. Everyone has to pay.

If any citizen complains there is an institutionalised system to eradicate them because the whole public service is at risk. Where it exists, the cancer creates a distrust in the administration which is compounded by the fact most aspects of a person’s affairs are known by the government.

The bottom line? Chinese factories can’t afford to pay the Trump tariffs, so Xi may be fighting for his life

Is a war with Taiwan the political diversion he needs? Is another Tiananmen Square protest a prospect? Maybe Trump and Xi will do a deal which achieves Trump objectives without tariffs.

If Australia does not honour its ANZUS obligations, then we have no defence should the Chinese look this way as the Japanese did in 1940.

Oh yes ...

From imminent collapse in the near future to imminent invasion, possibly before the weekend, and if not that, some kind of civil war and protests in the street ... 

Remember, safety demands obedience to reptile thought bubbles ...

Maybe Xi could order the sale of US bonds and have the proceeds distributed to consumers?

But, the base dilemma is the Trump tariffs are seen in China as the problem, when it’s the Chinese consumer refusing to spend which is the real problem.

Questions, questions, problems, problems, but how wise of Mein Gott to sound the alarums and remind us of the need to seek protection from King Donald ...

Um, perhaps the pond phrased that incorrectly. 

It's not so much protection from King Donald as bending the knee and kissing his ring so he might bestow protection on his humble, ever so grateful peasants ...

Just look north for guidance. Things in the United States are proceeding exceedingly well, with the treatment of nasty, nasty Canada - elbows up Canucks! - showing exactly how King Donald likes to treat his onetime closest allies.

This report from Tom Tomorrow came in a few days ago on the daily wonders that no doubt keep Mein Gott sleeping comfortably at night ...