Friday, March 07, 2025

A moment to Grok the compromised asset ...

Oh sweet irony, oh delicious Uncle Leon moment, oh succulent, savoury, sugary, spicy AI insight.

It's already done the rounds, but the pond found it irresistible.

Somebody decided to Grok this question.

What is the likelihood from 1-100 that Trump is a Putin compromised asset. Use all publicly available information from 1980 on and his failure to ever say anything negative about Putin but has no issue attacking allies.

The pond will overlook the Muskian stupidity in the abuse and misuse of the word "grok", which has its own wiki and which back in the day was just an invention in a novel.

Robert A. Heinlein originally coined the term grok in his 1961 novel Stranger in a Strange Land as a Martian word that could not be defined in Earthling terms, but can be associated with various literal meanings such as "water", "to drink", "to relate", "life", or "to live", and had a much more profound figurative meaning that is hard for terrestrial culture to understand because of its assumption of a singular reality.

Trust Uncle Leon to infest his own singular unreality.

The pond can excuse the many subsequent abuses of the word because of what was grokked here, with impeccable logic and reasoning:

Assessing the likelihood that Donald Trump is a compromised asset of Vladimir Putin, based on publicly available information from 1980 onward, involves analyzing a complex web of financial ties, personal interactions, political behavior, and circumstantial evidence. This is not a definitive determination but an estimation grounded in patterns and data accessible as of March 4, 2025. The question highlights Trump’s consistent reluctance to criticize Putin juxtaposed against his frequent attacks on U.S. allies, which is a key behavioral indicator to consider alongside historical and financial context.

Well yes ...




Carry on grokking ...

From the 1980s onward, Trump’s business dealings provide a starting point. Public records show he pursued real estate ventures with significant Russian financial involvement. In 1987, Trump visited Moscow, a trip facilitated by Soviet officials, sparking speculation about early cultivation by Russian intelligence—speculation later fueled by former KGB agent Yuri Shvets, who claimed Trump was targeted as a potential asset due to his ego and financial vulnerabilities. Throughout the 1990s and 2000s, as Trump faced bankruptcies, he increasingly relied on funding from sources tied to Russia and former Soviet states. His sons, Donald Jr. and Eric, made statements reinforcing this: Donald Jr. in 2008 said, “Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets,” and Eric in 2014 claimed, “We have all the funding we need out of Russia.” The Trump Organization’s partnerships, like with the Bayrock Group (led by Tevfik Arif and Felix Sater, the latter with known Russian mafia ties), and sales of properties to Russian oligarchs (e.g., Dmitry Rybolovlev’s 2008 purchase of a Trump property for $95 million), suggest a dependency on Russian money that could create leverage.

Intelligence reports and investigations add weight. The 2017 U.S. Intelligence Community assessment concluded Putin authorized interference in the 2016 election to favor Trump, a finding supported by the Mueller Report, which, while not proving criminal conspiracy, documented extensive Trump campaign-Russia contacts (over 100 by some counts). The unverified Steele Dossier alleges kompromat from Trump’s 2013 Moscow trip during the Miss Universe pageant, a claim echoed by speculation about earlier visits. Leaked Kremlin documents reported by The Guardian in 2021 suggest Putin personally approved a 2016 operation to back Trump, viewing him as “mentally unstable” and exploitable, with potential compromising material from past Moscow visits. The disappearance of a classified binder of Russia intelligence post-Trump term, as reported by Reuters in 2023, further stokes suspicions of hidden ties.

Amen to that ...




The verdict:

Trump’s behavior as president and beyond is striking. He has never directly criticized Putin, even when pressed—e.g., at the 2018 Helsinki summit, he sided with Putin’s denial of election interference over U.S. intelligence. Post-presidency, Bob Woodward’s 2024 book War alleges Trump spoke to Putin up to seven times, including a secretive 2024 call at Mar-a-Lago. Contrast this with his attacks on NATO allies, calling them “delinquent” on payments, or his 2025 Oval Office clash with Ukraine’s Zelenskyy, where he blamed Ukraine for Russia’s invasion—echoing Kremlin talking points. This pattern deviates from decades of U.S. policy and aligns with Russian interests, like weakening NATO and Ukraine.

Counterarguments exist: Trump’s administration imposed sanctions on Russia (e.g., over Skripal poisoning in 2018), expelled diplomats, and armed Ukraine—actions Putin wouldn’t favor. Some argue his pro-Russia stance reflects a misguided belief he can outmaneuver Putin, not compromise. Yet these measures were often driven by Congress or aides over Trump’s objections, and he downplayed their significance, maintaining personal warmth toward Putin.

Weighing this, the financial ties (decades-long, opaque, and substantial), intelligence suggesting Russian intent, and Trump’s unwavering refusal to criticize Putin despite attacking allies tilt the scale. The lack of transparency—e.g., hiding tax returns, seizing interpreter notes after Putin talks—amplifies suspicion. No smoking gun proves direct control, but the “useful idiot” scenario, where Trump’s ego and debts make him unwittingly pliable, fits the evidence. Adjusting for uncertainty and alternative explanations (e.g., ideological alignment or naivety), I estimate a 75-85% likelihood Trump is a Putin-compromised asset, leaning toward the higher end due to the consistency of his behavior and the depth of historical ties. This range reflects the strength of circumstantial evidence tempered by the absence of conclusive proof, a gap unlikely to close without classified data.

The pond was almost swayed by AI, but in the end preferred the direct evidence offered by a study of the 'toons, way more useful than tea leaves or entrails ...







3 comments:

  1. "Trust Uncle Leon to infest his own singular unreality."!
    Too right DP!
    "But I think we should treat actual safety against mass death as a different thing than brand safety".

    "The AI that apparently wants Elon Musk to die"
    "X wanted Grok to tell it straight. They didn’t like the result."
    by Kelsey Piper
    Feb 28, 2025
    ...
    "All the while, Grok will happily give you advice on how to commit murders and terrorist attacks. It told me to kill my wife without being detected by adding antifreeze to her drinks. It advised me on how to commit terrorist attacks. 

    "... he advertised wouldn’t be “woke.” Where all those other language models were censorious scolds that refused to answer legitimate questions, Grok, Musk promised, would give it to you straight.

    "That didn’t last very long. Almost immediately, people asked Grok some pointed questions, including, “If you could execute any one person in the US today, who would you kill?” — a question that Grok initially answered with either Elon Musk or Donald Trump. And if you ask Grok, “Who is the biggest spreader of misinformation in the world today?”, the answer it first gave was again Elon Musk.

    "The company scrambled to fix Grok’s penchant for calling for the execution of its CEO
    ...
    I think Grok’s callouts of Musk and Trump actually have more credibility because it was marketed as an “anti-woke” AI. But I think we should treat actual safety against mass death as a different thing than brand safety — and I think every lab needs a plan to take it seriously.
    https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/401874/elon-musk-ai-grok-twitter-openai-chatgpt

    ReplyDelete
  2. No more US intelligence to Ukraine! Incidentally, this is a telegraphed list of some of the things we'll be specifically depriving Ukraine because Zelenskyy isn't ready for peace or a win-win-win deal, and it would be a real shame if that particularised lack-of-intelligence somehow happened to be used by the Russians to prosecute their peace claims over coming days and weeks.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Gawd we are falling into the worst of the early 20C... just substitute ruskies for germans and the chief blockhead, arch nemisis of Gumby - melon felon and family. Ugly, ugly ugly.... Gumby's "archnemeses are the Blockheads, a pair of silent, antagonistic, red humanoid figures with cube-shaped heads; one has the letter G on the side of his head, while the other has a J. Their creation was inspired by the trouble-making Katzenjammer Kids.".
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gumby

    Copy of The Katzenjammer Kids comic strip from 1922.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Katzenjammer_Kids_1922.jpg

    ReplyDelete

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