Sunday, August 02, 2020

In which prattling Polonius and Dame Slap take care of the pond's Saturday matinee cliff hanger ...


For those who came in late to the story, yesterday the pond presented the duelling banjos of the dog botherer and bromancer celebrating the way all might not yet be lost for the Donald, natural heir and successor to Maggie and Ronnie Raygun, and tried to comfort dear sweet Gracie, who thought conservatism might be dead, sounding like a modern day Nietzsche announcing the demise of God …a shocking, disturbing conceit which sent the pond into a total tizz ...

The pond promised a way forward, a way to shoehorn new realities into existing ideology … by the magic of nostalgia, a drifting into the past, a forgetting of all that besets unhappy reptiles at the moment.

And as might be expected, when in urgent need of a way out of the Saturday matinee cliff hanger, prattling Polonius led the way …


Indeed, the foolish left are incapable of judging economic success. Why, wealth inequality around the world has risen at a staggering rate, and how successful is that!

There are many graphs out there celebrating this wondrous success … but this will do because the pond is even lazier than Polonius ...


Surely something worth celebrating, but there's always a fly in the ointment, and as usual the Polonial ointment was spoiled by that dreadful treacherous, traitorous, lickspittle, fellow-travelling, quisling Speersie, who crossed over from Murdochian nirvana to the satanic ABC to become the anti-Christ … (well it is the home of very unique Satanists, the pond and Polonius knows it for a fact) ...


Now at this point, a few might want to consider a reliable source before continuing with a discussion of pissing down as an economic solution. Have you had a session with your astrologer today?


But Polonius wasn't too worried about consulting the stars. Doubt the stars are fire, doubt that the sun doth move, doubt truth to be a liar, but never doubt Polonius's reverence for past conservative glories...


Indeed, indeed. There's rarely a day goes by that the pond and someone in the middle east doesn't pause to celebrate the achievements of Tony Blair …

  

 

But enough of joyous celebrations of past achievements, and their ongoing effects, it's time for the final Polonial gobbet, and how mortifying, a couple of corrections ...


Just for the record, the pond regrets never bothering to fact check Polonius, and so last week publishing this indication that Polonius might be losing it …


And so to Dame Slap ploughing the same field of nostalgia, because where one reptile goes, all must follow, because how to be a conservative without being a sheep baa-ing and or a horse's arse neighing about the wonders of Maggie and Ronnie Raygun ...


Now as will be seen in that presentation, this is Dame Slap in undiluted hagiographic form, with many iconic statues of the saints on hand to be worshipped.

But there is an important point to note. Even though Dame Slap once donned the MAGA cap and slipped out into the nighttime streets of New York to celebrate the arrival of the Donald, these days such miscues are best ignored, and the wisest solution is to drift off into the rosy-hued golden-ray bathed memories, a nostalgia that only Barbra Steisand and Dame Slap might be capable of evoking ...


Indeed, indeed, and the pond is at one with Josh, having checked with the astrologer that this is an appropriate stance …


Naturally Dame Slap had also checked her stars, and knew it was a blessing that Ronnie Raygun had been guided by the celestial structures, guided around the dangerous shoals, reefs and rocks of lefties ...


Ah yes, forget the state of disrepair that Maggie left the country in, such that even her fellow Tories couldn't wait to get rid of her, forget the final demented years of Ronnie Raygun, look to the stars …


And so on to the next hagiographic snap of Maggie ...


Hang on, hang on, does nostalgia mean taking cheap shots at the masterly policies inaugurated by Josh's mob?



More at the Graudian here if you've got a dowdy bathroom or new rooms to add, go for it, but the pond must continue on with the hagiographic pics ...


Freedom? But we've got the Donald, Xi and Vlad the impaler now, and thanks to the Donald, and in her own humble way, Dame Slap herself, the Ruskis and Xi are on the march, so who needs freedom? And as for the rest …


Sorry, back to hagiographic snaps of visionaries guided by the stars ...


Hang on, hang on, is Dame Slap now so wreathed in nostalgia that she just dismissed SloMo as a mediocre politician? 

What does she make of her Donald now? 

Oh that's right, please no mention of the Donald, no reason for present ugly realities to intrude into the glorious past.

The business of dealing with the present is best done by wandering back into dreams of past glories, and if it's good enough for Polonius, it's good enough for Dame Slap ...with appropriate caveats of course ...


Dear sweet long absent lord, do they have 'chaps' in Statesville, North Carolina? Is he a splendid chap, or should Bertie be talking about a splendid old cork?

You have to hand it to Dame Slap, next she'll be explaining to Virginia that there is a Santa Clause … or at least a couple of grinches working tirelessly to shift wealth from the poor to the ever more richer ...


Not a single mention of the Donald. Mission accomplished! Dame Slap has completely forgotten the present, and has retreated into a golden age past … and long may she stay there.

For that matter, Dame Slap also managed to avoid any unfortunate trivia such as a world pandemic, just a slightly sluggish economy, which can be fixed in a trice by removing regulations and screwing workers …

Ah nostalgia, is there nothing it can't do?

And speaking of nostalgia, it's been a long time since the pond ran with Bjorn and his patented brand of climate science denialism, but why not, where's the harm?


That rhetorical "swamped by rising climate of alarm" will mean nothing to the pond if the Lomborgian wonder can't work a reference to the wicked 'global 'leet' into his opening sentence. 

How foolish of the pond to worry, how silly of the pond to doubt.


Yes, indeed, global warming is a real challenge, but we really don't need to tackle the problem in any meaningful way. In the Lomborgian world, everything works out for the best in the best of possible worlds, and a little adaptation will fix what ails ya …

Unfortunately in search of the unstated Lomborgian references (never bother with links), the pond went off to the 2019 paper by Bamber et al which perhaps the Lomborgian wonder was referring to, and sure enough there was a mention of 187 million … but what do you know, not a mention of 305,000.

So perhaps it was another paper, an ancient one from 2011 here, which explained how the world could simply go Dutch, and keep things down to a humble 41,000 or so …

If we assume protection with dikes and nourishment, the number of displaced people falls dramatically to comparatively minor levels of 41 000–305 000 people displaced over the twenty-first century. Hence, in contrast to the no-protection scenario, the problem of environmental refugees almost disappears.
The costs of protection are zero if we assume no protection. In contrast, the dike and nourishment responses have substantial costs. The incremental adaptation costs7 are estimated at roughly between US $25 and $270 billion (1995 values) per annum for 0.5 and 2.0 m in 2100, respectively. Dike costs dominate these response costs, and dike maintenance becomes an increasing component of the costs over time. This illustrates an important long-term consequence of a widespread protection response to sea-level rise that will continue to grow beyond 2100. In 2100, the relative mix of nourishment, dike construction/upgrade and dike maintenance costs is 36, 39 and 25 per cent; and 13, 51 and 37 per cent for the 0.5 and 2.0 m rise in sea level, respectively. The regional spread of these costs is quite variable with east Asia, North America Atlantic, North America Pacific, north and west Europe and South America Atlantic being the five regions with the highest costs ... In terms of avoided human displacement as a function of protection investment, not surprisingly, the benefits are highest in the regions with most threatened people: east Asia, south Asia and southeast Asia. It directly affects those on the coast, but also has knock-on effects further inland.

Indeed, indeed, a system of dykes to sort out the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta will be something to see. How relaxed Bangladesh must be, seeing as how New South Wales has already demonstrated with impeccable skill how it's done …


Filled with enormous dyke-sustained confidence, the pond moved on to the adaptations to be undertaken, the actions to be done … and what do you know, it turned out to be a breeze ...


He never changes, does he?

The pond would be filthy rich if it had ten bucks for every time that the Lomborgian wonder explained that the most effect way to address climate change was to piss money against the wall (aka 'investment') in green research and development. He's even more one note than prattling Polonius.

Strange, the pond thought we had to surround the continents with dykes …which sounds a tad more expensive than a little r and d ...

Never mind, even James Murdoch decided he'd had enough of climate science denialism down under, and so all the pond can do is wish the Lomborgian wonder all the best with his dykes …


13 comments:

  1. So - last week the 'column' slipped in some names that were incorrect. Naughty column, go sit in the sorry corner.

    Of course, had Polonius checked the column before it snuck into print, alarms would have gone off in his head, because Angelo Vasta occupies that unusual place in the legal and constitutional history of this land - being removed from office by Parliament, for not practicing social distancing from a bunch of crooks in Queensland. Surely that item would have lodged in the Polonial brain, to be brought out in the recurring discussions about 'unelected judges' and similar diversions.

    The 'incorrect' Derrington might be attributed more simply to a disinclination to accept or understand that women might occupy positions on the higher courts of this land. It takes time for some of these concepts to sink in.

    Although the name of Sarah Derrington should have registered with Polonius (assuming he reads any other part of the Flagship) because 'Legal Affairs Editor' Merritt has been plundering her reports and speeches on 'class actions' in Australia to give the appearance of legal subtlety to their campaign, with the IPA, against representative proceedings. She has been a convenient source of legal subtlety because even the Flagship should be a little cautious in making a case just by braying about lawyers getting money.


    Chadwick.

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    1. But no obvious compunction U-Chad, not even a hint of regret. Though I guess that's the way with Polonius: one just has to accept him as the erudite wonder that he proudly imagines he is.

      He did credit Frydenberg with this amazing piece of wisdom though: "Thatcher and Reagan are figures of hate for the left because they were so successful." Yep, gotta pay that one: Ronnie and Maggie were very successful in a fore-runner to Trump way.

      Polonius also avers that "The Treasurer responded that Thatcher and Reagan dealt very successfully with the challenges they faced and mentioned stagflation..." That says it all then: Maggie and Ronnie as the proud conquerors of stagflation and nobody should make any mention of Volcker.

      But then, the Wikipedia article on Stagflation doesn't mention Thatcher or Reagan, even in passing:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation

      Delete
  2. Lomborg must be pissed that Shellenberger beat him to the shelves with a similar lukewarmist book, but what the hell, he needs the publicity so here we have another opinion piece for the Oz.

    Joseph Stiglitz has a review of the latest offering here:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/books/review/bjorn-lomborg-false-alarm-joseph-stiglitz.html

    If you cannot be bothered, the final paragraph reads "This book proves the aphorism that a little knowledge is dangerous. It’s nominally about air pollution. It’s really about mind pollution."

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    1. Stiglitz makes a key point when he declares: "...Nordhaus’s and Lomborg’s underestimation of the damage associated with climate change." That's always a good trick for something you are preaching against: overestimate costs and underestimate benefits. And vice versa for those things you are for.

      In the meantime, the scientists are getting on with the job of trying to be as accurate and they can about what is most likely to really happen:
      Worst- and Best-Case Scenarios for Warming Less Likely, Groundbreaking Study Finds
      https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/worst-and-best-case-scenarios-for-warming-less-likely-groundbreaking-study-finds/

      Or to put it simply: it isn't quite as bad as our worst fears, but it is much worse than our best hopes. Sorta like a universal formula, that.

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  3. Might as well reference this piece by Richard Denniss regarding the limitations, or more correctly, the misuse of economics in public debate.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2020/08/01/the-true-cost-traumatised-nation/159620400010198

    "There’s no doubt that if you want to make a case to cut welfare for the poor, cut taxes for the rich or frack for gas on fertile farmland, economists are the first port of call for those trying to dress up personal interest as national interest"

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  4. Befuddled - thank you for both links. The 'Saturday Paper' comes to a pay hurdle, but I see enough for me to agree with Denniss that the trolley 'dilemma' is an artificial construction of little significance to the avowed study of economics.

    A useful paper, that has been around a long time, is titled 'Too many proposals pass the benefit cost test'. It is by John Hoehn and Alan Randall (who made some good contributions to Australian natural resource economics on an extended visit here). It appeared in 'American Economic Review' in 1989 79 (#3) 544-551.

    The essential message is that proposals 'in the national interest' are evaluated separately and sequentially, which makes no allowance for interaction. The economy into which their boosters wish to inject these bright ideas is, by any measure, bounded, but they treat accumulating hypothetical benefits as unbounded - so readily overestimated; always.

    The converse of this is when hired 'economists' write in opposition, usually to proposed controls with environmental benefits, when they show that the proposal will have multiple, and sequential, impacts, beyond the industry targeted, leading, inexorably, to collapse of the entire economy.

    South Australia has some hugely amusing files from when it introduced container deposit legislation. There were earnest submissions showing that the extra cost of a can of Coke would turn people away from buying groceries, container manufacturers would go out of business, there would be no bottles for the wine industry, which would collapse. And, of course, these 'opinions' always, but always, get a doom'n'gloom headline in the Limited News press. Look at the steady delay in uptake of container deposits in other states.

    Chadwick.

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    1. The content in the Saturday Paper is a bit patchy so I don't subscribe but if I can see a couple of interesting articles I buy the tree killer edition. If you provide an email you can also view one free article a week.

      Denniss provides some examples to highlight the absurdity of trying to reduce everything to a simple cost

      "Imagine that rather than epidemiologists warning that tens of thousands might die from Covid-19, a warning came from ASIO after it intercepted phone calls between suspected terrorists talking about sophisticated plans to blow up dozens of planes. Would anyone call an economist?"

      or

      "Imagine if a foreign country landed troops west of Broome, annexed 10,000 square kilometres and declared the territory to be theirs. Some economists counsel against an expensive war on the basis that, although the land was deemed to be of enormous cultural significance to the local Indigenous populations, it had little in the way of commercial tourism or mining value. Would anyone listen?"

      The tactics you describe play out every day to benefit resource industries and delay meaningful change in the energy sector. No one seems to notice that the outcome is often the dead opposite of the forecast.

      Delete
  5. Oh, and just to wrap up the weekend - this has appeared on Tony Windsor's site, having come from - Adam Creighton. Yep -THAT Adam Creighton.

    Shameful what's occurring in Victoria.
    Effective dictatorship declared.
    Devastating, destructive power of the state on full display.
    Respect for the individual clearly irrelevant.
    What's the point in being alive if you can't live?
    3:02 PM · Aug 2, 2020·Twitter Web App

    Chadwick

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    1. Lovely to see such a sensible, balanced response from the Killer as usual.

      Though indeed it is quite appalling that I can no longer go for my 2:00am or 3:00am morning walk even though here's almost no living creatures of any kind (except an occasional frogmouth) around at that time. So that's why I'm up now scribbling on loonpond.

      But fortunately, all of the really important places to go are within a 5 km radius - so long as the limit really is an 'as the crow flies' radius and not an 'as the snail crawls' actual distance travelled by road.

      Delete
    2. Grrrr! Testing!
      Replied twice this morning GB, (lengthy) and as soon as I hit publish all vanishes as Google takes over the option box. Sorry to hear your exercise routine has been nobbled. Early morn is a fine time to walk. Serene quietness.
      Found this in the vinyl box yesterday. A bit of local talent. Cheers, CA.
      https://youtu.be/HcaF3_DcdBg

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    3. Then don't forget to do what I suggested, CA: do like me and draft your entries in a notepad window and then copy them into the loonpond screen when you are ready. That way, even if disaster strikes, you still have what you've written and you can simply try again.

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    4. Mark Gillespie: another one I hadn't even heard of, much less heard, and it's all but 40 years old. Nicely rhythmic though. The follow-on that youtube automatically presented me with was his Damsel in Distress from 1980. Thanks.

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    5. Indeed... I ignored your advice as I had replied to John C with no problem and presumed.....!:))
      Yes, Mogadon Sister. A bit of an invisible Australian musician who only released a couple of albums, but a gifted and sometimes prophetic songwriter. Highly underrated for mine.....and did a few scarce gigs with the influential Ross Hannaford(ex. Daddy Cool)

      Delete

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