In which the pond settles for standard Bromancer and Dame Groan offerings...

 

Many thought the new lion was indirectly attacking King Donald and his loyal minions, and perhaps Faux Noise, and maybe even that wretched alcohol-fuelled judge of his and theirs, suddenly elevated to government prime time ...

“We do not need loud, forceful communication, but rather communication that is capable of listening and of gathering the voices of the weak who have no voice,” the pontiff told about 1,000 international journalists gathered at the Vatican.
Speaking in Italian, he invited the audience to “disarm communication of all prejudice and resentment, fanaticism and even hatred.”
“Let us free it from aggression,” the 69-year-old continued. (archive link)

The pond always feels sad when the lizards of Oz are left out of this sort of calculation.

Don't they routinely shout at minorities, don't they aggressively stamp their feet, refuse to listen and carry on in a loud and forceful way, often aggressive and frequently sulking when they don't get their way?

Shouldn't the preaching pontiff's words also apply to the Catholic Boys' Daily, and bromancer lads calling everything nuts?

Never mind, perhaps the words had a dulling effect, because it was truly tedious day at reptile HQ ...

No chance of King Donald's big palatial plane making that cut, nor did any thoughts about the extravagant corruption of the King appear over on the extreme far right ...

What to do? The reptiles insisted that the bromancer was top of the extreme far right world, ma, and the pond must go with the flow ...

Sure, there was ancient Troy trying some kind of balancing act ...

Brutal factional power play tarnishes Labor’s victory

Anthony Albanese should have intervened to save both Ed Husic and Mark Dreyfus from factional execution.

By Troy Bramston

Senior Writer

The pond sometimes wonders if, or when, ancient Troy might do a Savva and do a bunk for greener pastures. Fancy quoting the French clock devotee ...

Keating was absolutely right last week when he lashed the caucus and criticised the “factional displacement” of Husic. Keating, favoured son of the NSW Labor Right, said Husic’s expulsion was a display of “contempt for the measured and centrist support provided by the broader Muslim community” to Labor at the election.
Husic was the cabinet’s only Muslim. Faction “lightweights” also removed the cabinet’s “most effective and significant Jewish member” in Dreyfus, which Keating said was in “poor judgment” and “unfairness”. The only reason, he noted, was “to keep up some notional proportional count between factions and elements of the Right of the party between states”.

Yes, yes ...

But the pond can't deviate and must do its duty ...

Spoiler alert, the bromancer will go to endless lengths to explain how dumping Husic had nothing to do with his views on Gaza or speaking out, and yet it's painfully obvious that the bromancer believes that these are splendidly correct reasons for dumping him.

Cue the header: Right call to dump Husic, wrong on Dreyfus, Mark Dreyfus is the most substantial lawyer and the last King’s Counsel in parliament. His loss from cabinet is a minor national tragedy. Ed Husic, on the other hand, was right to be dropped over his breaches in cabinet discipline.

Cue the caption: Former attorney-general Mark Dreyfus. Picture:The Australian / Nadir Kinani

Cue the magical incantation: This article contains features which are only available in the web version, Take me there

There are days when the bromancer is exceptionally tedious, as opposed to outright nutty, and this was one of them ...

The Albanese government was right to drop Ed Husic from cabinet, as Husic’s extraordinary interview on the ABC’s Insiders program on Sunday confirms, but it has made a terrible mistake getting rid of the last King’s Counsel, Mark Dreyfus, as attorney-general. Husic, as a politician who benefited prodigiously from the Labor faction system, is open to charges of hypocrisy in whingeing about the system when he loses.

But that’s just par for the course. What was extraordinary was Husic’s complaint that his outspokenness on Gaza while in cabinet was, in his view, a factor in his demotion.

You shouldn’t appoint minorities in politics, Husic argued, and then expect them to sit quiet in a corner. Presumably Husic, in claiming minority status for himself, was referencing his being a Muslim. There were times when Husic as a cabinet member went far beyond government policy on Gaza, as for example calling for sanctions against Israel. That was controversial at the time. There was reportedly serious tension between Husic and Foreign Minister Penny Wong. Yet the implications of Husic’s defence of his own lack of discipline are shocking, if not frankly sinister.

Frankly sinister? That's what noting mass starvation as a military tactic and a war crime is? That's what noting ethnic cleansing is?

It's been awhile since the pond has dropped in on Haaretz, but was struck by 'Depopulation,' 'Kill Zone,' and 'Second Nakba': The Lexicon of Brutality Exposes How Israelis Talk About the War, Adam Raz and Assaf Bondy, the editors of the new 'Lexicon of Brutality,' explain how language shapes the collective Israeli consciousness about the Palestinians – for the worse (archive link).

Inter alia:

...As the authors put it, as words lose their moral gravitas, it's more important than ever to observe how the Israeli discourse shapes the collective consciousness about the Palestinians. This shaping creates a violent reality that ties in directly to the 1948 Nakba, when more than 700,000 Arabs fled or were expelled from their homes during the War of Independence.

According to Raz and Bondy, the use of militaristic, aggressive and violent language not only minimizes the Palestinians' humanity, it shapes perceptions of reality and public behavior. Analysts, politicians and other people in key positions manipulate words and phrases and in the end control Israelis' thoughts and behavior.

It could be that if Fatma Hussein Areib's story were reported in the wider Israeli media today, it would be filtered through neutral phrases, hiding the tragedy. We would probably see anchorman Dany Cushmaro interviewing experts like retired general Giora Eiland, who would explain that "there are no uninvolved people in Gaza" and that the only solution is the "Generals' Plan," which champions the blocking of food supplies.

Military analyst Nir Dvori would read out "the IDF spokesperson's comment," telling how Israeli forces had taken the Philadelphi corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border, so people like Fatma had to evacuate to "humanitarian zones."

Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich would probably stress the need for "depopulation" and "voluntary emigration," noting that this was part of the "war goals." To him, as to most studio guests, Fatma and everyone in Gaza are an "existential threat," so "Gaza should be leveled" by "strategic bombing."

In "A Lexicon of Brutality," Raz and Bondy have compiled around 150 phrases including "no uninvolved people in Gaza," "starvation," "transfer" and "Nakba 2023" that have peppered the Israeli discourse during the war. We see these phrases in the work of journalists, researchers and human rights activists.

"We wanted to take these commonly used phrases, like the song 'Harbu Darbu,' and ask that readers stop for a moment and see what this phrase means, and how by normalizing it we're becoming a brutal society," says Bondy, a sociologist.

And near the end of the piece:

...The term "looting," also in "A Lexicon," isn't new either. This phenomenon happened in 1948, as described by Raz in his Hebrew-language book "Looting of Arab Property in the War of Independence." "In the lexicon we show that commanders allowed soldiers to loot. This is a combination of greed and revenge against Palestinians," he says.

"What's so surprising here is that in 1948 this was nothing to boast about. No opinion pieces came out in favor. But today, there are videos of soldiers looting that are almost pornographic. That is, they see it as something positive. They expect to earn cultural capital from their looting."

Some of the phrases are context-dependent. For example, the phrase "The IDF still has a lot of work to do" recalls Smotrich's remarks in 2021 when he addressed Arab lawmakers from the Knesset podium. "You are here by mistake," he said. "Ben-Gurion didn't get the job done and didn't throw you out in 1948."

Raz sees this as one link in a long chain. "Nothing is new here. When they talk about 'starvation,' Israel didn't begin depriving Palestinians of food just now. It has been counting calories for them for years, on both sides of the Green Line."

He backs his claims with documents from the early '50s, when Bedouin in the Negev were concentrated in a certain area after the War of Independence.

"This was done to take over fertile land and, in part, to control Palestinians' nutrition," Raz says. "You can't understand the current policy of starvation if you believe that it came out of nowhere. Israel has been blockading Gaza for many years."

He says that practices currently in use in Gaza such as "house burnings" and "kill zones" (phrases in "A Lexicon" ) are nothing new. The only difference is "in intensity, not the rationale. Israel has been controlling the movement of Palestinians and taking over their land since 1948."

Back to the bromancer, with a snap of the alleged villain, Former Labor cabinet minister Ed Husic on ABC Insiders. Picture: ABC

The bromancer was very keen to put Husic back in his box - the reptiles are very keen to ignore the ethnic cleansing that's going down:

In the Westminster system, cabinet ministers are bound by cabinet discipline. Cabinet ministers have the privilege of arguing, even voting, on government policy within cabinet, but once a policy is decided they have to abide by it publicly, though they can always argue within cabinet for it to be changed.

Thus, when Wong was a cabinet minister in Julia Gillard’s government, and the Gillard government at the time had a policy of opposing the legalisation of same-sex marriages, Wong had to abide by cabinet discipline, no matter how passionately she felt about the issue. The only other option would have been to resign from cabinet.

The implication in Husic’s bizarre argument is apparently that cabinet solidarity is OK for everyone else but should not apply to Muslims. This is an appalling position in principle and also deeply damaging to Australian Muslims because it implies that they should be held to a lower standard of political conduct than non-Muslims.

Similarly, Husic’s position also seems to imply that his views on Gaza were heavily influenced by his being Muslim.

I would never make those suggestions about any politician, linking any view they might hold to their religious or ethnic background. Husic, in his flailing tantrum, is himself bringing that slur against Australian Muslim politicians.

Husic’s defenders are also wildly over-estimating his very mixed, and at times eccentric, record as a minister. One of the most significant decisions he took was to cancel the previous government’s $1.2bn plan for Australia to build its own low Earth orbit satellites. We are one of the few countries of our size and wealth not to have our own satellites. The government cancelled similar military satellites. This is an essential piece of modern hi-tech architecture, with obvious military application, where the Albanese government just went missing. Having your own satellites is a kind of entry-level first step in a space industry, modern technology and national security.

The reptiles then stepped in with an AV distraction, Major changes await Anthony Albanese's second term as Prime Minister - here are the key names to know.

Having got rid of any talk of Gaza, it was time to celebrate the Dreyfus affair ...

Former attorney-general Dreyfus, as far as I know, never breached cabinet discipline. His loss from cabinet is a minor national tragedy, not because he’s a super genius or anything but because he is the most substantial lawyer and the last King’s Counsel in parliament. It is immensely beneficial to a government, and to a parliament, to have one, and preferably more than one, serious legal mind in its ranks.

There are a million reasons for this. One is so that governments, not just the public service, can consider deeply the interaction of laws and policies. Senior KCs, and before that QCs, have frequently in our history stood up within government deliberations, and within cabinet itself, for basic common law rights that may be unintentionally, or indeed intentionally, infringed by specific legislation.

The law, academically, is one of the few intellectual disciplines left, in the emaciated tradition of the humanities in the West, that self-consciously, routinely and rigorously goes back to first principles to throw light on contemporary issues. It’s one of the few disciplines that consciously seeks the wisdom of the past in its deliberations.

The modern parliament is full of law degrees but almost completely empty of serious lawyers. A modern law degree is like an arts degree 50 years ago, it’s just a standard, generalist university ticket. A KC normally gets that title after long practice at the bar. They can be relied on to have seriously internalised the deepest principles, and much of the operational consequence, of the law.

Here, the pond must apologise yet again. 

The pond's mission is to give a feel for reptile outings, and at this point the reptiles included a lengthy visual distraction, which must explain why they clocked the bromancer at five minutes, because without all the following nonsense, it was a very lightweight offering...

Just because the pond must include it, there's no reason to make it large ...

Fair crack of the whip, that entirely reduces any potential for comedy ...

Yet again a reptile wanders down memory lane with a listicle, with the bromancer indulging himself in his final gobbet..

Of course the academic study of the law has taken its own odd twists in recent years. But that again emphasises the value of an experienced KC who has operated in the real world.

Australian political history is full of KCs, formerly QCs, who have played central roles – Robert Menzies, Garfield Barwick, Percy Spender, HV Evatt, Gareth Evans, Daryl Williams, George Brandis and Dreyfus himself. Once, the very best KCs were keen to serve in parliament and national leadership as part of their civic contribution. Our culture has made that much less the case now.

Menzies apart, they seldom led governments. There’s something about being a KC that makes communication with ordinary people a bit difficult. Typically wordy, pedantic and a little pompous, almost none of the KCs (formerly QCs) could write a useable newspaper opinion piece. Indeed, Evans, brainy as he is, used to make Kevin Rudd look like Ernest Hemingway.

But none of that matters. It’s their deep legal expertise, their deep attachment to the principles of the common law, the sense in the whole community that they are people of accomplishment and substance, that made KCs so valuable to parliament and to government. Labor should have kept the last of the species in service.

Nothing could better illustrate the collapse of the standing of politics as a profession than that KCs now have not the slightest interest in joining its ranks.

We’re doing a lot to make politics less attractive to the best people. Liberal Keith Wolahan took a year off work to campaign for Menzies in 2022. He won narrowly, was a superb local member who made a national contribution, but suffered a heavy redistribution. He would have won on the old boundaries but lost narrowly on the new boundaries. You can’t really run for politics now without making a big personal financial commitment. That’s somewhat undemocratic.

Husic argued minority status should trump cabinet discipline. Dreyfus argued legislation should protect human rights and legal principles.

Funny really, when you recall the way that Dame Slap endlessly rants at lawyers...

And speaking of the best people, do the reptiles think that the beefy boofhead from down Goulburn way should run the coalition show?

Here the pond must concede another deficiency in its reptile coverage, another thought crime.

Ever since the election, Mein Gott has been on a bender, a real tear, endlessly ranting at the government clouds in the sky ...

Just look at this sampling of his headers ...

‘Thank you Jim’: Treasurer’s unfair tax delivered Goldstein seat to Liberals

Tim Wilson took advantage of Jim Chalmers’ horrific and unfair tax on unrealised gains to clinch the Goldstein seat, despite the Liberal Party’s hefty election losses around the country.

Labor’s election euphoria to end as unfair super policy hits home

The Albanese government’s re-election honeymoon will be over soon, with its controversial superannuation policy set to trigger billions in withdrawals. There are also Trump-related market dangers.

Election spendathon will come home to roost with seismic results

Forecast budget deficits and Albanese’s election spendathon will coalesce just as two other unstoppable forces hit, forcing every working Australian to re-examine their job.

Business blows coming down the ALP pipeline

Albanese’s big win heralds revolutionary changes to business and savings that amount to an unprecedented attack. The Coalition failed to highlight this and so deserves the ravaging in the polls.

And yet if the pond wants to get on board with all those savage blows and startling seismic shocks, Mein Gott hasn't been the first cab off the rank.

And instead, to rub salt in the Mein Gott wound, this day the pond turns to Dame Groan for a bog standard groaning which takes in most of the Gott carry-on ...

How is this fair? 

It isn't, it's simply that the pond's digestive system can only accommodate a few reptile rages and rants about super, taxation and the whole damn thing... Beware super tax grab as PM seeks to fund his childcare legacy, Anthony Albanese wants to be remembered as the prime minister who introduced universal childcare. The only problem is, how to pay for it when government debt is already at a record high?

The caption: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese reads to children at an early learning centre in Moonee Ponds, Melbourne. Picture: David Geraghty/NewsWire

The invocation: This article contains features which are only available in the web version, Take me there

Dame Groan starts by getting agitated about the children and feminist pals and all that stuff ...

Almost every prime minister seeks to leave a legacy. It’s clear Anthony Albanese wants his legacy to be universal childcare – where everyone with preschool children will be able to access childcare at a low, flat daily fee.

The facts that such an arrangement would be ruinously expensive, may not even be possible and will favour those parents in the top quartile of the earnings distribution don’t seem to concern him unduly. His close feminist pals are fully on board, and he is determined to deliver.

Childcare assistance is among the top 20 largest-spending programs. In the financial year, $16bn will be spent subsidising childcare fees. Fee subsidies are currently determined according to household income on a sliding scale up to a $533,000 limit. Any extension to a universal, flat-fee model would be extremely expensive.

The Productivity Commission estimates it would add another 60 per cent to the annual cost of childcare fee subsidies. By 2028-29, spending on childcare fee relief would be close to $30bn were the universal flat-fee arrangement to be in place. On the face of it, it looks like another NDIS in the making.

Then came a prime example of the AI getting the thumb image wrong as the reptiles offered up an AV distraction, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has pledged universal access to childcare and preschool for all children three days a week if re-elected. The plan removes work or study requirements for subsidies and includes a $1 billion investment to build 160 new childcare centres in high-need areas.

A deeply weird visual, while Dame Groan moves on to have the country bankrupt by the end of the week, certainly by the end of the month ...

In this context, it is worth recalling that in the March budget, a cumulative underlying deficit of over $150bn was forecast for the four years ending in 2028-29. (The figure for the cumulative headline deficit, which includes off-budget spending, was higher again, at $236bn.) The medium-term forecasts contained continuous budget deficits for a decade.

Of course, these annual losses must be covered by more government debt. By 2028-29, it is estimated government debt will be more than $1.2 trillion, or 37 per cent of GDP. Net debt will be about 23 per cent of GDP.

The ratings agencies begin to worry when government debt rises above the 30 per cent mark in a small open economy such as Australia’s. It will be net debt that is more important, but adding in the rapidly increasing state government debt and this trigger figure is quickly arrived at.

A plausible assumption will be made that the commonwealth would bail out any state government that got into financial trouble. The fact S&P warned the government (and the opposition) of its unfunded spending plans prior to the election was highly consequential.

In all likelihood, the re-elected Albanese government will seek to avoid the country losing its AAA rating and facing the unpalatable effects, including higher interest payments on the debt. The government will therefore only be able to proceed with the shift to universal flat-fee childcare by raising additional tax revenue.

Bearing in mind that all forms of taxation have negative economic consequences, the aim should be to impose taxes that raise revenue at the least economic cost. The principles that should govern the design are efficiency, equity and simplicity.

A common refrain is to broaden the base and lower the rate; exemptions, carveouts and special rules should be kept to a minimum. Moreover, the equity of a tax system should be judged as a whole, rather than by simply considering individual tax measures such as the GST.

There was another distraction, with tiny tots having way too many toys, suggesting it was time to call in King Donald, but relax, Dame Groan is on hand, The government will only be able to proceed with the shift to universal flat-fee childcare by increasing additional tax revenue.

Increasing additional tax revenue?

Now that's a nifty concept, and Dame Groan was all in on it ...

There are essentially three tax bases the government can consider for raising more revenue – income, consumption and wealth/savings. When it comes to taxing income – including company profits – there is some scope to raise more revenue through bracket creep.

It would be unlikely for the government to raise the rate of company tax because of the need to secure more business investment. Indeed, the pressure is on to reduce the rate although it’s equally hard to see Labor doing this.

When it comes to taxing consumption, the GST is the largest source of revenue. However, in relative terms, GST revenue has been falling, in part because of the various exemptions.

Note that all GST revenue is returned to the states and territories, so there is mainly political pain for the federal government in changing the rate or coverage of the GST without any revenue windfall. There is also the complication of the special deal with Western Australia.

The excises on petroleum and tobacco products are both reasonably large sources of revenue. But the shift to electric vehicles and the upsurge in the sale of illegal tobacco products mean these revenue sources are dwindling.

There had to be more taxes, and the captions helped out, A shift to electric vehicles means revenue from petroleum excises is dwindling. Picture: Dean Martin

An EV! And yet, boast how the EV mob will, EVs have struggled to get above the 1% of vehicle stock, and are no match for the road damage done by heavy vehicles.

Sorry, the pond digresses, back to Dame Groan channeling her inner Mein Gott super voice...

This then leaves wealth/savings. There is no doubt taxation of wealth/savings is a dog’s breakfast. Some forms of savings are taxed at an individual’s top marginal tax rate while other forms are concessionally taxed. The family home is exempt and there are no death duties. There is a strong case for streamlining taxation of wealth/savings bearing in mind economic growth requires strong incentives for wealth accumulation.

There is no indication the government has a comprehensive review in mind. Rather, it will pick off those forms of savings held by relatively wealthy individuals and seek to generate more tax revenue this way. Over time, these measures can be expanded to cover more individuals and thereby raise even more revenue to cover the government’s ambitious spending plans, including universal childcare.

This is where the stalled plan to levy a 30 per cent rate of tax on superannuation balances of more than $3m comes in, a dollar figure that would not be indexed. The key factor that has delayed this plan is the intention to tax unrealised capital gains as a means of operationalising the measure. This aspect of the new measure suits the Labor-aligned industry super funds, including the damage done to the self-managed superannuation sector.

See? No reason to do Mein Gott, when you have Dame Groan on hand to raise the spectre of Bernie, Taxing unrealised capital gains is part of Senator Bernie Sanders’ playbook in the US. Picture: AFP

The pond tried to pay attention to Dame Groan's chicken little routine, and did appreciate her attempt to portray the current government as a demonic force hurtling towards disaster, incapable of bowing to any kind of public pressure, despite past form skilfully imitating a brown paper bag full of water ... but eventually tuned out for the final gobbet of doom...

With the post-election configuration of parliament, it seems likely some form of this scheme will become law. The Greens have no problem with taxing unrealised capital gains – it is part of Bernie Sanders’ playbook – but want the cut-off point to be $2m.

It’s hard to find words to describe how appalling this proposal is, including the dangerous precedent it would set.

By failing to index the cut-off point, it will drag in more and more superannuation members over time. It will end up clashing with the indexed balance cap figure (this sets the dollar sum for tax-free pensions for superannuants), currently $2m. It has extraordinarily high compliance costs. It is also likely to exclude former parliamentarians and public servants enjoying generous defined benefit pensions. This will include Albanese in due course.

In 2016, the Coalition government introduced numerous changes to the superannuation system to raise more revenue. Over time, it has become clear the predictions of much higher tax revenue from superannuation have simply not come to pass. The same is likely this time, but further damage to the system of superannuation and to the economy is inevitable.

“Wrong way, turn back” is not advice the Albanese government is likely to follow. But there are other, less harmful ways of raising revenue and these should be pursued rather than taxing unrealised capital gains.

And yet somehow, unless the pond missed them, Dame Groan seemed reluctant to help out with those "other, less harmful ways" ...

The biggest regret?

In all that, the pond hasn't found the space to congratulate Little to be Proud of, and must use the immortal Rowe to do the job ...

And so to the final leg of the pond's travelogue and slide night, and a tip for travellers...

The humble army town of Singleton will soon experience a highway bypass, but the pond recommends turning off, heading through the town, and taking the Putty road to Sydney...

This means missing Maitland - the pond still has a porcelain family heirloom which allegedly survived the great flood of 1893 - and more to the point, Cessnock and the chance of some Hunter Valley wine tastings (best avoided if doing a long drive).

On the upside, the Putty Road, currently GUR, with much of the road looking very sorry for itself and being fixed, is a very pretty and attractive drive, especially the stretch with a creek running nearby ...

It's full of twists and turns, and you don't want to get stuck behind a caravan, but it's infinitely more relaxing than being surrounded by sociopaths on the Newcastle-Sydney freeway, or by trucks intent on dropping metal shards on the tar.

It's true you can still hear the twang of banjos around Putty and there are any number of fundamentalist Xian locations that pose a threat to the unwary traveller, but sometimes the road less travelled is the best one. 

The pond reveals this only because, having travelled the road for a very long time, the pond is now less likely to travel it again ...

When in Singleton, make sure to check out its internationally famous clock ...

There's a reward for dropping by ... a plaque with a biblical message, which says a lot about the state of things up that way...

Along the Putty road, you never know what you'll find, apart from a lot of burnt national park and rocks and views, a few farmers, the odd prepper and the aforementioned Xian refugees.

The time the pond drove past, the old half-way house was in a dismal condition - perhaps killed off by a rival down the road - but there was a music festival going down, with scruffy hippies and vulgar youffs wandering about and a gigantic robotic logo attached to the ruins, advertising the spot ...

The pond drove past as quickly as it could ...