The pond well remembers the time that it heard the earth-shattering, knee-trembling news that Keith was shuttling off and Rebecca Weisser was the new Queen of Quad Rant, setting hearts aflutter.
The pond was sitting down to a lunch of blackberries and yoghurt, and idly attended to the comments section of the pond, only to splutter a mix of blackberries and yoghurt over the iPad. Grifters gotta grift, hustlers gotta hustle ... and a quick check proved it was so ... and she was still married to that other great Australian journalist, the Caterist, and best news of all, the Schuttle was only shuttling over to Quad Rant books ...
The very next minute, as it was wiping off the congealed mess of blackberries, the pond was hearing the news that a dinkum Aussie gal was Queen of the Danes and sure enough, this day the reptiles were in a state of high excitement, with Matthew Denholm furiously scribbling Mary, our flannie Queen, wins hearts, republican and monarchist.
The opening line ensured the reptiles gave the pond its nausea quotient for the day.
It’s a journey more over-the-top rom-com than traditional fairytale – from VB-drinking, flannelette-shirt wearing Tassie party girl to European queen.
Then it was down to serious business, because the pond's summer school of herpetology doesn't have time to contemplate the business of assorted queens ...
Ancient, venerable Troy was in a state of high dudgeon, furiously scribbling Iraq cabinet papers debacle is either ‘cover up’ or pure farce.
The pond seems to remember reading this last night and yet the date stamp read ...
5:00AM January 2, 2024
No doubt there was some kind of reptile conspiracy involved ... and the pond must admit it cut short ancient Troy's rage by starting some way down after the start ...
At the December 5 media briefing about the cabinet records to be released on January 1, it was confirmed there was no written cabinet submission about the benefits, costs and implications of joining the Iraq war. All of the critical briefings and discussions took place in the National Security Committee.
Astonishing really, given all the remarkable revelations about the recently discovered weapons of mass destruction discovered by the lying rodent's team.
Meanwhile, the reptiles offered one of their media link distractions ...
Cabinet documents uncover Howard government’s entry into Iraq War
Then it was back to ancient Troy, in a pious rage ...
But it just so happens that records relating to the most important decision taken by cabinet ministers in 2003, deploying forces to Iraq, which were largely NSC records, have not been released at all. How could this be an oversight?
Just one cabinet minute detailing the decision to join the Iraq war has been released but no submissions, no briefings by security or military agencies and no minutes recording discussions have been made public because they are all NSC records.
But guess what? The official historians of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have, or will be, given access to NSC records. The National Archives confirmed this. But what about the Australian people? Do they have to wait for official, often censored, histories to gain any insight into these NSC records?
The official cabinet historian, David Lee, was not allowed any access to NSC records. How do we know this? Because I asked him at the media briefing in December. This is utterly absurd. Lee, a highly respected historian, was not given access to records about the most important cabinet matter in 2003.
I subsequently asked Howard, former defence minister Robert Hill and former treasurer Peter Costello – all members of the NSC – if they had any role in the decision to keep records top-secret. They did not. Moreover, they called for them to be released without delay.
These interviews were followed up with a series of questions and phone calls to the department and the National Archives. My questions were as follows:
1. Why have these NSC records not been transferred to the National Archives for public release in accordance with the Archives Act 1983, which stipulates they should be after 15 years in order to be made public after 20 years?
2. Who made this decision and when was it made?
3. Does the government believe the Australian people have a right to know about deliberations undertaken in the NSC to commit forces to war more than 20 years ago?
4. Why has exclusive access to these records been given to the official historians of operations of Iraq and Afghanistan rather than the official cabinet historian and, on January 1, 2024, the Australian people?
5. What consultation was there with former prime minister John Howard and ministers in his government about withholding these records from public release despite being in the open access period on January 1, 2024?
6. When will records from the NSC be made available for public access?
These questions, however, were met with contempt. The department and the National Archives refused to answer them. Instead, they tried to deceive me by insisting many records from the NSC, and others, relating to Iraq were to be released. But, of course, no NSC records relating to Iraq have been released.
In a statement just hours before the cabinet papers were to be made public on January 1 that would make the writers of Yes Minister blush, the department claimed “due to apparent administrative oversights” a “small number” of records were not transferred to the National Archives.
This is high farce. They also blamed – can you believe it? – Covid disruptions in 2020. It is too convenient to blame the Morrison government. Did they not know that every year they release cabinet records from 20 years ago and the most important issue in 2003 was Iraq?
Moreover, following my queries, the records were suddenly “located” and “inspected”, and “transferred” 10 days before January 1. So why haven’t they been released? The announcement, in the New Year’s Eve statement, of an “independent review” by former departmental secretary Dennis Richardson may give us that answer.
Anthony Albanese, who promised to end the culture of secrecy and cover-up, and inaugurate a new era of transparency and accountability in government, needs to take action. It cannot be brushed aside.
The Albanese government is ultimately responsible for this debacle because it had time to address it four weeks ago when it was first raised and release the records, but declined to do so. The Prime Minister needs answers and so do we, the Australian people, who have a right to know.
War criminals covering up their war crimes and suddenly it's all the fault of Albo? Silly old ancient Troy does deserve a fair amount of contempt.
Relax. The astonishing news of all the WMDs discovered by the lying rodent's expert team can remain slumbering away peacefully in some cabinet somewhere ...
Then came Killer news from the US ...
Donald Trump’s top defence advisers warn against selling nuclear subs to Australia
Inevitably there was a snap of the mango Mussolini at the top of the piece, captioned thusly ...
Former US President Donald Trump’s top defence adviser says the US would be ‘crazy’ to sell nuclear submarines to Australia.
The pond wondered what to think, and was alarmed to discover that Australia was entirely defenceless, the bromancer having apparently taken time off for the silly season, and so unavailable to contemplate the Killer yarn ...
By adam creighton
9:33PM January 1, 2024
It turned out that the Chairman Emeritus's team had struck another blow for freedumb ... and that Killer had had a few EXCLUSIVE chats with mango Mussolini nutters ...
Just weeks after the US congress passed laws allowing President Joe Biden to sell Virginia-class boats to its AUKUS ally in Canberra, ex-Pentagon official Elbridge Colby and former republican Senate security adviser Alex Velez-Green say the superpower’s own navy has too few boats spare to sell to Australia unless production greatly speeds up.
The concerns of Mr Colby and Mr Velez-Green – two of the most respected thought leaders in US conservative circles – will raise questions for Anthony Albanese and Labor over how a Republican victory in next year’s presidential election might affect the AUKUS security pact.
Former president Donald Trump has held a consistent lead over Mr Biden in head-to-head polls in the lead-up to the first presidential primaries next month, and Mr Trump’s closest Republican rival, ex-UN ambassador Nikki Haley, leads Mr Biden by an even wider margin.
With the AUKUS legislation passed last month allowing both a future president and congress to stop the submarine sale if it is not certified as in the US’s national interests, growing scepticism from Republican security figures could sway the next GOP president against sending nuclear boats to Australia.
Mr Colby – who has advised Mr Trump, and ex-prime ministers Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull – told The Australian it would be “crazy” to sell three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines to Australia.
Most respected thought leaders, and they're going to be working for the mango Mussolini? And so the abuse of the English language continues apace, with the reptiles wildly excited about the news of the fascist's progress ...
Donald Trump commands a 34-point lead ahead of Iowa caucus
It was with some fair relief that at least the bromancer might soon be getting his war with Cheenah ...
“Australia is America’s best ally; it would thus be highly desirable to be able to provide Australia with US attack submarines, but these submarines are the ace in the hole for a fight with China,” Mr Colby said.
“The US has far too few available, many are in maintenance, and the production schedule is way below what we need.
“We cannot and should not do something crazy, the best way to avoid a serious problem on this is for Washington and Canberra to face facts and adapt early, rather than wait until it’s too late to miss the iceberg.”
Mr Colby’s comments came after the US House of Representatives passed the $US886bn National Defence Authorisation Act, which gave the green light for the sale of at least three Virginia-class submarines to Australia in the early 2030s provided the US president could then certify their sale would not “degrade United States undersea capabilities”.
Former UN ambassador and 2024 Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley.
What a slave to trends, but the pond couldn't help blaming the US education system for Nikki's mishap ...
Sorry, the pond realises that summer school herpetology studies must be barebones ... and went back to Killer, looking for more news of the impending war with Cheenah, hopefully - for the bromancer's armchair general status - by Xmas this year ...
The Australian revealed last month that a future US president would have to certify to congress that the transfer of nuclear submarines to Australia would not undermine America’s military capabilities or foreign policy under the law allowing the Virginia sale.
Republican doubts over AUKUS also come in the wake of the Albanese government rebuffing a Pentagon request for a boat to help protect Red Sea routes from Houthi rebels amid the Israel-Hamas war, instead only sending six diplomatic staff to assist with co-ordination efforts for the maritime coalition in Bahrain.
Mr Velez-Green, a senior policy adviser in The Heritage Foundation, and before that Republican senator Josh Hawley’s national security adviser, said any submarines transfer should be contingent on US shipyards’ greatly increasing production of Virginia-class boats from 1.2 to more than two a year.
“If we’re not getting more boats out, we’re just not going to be able to do it,” Mr Velez-Green told The Australian.
“These are a set of assets that we need a husband to take care of, and really protect as much as possible for any contingency.”
The US submarine force, one of the few areas within the US military still more advanced and powerful than its Chinese counterpart, is considered the most important deterrent to any Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which many analysts predict could occur before 2030 as China engages in increasingly provocative behaviour in the Indo-Pacific.
“If you get into a situation where ostensibly we’re supposed to transfer these boats, but they are critical to our ability to maintain deterrence or win (against China) if deterrence fails, I mean, at that point, I have to question giving them up,” Mr Valdez-Green said.
“We’ve got to get to a place where we can transfer those assets without diminishing in any meaningful sense our ability to deter Chinese aggression.”
Say what? The bromancer's war with Cheenah might only happen "before 2030"?
That's simply not good enough, and even worse the snap was really boring ...
Joe Biden, Rishi Sunak and Anthony Albanese at the AUKUS summit.
Then Killer seemed to splutter a little as he finished his tale of woe ...
In July, 22 Republicans in congress demanded the White House “immediately” provide a plan to lift production of Virginia-class submarines from 1.2 to “a minimum of 2.5” per year.
“The administration’s current plan requires the transfer of three US Virginia-class attack submarines to Australia from the existing US submarine fleet without a clear plan for replacing these submarines,” the letter, signed by influential Republicans including Ted Cruz and Susan Collins, said.
“This plan, if implemented without change, would unacceptably weaken the US fleet even as China seeks to expand its military power and influence.”
The White House proposed an additional $US3.4bn in funding for the US Navy, which is yet to pass congress, being part of a supplementary funding bill that includes contentious aid for Ukraine and Israel, and changes to US immigration law bitterly contested among Republicans and Democrats.
Had there really been anything in this EXCLUSIVE that we didn't already know about the Chairman Emeritus's GOP mob, designed to break the heart of the bromancer?
How can the bromancer fight his armchair general war armed with a pop gun?
Not to worry, the pond is sure the bro will deal with the issue on his return ...
Meanwhile, courtesy of the IPA-dwelling Riddster, BOM deserves criticism, but not over its short-term forecasts, the reptiles suddenly discovered that the weather had been acting strange of late.
There was a snap to prove it ...
Houses in Bloomfield, between Shire of Cook and Douglas, submerged in water during the Cairns Floods post Cyclone Jasper.
Sure there'd been many more floods since the ones that struck Cairns, but how could the reptiles know about them?
Enough already, the pond was forgetting it was in barebones summer school mode, and it was on to the Riddster's byline...
5:00AM January 2, 2024
Inevitably the Riddster's generous forgiving of short term BOM errors was simply so the Riddster could discover an even deeper and more malevolent conspiracy ...
Weather prediction is difficult. At best one can hope only to improve probabilities. And the weather hardest to predict is extreme events associated with storms. These systems are extremely “nonlinear”, to use the parlance of meteorology.
When there are large quantities of moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the air need be lifted only slightly to trigger a violent updraft.
It is a huge slow-motion explosion where the fuel is the invisible water vapour turning into cloud. The amounts of energy involved can be huge – think Hiroshima atom bomb – and a tiny perturbation can set them off. It is often stated that a butterfly flapping its wings could trigger the storm, at least theoretically.
This is one of the least predictable phenomena on Earth. At best, weather prediction can indicate only that such storms are likely at a rough time and place. Perhaps the BOM can get the final warnings out a little faster, but a storm can morph into a supercell in a few minutes.
Don't be fooled by this pious forgiveness ... the Caterist, an expert on the role that Queensland quarries can play in Queensland floods, was on hand to berate the BOM ...
‘They’ve got to do better’: Nick Cater slams BoM for failing to warn of Qld floods
Time for the deep conspiracy ...
The result of unjustified expectations of prediction accuracy will result in the bureau being forced to cover itself and issue warnings whenever there is a minute possibility of extreme weather. The predictions will become meaningless.
The BOM has a truly superb observation network of rain radars, rain gauges and flood levels. Millions of people use these, especially in country areas, for everything from bringing in the washing to gauging when it will be possible to drive across a flooded creek. This network gives us remarkable ability to see what is happening. Thirty years ago, we were almost blind compared with today.
So give the BOM a break, at least on this matter. But there are two BOMs. There is the operational weather BOM, which does the daily forecasts and measurements, and then there is the climate change part of the BOM. And that is where the criticism should be levelled.
Ah climate change ... and while the reptiles favoured an anodyne snap ...
Cairns Mayor Terry James addresses the media on the ongoing response after Cyclone Jasper and the subsequent flooding.
... the pond thought that the Riddster, with his IPA credentials, deserved a better and more fitting illustration ...
Another major problem within the bureau is the section dealing with long-term temperature measurements. Most long-term measurements have been modified (homogenised), almost always making past temperatures cooler.
The BOM does not dispute it has done this, but there is a huge argument about whether it has done it in a justifiable way, and BOM has failed to release all its data about these temperature adjustments. This is inexcusable and breeds concerns about the bureau’s scientific integrity.
There is also the habit of the BOM to associate every extreme, or record-breaking, weather event with climate change. In fact, record events are inevitable every year because of the huge scale of the observation network.
Government to conduct review on BOM warning systems
But the pond was still marvelling at that Riddster line ...
In fact, record events are inevitable every year because of the huge scale of the observation network.
But what of the record events around the world?
The perfidious French at France 24 seemed to think there was some kind of global phenomenon at work ...
On and on the perfidious French carried on ...
The heat was not confined to land; the planet's oceans also experienced frighteningly high temperatures. March, April, May, June, July, August, September and October all recorded their hottest maritime temperatures ever.
On July 30, the average global ocean surface temperature reached an unprecedented 20.96°C, according to the European climate monitoring service, the Copernicus Institute. Just a month later, the Mediterranean Sea set its daily heat record, with a median temperature of 28.71°C, according to the main Spanish maritime research centre.
These repeated new records indicate an increasing frequency of marine heatwaves, something that could have dramatic impacts on biodiversity.
There was so much that the pond had to break summer school rules with another visual ...
What a relief to turn back to the Riddster to discover it was just a local conspiracy ...
But the climate section of the BOM uses record events for political purposes.
Should we have an inquiry into the BOM? Yes. But the good guys of the BOM short-term weather forecasting department need to stand up against the anti-science catastrophists in their climate department. Otherwise they deserve to be tarred with the same brush.
Peter Ridd is a physicist, adjunct fellow with the Institute of Public Affairs and chairman of the Australian Environment Foundation.
Ah, yes, the anti-science catastrophists ... another victory for the Riddster and the IPA ...
The pond was reminded of Michael Pascoe's pre-Xmas offering in The New Daily, The IPA is taking Gina Rinehart for a ride down the garden path...
Inter alia ...
In a four-part series in 2019, Crikey argued that one of the IPA’s greatest successes had been to stitch climate denialism into the very fabric of the conservative political identity.
Maybe it’s just a coincidence that the IPA has been well funded – as a tax deduction – by mining profits.
Which is where the suspicion about motive arises. In my opinion, it’s hard to believe the IPA was seriously interested in working out how much land is likely to be used in our transition to renewable energy, given the pathetic quality of its “research”.
The Bannon call to “flood the zone” makes more sense. A CNN report on a court appearance by the former (and perhaps future) Trump advisor put the tactic in context:
“His quote is like a compass that orients this crazy era of American politics. ‘The Democrats don’t matter,’ Bannon told (author Michael) Lewis. ‘The real opposition is the media. And the way to deal with them is to flood the zone with shit.’
“That’s the Bannon business model: Flood the zone. Stink up the joint. As Jonathan Rauch once said, citing Bannon’s infamous quote, ‘This is not about persuasion: This is about disorientation.’”
At the time of writing, there had been 176,000 views of just that one silly IPA tweet. Some people gullible enough to be taken in by it including, going by her AFR awards night speech, Australia’s richest person.
Yet the rubbish circulates and finds supporters among those who want to believe it. It is reliably and uncritically regurgitated by denialists, turning up in comics like the Spectator and spread in the echo chambers of the deluded or self-interested.
And it is tax deductible, costing the rest of us money.
Merry Christmas.
Oh come on, be fair, it's not just the Speccie mob. The reptiles at the lizard Oz love to stink up the joint too ... and the Riddster is always ready to help with manure and poo duties...
By the way, that Crikey piece ...
Last, but certainly by no means least, good old Dame Groan, a true stayer, wasn't slacking for the holyday season, and was on hand to ask a penetrating question:
Did Covid really change anything about our economy?
Naturally the reptiles had the perfect snap for the piece ...
Flinders St station, in the heart of Melbourne, during one of the cities lockdowns in 2021.
Then came the byline ...
5:00AM January 2, 2024
Then something truly peculiar happened.
Was Dame Groan aware of her reputation as a perpetual Groaner?
For some reason, she decided that she was a peace and flower lover ...
I normally wouldn’t buy indoor plants because we move around a fair bit. But my green-fingered neighbour has kept this plant alive all that time. It prompts me to ask the question: did Covid really change anything, at least economically speaking?
In some respects, the post-Covid world looks better than before. After all, the rate of unemployment has been below 4 per cent from early 2022 compared with a rate close to 5 per cent going into the pandemic. The employment-to-population ratio has jumped by more than two percentage points and the participation rate is at a historic high.
When the pandemic first broke out and state governments, in particular, began to impose restrictions, including periods of lockdown, there was a widespread view that property prices would plummet, with any recovery very uncertain. As events panned out, property prices fell briefly but have since recovered, and a bit more.
It turned out that it was the preamble to a bit of a holiday egg beater piece, much froth and foam, but not much substance, and the reptiles recognised this by interrupting the groaning ...
‘Win for common sense’: David Littleproud on FWC working from home ruling
It turned out that "Covid" was just an eye-catching headline, designed to appeal to Dame Groan's reptile demographic ...
Certainly, many small businesses were hit for six by government actions, but the overall economy continued to grow. With the opening of the international borders, the absolute level of GDP has been inflated by the surge in net overseas migration, in part reflecting a catch-up for the period of closed borders.
It is important to note here that Australia has recorded falling per capita GDP this year.
The reality is that the real economic impact of Covid is not easily detected by simply observing the surface; it’s necessary to have a look at what’s going on underneath to make an accurate assessment. It may look like business as usual, but there have been several fundamental economic changes with ongoing consequences.
One of the most obvious fiscal features of Covid was the extremely large jump in government payments as households and businesses were supported in various ways to offset the impact of the imposed lockdowns and other restrictions. Federal annual real government spending went from $550bn before the pandemic to $654bn in 2020-21; from 24.6 per cent of GDP in 2018-19 to 31.4 per cent in 2020-21. This is an extraordinary increase, with net government debt increasing by $100bn in one year alone (between 2019-20 and 2020-21).
Two important points flow from this step-up in government spending. The first is the circularity of the arrangements; the state governments would not have been able to impose the lockdowns, border closures and other restrictions were it not for the federal government compensating households and businesses. Had the benefits been more limited, these governments would have had to give much more thought to the policies they implemented. In addition, the relative ease for some workers to work from home enabled the lockdowns to be ordered to an extent that would have been unlikely in the past. (The WFH phenomenon continues, with uncertain but probably damaging effects on worker productivity.)
It was such a slow holyday story that the reptiles felt the need to remind the pond that SloMo had once been a thing ...
Scott Morrison addressing the media during a press conference held at Parliament House in Canberra.
Meanwhile, Dame Groan meandered on, in a way only genuine cultists might relish and enjoy... while all the pond could think about was another serve of blackberries ...
The second point is the seemingly permanent increase in the size of government, post the pandemic. This is the case for both federal and state governments. For example, if we look at the latest federal government mid-year economic and fiscal outlook, government spending remains above 26 per cent of GDP in every year to 2026-27. In other words, government spending looks like a one-way street: ratchet it up and don’t expect a return to the previous size of government.
Of course, it wasn’t only governments involved in offering economic support for the damage caused by Covid – or, to be more precise, government measures to deal with Covid.
The Reserve Bank was quick off the mark, implementing rapid cuts to the cash rate as well as engaging in quantitative easing. For those with a mortgage (or debt of any sort), monthly repayments quickly began to fall and many households were able to lock in low fixed interest rate mortgages for several years. Unsurprisingly, the combination of cheap money and the massive surge in government spending set the scene for potential inflationary pressures to emerge. In the context of global supply-side problems affecting many goods as well as building materials, it was only a matter of time before inflation would become a problem.
(For a time there was some political discussion of the need for local production of key goods, including pharmaceutical and technology products. With the exception of the US pushing on with local computer chips manufacturing, there has been little progress with this so-called on-shoring.)
The pond began to feel it was trapped back in the era when comrade Dan baiting was the reptile national sport ...
A quiet little bourke street near Myer, David Jones and the Emporium during Covid restrictions in July 2020.
Then came a remarkable thing. After all this blather about nothing much, Dame Groan tried her hand at whimsy ... actual, certifiable whimsy ...
To be sure, people were not able to spend money on certain goods and services and this partly accounts for the rise. But it’s not surprising that many households felt less financially pressured during Covid than before.
If we look at the most recent figures, however, we observe that those savings have been almost completely depleted, with the saving ratio a mere 1.1 per cent in the September quarter of 2023.
It’s understandable that policies decided during periods of great uncertainty – the onset of Covid is an example – can be highly defective (and ineffective). Everyone was uncertain about the seriousness of the virus, how quickly it would spread and what public health measures were really required.
Of course, Australia was not Robinson Crusoe in making these mistakes and, on the face of it, inflation is now returning to within target ranges in many countries. But there was no excuse for overlooking the economic policy lessons of the past and ignoring the risks that were being run by massively increasing government spending as well as running effectively zero interest rates.
Real household disposable incomes are now being hammered, making for lots of grumpy consumers (and voters). My peace lily seems blissfully unaware.
