Monday, August 04, 2025

In which Lord Downer and Major Mitchell go MIA, but there's a short Groaning and the quarry-whispering Caterist ...

 

The pond did wonder how the contemptible reptiles would spin the Sunday march, and they did their contemptible best ...



Stephen and Joanna led the way ...

PRO-PALESTINE DEMONSTRATION
‘Bridge to peace’ march marred by hate signs and Hamas horror
Sydney traffic was thrown into chaos as 90,000 pro-Palestine protesters marched across the Harbour Bridge on Sunday under a sea of umbrellas, Palestinian flags and crude anti-Israel signs.
by Stephen Rice and Joanna Panagopoulos

The reptiles added to this by throwing to "staff writers", quoting a man indignant at Hamas emulating him in the race to the starvation bottom ...

‘Hamas starving hostages as Nazis starved Jews’: Netanyahu
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accused Hamas of trying to ‘break us with horror propaganda’ as a second video emerged of an emaciated captive ‘near death’.
By Staff writers

And as an added distraction, they turned to nasty Niall ...

A genocide is under way – but not in Gaza
Energy wasted on luxury beliefs, such as the talk of recognising a Palestinian state, is diverting attention from the the real genocide going on in eastern Europe.
By Niall Ferguson
Columnist

The pond contemplated Niall only long enough to catch this bit of self-important aggrandising puffery - "As the author of The War of the World, I am qualified to disagree."

The pond is qualified to ignore a man inclined to such strutting and preening humbug.

Moving along, the reptiles also managed to make the march second in the news queue, with this terrifying headline dominating

Net billions: green light for PM to turbocharge energy revolution
Productivity Commission declares Anthony Albanese’s clean-energy transition will cost more than expected and require greater government intervention to hit climate targets without crippling the power grid.
By Geoff Chambers

That sounded a genuine shock, and when the pond looked over on the extreme far right, it discovered that Dame Groan had made a rare Monday excursion to deal with the matter ...



Naturally the pond wanted to satisfy the craving of Groan cultists, but not before doubling over with laughter ...

CUT & PASTE
The paper that has trouble with the truth
The New York Times stands alone as being inconsistently trustworthy. Its editors and staff have a record of manipulating news through omission and commission and the paper sometimes publishes outright lies.
By Alan Howe
History and Obituaries Editor

Talk about pot and kettle...

If the reptiles are going to have a substitute fielder for the Major, they'll need do a lot better than this.

The pond routinely observes the both siderism rampant at the NY Times, but the rag has nothing on the lies, distortions, omissions and commissions performed by the hive mind reptiles.

Meanwhile, Geoff was briefly top of the world ma, expounding on the latest reptile nightmare, in dire fear at the "agenda":

PM, Bowen handed climate warrior’s dream shopping list
The Productivity Commission-endorsed policies would pump steroids into Labor’s net-zero agenda.
By Geoff Chambers
Chief Political Correspondent

Nice try double barrelled Chambers, but accept no substitutes is the pond's golden rule when dealing with the reptiles, and so to the groaning ...



The header: Net-zero report predictable, but sloppy and absurd: Three Little Pigs, anyone? A national register of all homes according to climate resilience? The Productivity Commission should have refreshed its memory of The Three Little Pigs to appreciate the absurdity of this proposal.

The caption: Wind turbines of the Gullen Range wind farm near Goulburn in southern NSW. Picture: Max Mason-Hubers

The magickal proposal: This article contains features which are only available in the web version, Take me there

The pond was deeply disturbed at the thought that Dame Groan had offered only a two minute response, but wildly enthusiastic at the quality of the opening illustration.

Note the way that forlorn dead tree was picked out by ghostly light on the left, while on the bottom extreme right there were another set of ghostly dead branches forlornly waving at a darkened blood orange sky.

Those damned wind machines, not only do they kill the whales around Tamworth, they kill unkillable gum trees ...

What better way to set up Dame Groan?

The best you can say about the Productivity Commission is that it has become utterly predictable, if a bit sloppy. This time it’s about the net-zero transformation which it completely endorses.
Its core recommendations in the report about consistent incentives and faster approvals as key to the net zero transformation are along unsurprising lines.
Market mechanisms should drive emissions reduction rather than the panoply of schemes such as the Capacity Investment Scheme and a multitude of others, including the hilarious Hydrogen Headstart.
Renewable energy projects must be approved quickly based on national criteria.
We need an addition to the confusing architecture governing renewable energy and the associated requirements, the Clean Energy Coordinator-General.
Houses must be made resilient to the impact of climate change by instituting a national rating system – because that would work well.
Let’s face it: the federal government has no intention of ditching its non-market schemes to drive emissions reduction – what would be the fun in that. In any case, contracts have been signed, often for long periods of time.
The commission tells us the schemes will run out in 2030, but there is every expectation that they will be renewed.
But here’s the thing: if renewable energy is so much cheaper than other forms of energy, there is no case for any government mechanisms, market or non-market. This competitive advantage will drive private investors into adding to capacity because capturing most of the market will be assured based on price alone.
What, you say. If you add up all the factors needed to achieve 24/7 renewable energy including the need for wildly expensive new transmission lines and storage facilities – what about another Snowy 2.0, anyone? – it works out that renewable energy is actually very expensive.
This has been the experience around the world: the countries with the highest penetration of renewable energy have the highest electricity prices.
The reality is many people are telling porkies about the real cost of renewable energy which is why governments need to intervene in the market to subsidise it – and big time.
As for the idea of speeding up the approval of renewable energy and related projects, this is firming up as one of the strong recommendations from the Jim Chalmers productivity gabfest later this month. The fact the legitimate property rights of rural and regional landholders and communities are in effect stolen because of this proposal doesn’t seem to worry the PC these days – it would have done so in the past.
The very idea that there can be a “social licence” with land-hungry and intrusive renewable-energy installations and towering transmission lines is, of course, a nonsense. It’s one side loses and the other side wins, which in most cases is a self-interested overseas company that will flip the assets as quickly as possible.
And just in case you thought that the commission might argue for a smaller number of regulations, it wants to add a national register of the climate resilience of the housing stock.

Sorry, it would have been rude of the pond to interrupt the Dame in full featherless flight, but just as Dame Groan was getting into her stride, the reptiles interrupted with a poor quality image, A Little Golden Books cover of the children's tale Three Little Pigs. Picture: supplied




Why that was on the level of the pond itself, talking about the pleasures of doing a Tootle and leaving the hive mind tracks.

For whatever reason, Dame Groan decided the three pigs constituted a grand argument, and quickly wrapped this excursion up ...

I guess because people don’t know they live on a floodplain or in the path of a possible bushfire.
If there is one institutional level that is at fault here it is local governments, which have issued permits to build in areas that were never suitable for housing.
Just think of the compliance costs and argy-bargy of having a national register of all homes according to their climate resilience.
The PC staff should simply have refreshed their memory of The Three Little Pigs to appreciate the absurdity of this proposal.

The poor old biddy seemed to run out of huff and puff.

So apparently has Lord Downer, who after exclaiming last week that Havier Milei was today's most exciting politician, this day did a no show, while Major Mitchell also went MIA, presumably because life on the golf course was more exciting.

What a relief.

Oh bliss, oh p**p, it's almost as good as being spared news of the orange pumpkin king ...



That left the quarry-whispering Caterist (speaking of columnists that have trouble with the truth) as the bonus ...




The header: Policy of ‘good intentions’ is no substitute for realistic diplomacy, The rush to recognise Palestine unconditionally mirrors the declaration of net-zero targets without credible pathways. It reveals a deeper malaise in Western diplomacy.

The caption: Demonstrators march across the Sydney Harbour Bridge during a pro-Palestinian rally. Picture: AFP

The weird mantra: This article contains features which are only available in the web version, Take me there

The pond consoled itself, thinking it better to have a resident refugee Pom rather than a self-important Pom celebrate mass starvation as a means of waging war.

Even better, and despite it being a stretch, the Caterist managed to co-join the suffering of Palestinians with the march with climate science denialism, in a way only a flood-water whisperer could ...

Not everyone who marched across the Sydney Harbour Bridge on Sunday looks forward to the destruction of Israel, any more than everyone who protests for action on climate change anticipates the end of capitalism.
Most appeared to be driven by sentiment rather than substance. Their attachment to the Palestinian cause stems from misplaced compassion and a limited understanding of history. Their demand for an independent Palestinian state is little more than a catchphrase. They are unconcerned about the practicalities of achieving their chosen objectives or the unintended consequences that may follow.
But we are entitled to expect more from our political leaders than slogans and moral posturing. It is their task to move beyond the shibboleths – whether net zero or Palestinian statehood – and grapple with the devil in the details.
So it’s troubling to hear that Anthony Albanese is considering joining the cabal of Western world leaders engaged in performative diplomacy by recognising Palestinian statehood with no regard for the process by which it could be achieved.
The leaders of Britain, France and Canada – countries that once played a significant role in shaping the world order – have abandoned any attempt at statecraft, settling instead for cheap applause.

The reptiles were aghast at the marchers, Wikileaks founder Julian Assange and Craig Foster march across the Harbour Bridge during Sunday’s pro-Palestinian rally. Picture: Getty Images




Well you couldn't expect the reptiles to be aghast at a ticking clock ... sorry, sun dial ...



Count the Caterist as a man content to see mass starvation continue ...

There is little consideration of what an independent Palestine may look like or indeed if Palestine in its current form satisfies the criteria for statehood as defined under international law. They merely want to be part of the coalition of the righteous – leaders with a clearer moral understanding than Benjamin Netanyahu or Donald Trump.
Contrast today’s empty gestures with the sober deliberations that led to Israel’s establishment. Leaders such as US president Harry Truman, foreign ministers Ernest Bevin of Britain, Lester B. Pearson of Canada and our own HV Evatt recognised the Jewish people’s historical connection to the land of Israel and the moral obligation to recognise a Jewish homeland in response to the Holocaust. They recognised Israel’s legitimate claim for statehood under the criteria established in the 1933 Montevideo Convention: a permanent population, a defined territory, a functioning government and the capacity to engage peacefully with other states.
“Australia’s decision to fully recognise Israel was as inevitable as it was just,” Evatt said later. “The legal basis of Israel’s existence was unassailable.”
Palestine, fragmented between Fatah in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza, has nothing vaguely resembling a single, unified and effective government; its territorial integrity is compromised and borders are neither agreed on nor respected. Yet Jim Chalmers glibly insists that recognition of Palestinian statehood is a question of when, not if.
The process of achieving a two-state solution has exhausted the patience of many would-be peacemakers. Some were rewarded with the Nobel Peace Prize and some with an assassin’s bullet. Yet the task of building a Palestinian state, where none previously had existed, defeated the best of them.

There is of course plenty to consider concerning what Gaza might look like at the moment ...




Relax, that news, At least six die of starvation in Gaza as more deaths reported at aid sites has the IDF's full concern.

Palestinian Red Crescent hit by strike
The deaths came as the Palestinian Red Crescent Society (PRCS) said Israel hit its headquarters in the southern city of Khan Younis overnight, killing one staffer and injuring another three.
The organisation, which is responsible for health services such as paramedics in Gaza, said the compound had been hit three times by Israeli artillery fire in the early hours of Sunday morning.
Vision released by the PRCS showed the destruction inside, with windows blown out and walls and ceilings seriously damaged, and blood covering the floor in some places.
"Despite being clearly marked with the internationally recognised Red Crescent emblem, the building was deliberately targeted by Israeli forces," the PRCS said in a statement.
"This is a blatant breach of international humanitarian law, which strictly safeguards and protects medical facilities, Red Cross/Red Crescent personnel, and the Red Crescent emblem during armed conflicts
"PRCS holds the international community fully responsible for its continued silence in the face of ongoing violations targeting its personnel, facilities, and ambulances — despite the emblem's clear protection under law."
The organisation said 51 PRCS staff and volunteers had been killed during the war.

An investigation is under way, and a report absolving the IDF and the current government of Israel should be to hand sometime in the next few years, perhaps around the time of delivery of the first AUKUS sub or the pond's SMR...

Back to the reptiles and they too interrupted the Caterist, Thousands of pro-Palestinian protesters poured onto the Sydney Harbour Bridge, forcing it to close to traffic for hours. In heavy rain, people waved flags and chanted for justice, with Julian Assange making one of his first public appearances since returning to Australia.




Poor reptiles ...insulated by their hive mind paywall, they really did get left behind by social media. 

You can find that "news" on YouTube if you like, but the pond would rather link to a dental chair.

On with the Caterist, amazingly managing to push Gaza and climate change denialism at the same time ...

As Charles Moore observed in British newspaper The Telegraph at the weekend, the two-state solution is the diplomatic equivalent of “Thy kingdom come”: a noble aspiration but hardly likely or imminent. To imagine that independence would create a nation such as, say, East Timor – stable, democratic, international law-abiding and relatively free from corruption – is absurd. Without the eradication of Hamas in Gaza and a profound change of heart by the Palestinian Authority leadership in the West Bank, an independent Palestine can mean only one thing: a state whose largest import is international aid and chief export is terrorism.
George W. Bush’s legacy is contested but few could argue with his insistence that terror would never create a Palestinian state. In a landmark speech in June 2002, Bush detailed the reforms required before Palestine could be considered a viable independent state: the transfer of power from the few to an elected legislature, establishment of a constitutional framework, checks on official corruption, transparent public financing and a reliable justice system to punish those who prey on the innocent. As with Iraq, Bush set the bar impossibly high. Yet he cannot be faulted on matters of principle, unlike the current stock of leaders who imagine Palestinian independence can be built on the cheap.
The rush to recognise Palestine unconditionally mirrors the declaration of net-zero targets without credible pathways. It reveals a deeper malaise in Western diplomacy: a retreat from realism and pragmatic detachment towards the politics of good intentions.
Where diplomacy once required trade-offs, negotiation, insti­tution-building and enforce­ment, today it is merely sufficient to show that one’s heart is in the right place.
The second half of the 20th century was shaped by leaders of stature such as Winston Churchill, Charles de Gaulle and Canada’s Mackenzie King. Their legacy is at risk of being destroyed by unserious successors such as Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Mark Carney – leaders unprepared for the hard work of building Palestinian capacity through staged autonomy, security co-operation and mutual recognition.
In the fog of moral confusion, Hamas is rewarded for the terrorist atrocity that triggered the conflict and for its cruelty to Gazan residents, whose suffering could have been curtailed by releasing hostages, renouncing violence and disarming.

The reptiles again interrupted, with a sight designed to instil fear in the hive mind, Hamas fighters at the site of the handing over of Israeli hostages in the Gaza Strip in February. Picture: AFP



By this point the pond felt caught in a dilemma, not unusual in relation to the hive mind ...



And so to wrap up this outing into the inverted ethical universe only inhabited by quarry whisperers and other lizard Oz reptiles ...

In this inverted ethical universe it is Israel that must meet the conditions set by Starmer, for whom Palestinian recognition is wielded as a stick to beat Israel. In a statement from Downing Street, Starmer threatens to recognise Palestine unless the Israeli government “takes substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza, reaches a ceasefire, makes clear there will be no annexation in the West Bank, and commits to a long-term peace process that delivers a two-state solution.” Carney calls for co-ordinated international action to recognise Palestine to “support peace, security and the dignity of all human life”. Both leaders appear ignorant of Hamas’s stated refusal to recognise the state of Israel – an unambiguous demand for a one-state solution. Without the hard work of mediating intra-Palestinian reconciliation, helping construct viable institutions, and guaranteeing security arrangements, a two-state solution is merely box-ticking. It is profoundly hypocritical and ultimately cowardly. The passion for statehood does not extend to Taiwan, which meets all Montevideo criteria and has a functioning democracy, because it’s geopolitically inconvenient.
The consequences of gesture diplomacy are already clear: a fractured Middle East, a widening gulf between aspiration and achievement, and a fraying social fabric at home. Recognition without responsibility is not peace-building, it is political theatre. Meanwhile, the resolution of the question of statehood is entirely in the Palestinians’ hands. The right to join the community of nations must be earned, not bestowed.
Nick Cater is a senior fellow at Menzies Research Centre.

Only a flood-water whisperer of the first deluded water could scribble the resolution of the question of statehood is entirely in the Palestinians’ hands. 

What was that you wrote Alan? 

The paper that has trouble with the truth

Fair cop, wrong rag ...

And so to conclude with the infallible Pope...




It's always in the details. The mango Mussolini might have featured this day, but he's always present, in a Loona Park way, currently showing his presidential skills and mindset by feuding with tha God ...




8 comments:

  1. Garnaut antidote to The Dame, as she is a brazen culture warhammer, incapable of seeing forward out of her one right eye. Like AC/DC, she has written the same album & column 17 onehundyeyedmillion times, saying;
    "The reality is many people are telling porkies about the real cost of renewable energy which is why governments need to intervene in the market to subsidise it "

    Imagine the dame headlining with..
    "We cannot understand the economy's underperformance without recognising the increasing claims of economic rents on national income." Says Ross Garnaut.[1]
    Or [2] "Renewable Energy Fit for a Superpower". Garnaut'd.
    Or "Economists want a carbon price comeback – but does Australia have the political courage?"
    Published: August 4, 2025 
    https://theconversation.com/economists-want-a-carbon-price-comeback-but-does-australia-have-the-political-courage-262127

    A koolaid induced dogwhistle conjured in the one eyed mind's for true belivers only, for Limited News... and detrimental Sky ... in the Guardian today. At least the younguns have some sense...
    "Young Liberals urge Coalition to distance itself from Sky News and blame Maga ‘mirage’ for Dutton loss"
    ... "The 31-page assessment, handed to the review being led by Liberal elders Pru Goward and Nick Minchin," ... "“Viewership data shows that most Australians do not engage with overtly political commentary on traditional media, such as evening commentators on Sky News."
    "Yet much of our party’s policy agenda and media appearances during the campaign were stuck in a conservative echo-chamber.” as is the dame.

    [1] "The Economic Public Interest in a World of Oligopoly"
    Abstract
    "The Australian economy has performed well compared with comparable countries over the last three decades only if we average the excellent performance in the 1990s and the poor performance over the past decade.

    "Real wages over the past decade have stagnated—to an extent without historical parallel.

    "We cannot understand the economy's underperformance without recognising the increasing claims of economic rents on national income.

    "Correction of weaknesses requires coordination of many policy instruments including measures to reduce the prevalence of rents (competition policy and regulation of oligopoly where competition is not feasible or inefficient) and changes in taxation arrangements to shift the burden of business taxation from firms in competitive activities to firms relying heavily on economic rents."
    ~ Ross Garnaut
    First published: 29 September 2023
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1759-3441.12403

    [2] "Renewable Energy Fit for a Superpower"
    "Australia’s energy transition is sick – but there is a cure."
    ...
    "The best cure in the national interest is a carbon price. Not by a little bit, but by a big margin. Unutilised large generation certificates (LGCs) from the RET would be credited at an appropriate carbon exchange rate against future carbon price liabilities. I will suggest dosages and means of application in this speech."
    ...
    https://www.superpowerinstitute.com.au/news/renewable-energy-fit-for-a-superpower

    Dame... set... Garnaut'd.

    ReplyDelete
  2. As I am person of very little imagination, Dame Groan has left me wondering - just why has she cited the tale of the Three Little Pigs? My best guess is that the story actually constitutes an argument in favour of well-constructed, sturdy, energy-efficient housing, which would presumably benefit from the sort of clear guidelines associated with a register of the sort that the Dame clearly abhors. Perhaps the answers will be revealed when we all gather ‘round the big economics roundtable for the next episode of “Story-time With Dame Slap”.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Interesting perspective from the Caterist this morning; “It’s all too much like hard work to establish a Palestinian State, none of these modern leaders are up to, so stuff that for an idea”.

      Delete
    2. Reptiles suffer from "The One-Way Street Fallacy: Considering only one possibility of a change that can go in either direction"

      "Don’t douthat, man! Please give this fallacy a name."
      Posted on December 20, 2013 10:10 AM by Andrew
      ...
      "It could be just as well be framed as a male gender gap in favor of the Republican party, but you don’t usually hear it that way.

      "Anyway, that’s the fallacy: a comparison could go either way, but people think about it only in one direction, thus not fully understanding the implications (in this case, thinking that a connection between daughters and Republican voting is good news for conservatives, because having sons is implicitly considered as the default case).

      "I can’t think of a good name for this fallacy. Can you?"
      https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2013/12/20/discovered-new-fallacy-now-need-name/

      Delete
    3. The cult can look to several weeks of extra groaning. All kinds of individuals and organisations are responding to Treasurer Chalmers’ request for ideas - such as John Quiggin drawing attention to air quality in buildings as a factor in productivity - that our Dame will have a plethora (panoply?) of poppies to choose from to decapitate with her cane.

      Not necessarily the tallest poppies; her instincts will lead her switch to those that are easiest to dispose of as ‘poorly thought through’ or ‘lacking in logic’, and other dismissive phrases, without any need on her part to offer comment drawing on her supposed field of study - economics. Oh - no more than her words for this day - “Market mechanisms should drive emissions reduction.”

      Might one or other business lobby give her a cue with a one-line submission “Leave everything to do with productivity with the market, while government concentrates on removing all controls or impediments to ‘the market’.”? Perhaps with a chainsaw emoji.? This h’mbl scribe doubts that such a submission might appear - his experience of business lobbies being that they recoil from open markets, as they explain to assorted bureaucrats how the national interest is served absolutely by favouring their particular circumstances.

      Oh - and market mechanisms driving emissions reduction? Now, where is that prospectus that the nice person was handing out at the agricultural show, offering our town the first of its modular reactors, by 2030, so savvy investors should get in for a piece of that action soonest. Just the thing for SMSFs. Or am I confusing that person with the lady telling school-agers that dinosaurs can still be found in African jungles. Unfeathered dinosaurs, that is.

      Y’r e’v’r h’m’bl does admit he cannot quite see the significance of the Three Little Pigs to the Dame’s words for this day. The mind stumbles when it recalls our electrical supply organisation converted our meter board to a ‘mart’ meter, just a few months back, as a standard modification to all its clients. But the electrons they supply come from coal, so - why do they need to be processed by a ‘smart’ meter?

      Delete
    4. Hehe... actually a good suggestion for reptiles...
      "Perhaps with a chainsaw emoji.?".
      Spot on Chadwick.

      Perhaps a Gelman fallacy emoji for... "The Horse: Keep beating it; it’s never really dead."

      Linked below

      Delete
  3. Democratic Genocide.
    Leading to "The end of US democracy"
    by John Q on JUNE 29, 2025
    https://crookedtimber.org/2025/06/29/the-end-of-us-democracy/

    "A genocide is under way – but not in Gaza"... in the Oval Office
    Energy wasted on luxury beliefs, such as the talk of recognising free & fair elections or a democratic genocide by executive orders of a Trumpian state, is diverting attention from the the real genocide going on in eastern Newscorpse.and "The executive branch is interfering in U.S. elections in unprecedented ways."*
    By Niald Herguson Columnist

    * "The Trump Administration’s Campaign to Undermine the Next Election"

    "The executive branch is interfering in U.S. elections in unprecedented ways.

    Jasleen Singh August 3, 2025

    "In 2020, 2022, and 2024, our nation held federal elections. Despite the pandemic, threats of violence, denial of results, and extraordinary pressure, these were secure and accurate. Election officials worked together across party lines. The system held.

    "This year, however, a new threat to free and fair elections has emerged: the federal government itself.

    "The Trump administration has launched a concerted drive to undermine American elections. These moves are unprecedented and in some cases illegal.
    ...
    https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/trump-administrations-campaign-undermine-next-election

    The important is rarely urgent.
    Yet now Democracy is both important, and under the Cantaloupe Caligula, urgent to defend.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Andrew Gelman says of the Caterist...
    "relative to the questions you’re asking, you won’t need to worry much about the prior; something vague will do."

    Count the Caterist as a man content to see mass starvation continue, and demonstrate The Australia Principle*...
    "Palestine, fragmented between Fatah in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza, has nothing vaguely resembling a single, unified and effective government"

    * "Prior distributions and the Australia principle"
    Posted on May 20, 2018 9:52 AM by Andrew

    "There’s an idea in philosophy called the Australia principle—I don’t know the original of this theory but here’s an example that turned up in a google search—that posits that Australia doesn’t exist; instead, they just build the parts that are needed when you visit: a little mock-up of the airport, a cityscape with a model of the Sydney Opera House in the background, some kangaroos, a bunch of desert in case you go into the outback, etc. The idea is that it would be ridiculously inefficient to build an entire continent and that it makes much more sense for them to just construct a sort of stage set for the few places you’ll ever go.

    "And this is the principle underlying the article, The prior can often only be understood in the context of the likelihood, by Dan Simpson, Mike Betancourt, and myself. The idea is that, for any given problem, for places in parameter space where the likelihood is strong, relative to the questions you’re asking, you won’t need to worry much about the prior; something vague will do. 
    ...
    https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2018/05/20/prior-distributions-australia-principle/

    The above 2 Andrew Gelman links are from the enlightening list...
    "Handy statistical lexicon"
    Posted on May 24, 2009 10:29 PM by Andrew
    ...
    - "The Horse: Keep beating it; it’s never really dead.
    - The 80% Power Lie: None of this should be a surprise.
    - The Causal Identification Kool-Aid: The attitude by which any statistically significant difference is considered to represent some true population effect, as long as it is associated with a randomized treatment assignment, instrumental variable analysis, or regression discontinuity.
    - Strongest-link Fallacy: The idea that a chain of reasoning is as strong as its strongest link.
    - Evidence and Truth: They’re different.
    - Assumptions and Rigor: You can’t have one without the other.
    - Deference Trap: Without meta-science, what we get caught in.
    - Looking for a needle in a pile of needles: They’re not looking for a needle in a haystack, they’re . . .
    ...
    https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2009/05/24/handy_statistic/

    Well worth a gander.

    ReplyDelete

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