In which Polonius is as usual the pond's Sunday seer, while the lizard Oz editorialist helps set the 2025 war in motion ...

 

The pond remains entranced by the state of things in the US, which has led to some splendid suggestions, Why Don’t the Tech Bros Just Hire from MAGA?, (paywall), and some splendid comparisons ...Before Crackpot RFKism There Was Crackpot Lysenkoism.

Better still, Uncle Leon has taken to monstering the Poms and the Germans, as recorded in Trolling the UK: the issues enraging Elon Musk, world's richest 'pub bore'.

Andrew Egger tried to make sense of it in The GOP's Twin Stars:

How does a conversation driven by Musk differ from one driven by Trump?
For starters, Trump is an online creator, but he isn’t much of an internet consumer. He cooks his brain the old-fashioned way, by mainlining the boob tube. He doesn’t even read articles on his phone; he has a lackey lug around a portable printer to keep him supplied with hard copies. And he rarely thinks about the world outside America beyond the degree it impacts himself.
Musk, by contrast, is a true power user/abuser of the internet, which means his attention span is cooked and his serial obsessions are wide-ranging and bizarre. Two weeks ago, there wasn’t a thing Musk cared about more than U.S. government spending. Today, as Republicans gear up to elect a speaker who will set their spending agenda, Musk is spending double-digit hours posting dozens of times about unprosecuted gang rape in northern England. (We’re sure Mike Johnson appreciates the absence of attention.)
This highlights another striking difference: Unlike Trump, Musk isn’t even putatively “America First” in any meaningful way. We’ve long joked about how American “nationalists” see other nations’ nationalists—rather than their own compatriots who disagree with them about politics—as their closest allies. But Musk has lately been taking this to new extremes. First it was his endorsement of Germany’s extreme AfD party. This week, it’s been his support for hard-right British figures like soccer hooligan turned anti-Muslim activist Tommy Robinson. Musk’s agenda isn’t national at all; he wants to ringlead a global populist movement.
What any of this means for our politics remains to be seen. But the “President Musk” stuff doesn’t seem to be going away anytime soon. Even if Trump tires of his schtick or starts to resent his place in the spotlight, Musk has his own massive megaphone and seemingly unlimited wealth. Going forward, the MAGA solar system orbits around two stars, each burning out in its own special way.

Sadly the reptiles at the lizard Oz aren't that keen on world affairs of late. Instead they seem super keen to stoke the fires of the 2025 domestic election war.

As a noble foot soldier in the cause, prattling Polonius was at the gates, preaching Don’t bet the rent on minority ALP government, The fact no first-term federal government has been defeated since 1931 is no guarantee the Albanese government will be returned with the support of the Greens. In politics, precedent means nothing.

That header seemed something of a mixed message, but the caption underneath the first header helped clarify Polonius's message ... Anthony Albanese faces an uncertain year, despite what the pundits are saying.

A pundit preaching about pundits, for just the right amount of post-ironic flavouring.

Frankly the pond hasn't the slightest interest in it all, not even the way that the reptiles keep on recycling images ...

And so on and on, as the tattered remnants of the graphics department at the lizard Oz flails and failes ... but never mind, it's Sunday, and Polonius traditionally has the floor, a bit like heading off to the Domain to hear Webster. Current speakers and hours uncertain.

BTW, the AGNSW seen in the b/g of that snap has dusted itself off and is well worth a visit ... the gallery has done some sensible rotations and comical juxtapositions of old and new, and has made an attempt to lift the amount of new works on display, as well as some oldies that amused the pond ...

Credit where credit is due ...

Eek, a Muslim Australian, what would the reptiles say?

Speaking of squatters, time to hear from the Sydney CBD squatter fond of repeating himself, and even fonder of boasting about how he loves to repeat himself ...

I am fond of writing words to the effect “as the saying goes it’s unwise to make predictions about the future”. A reader advises that the maxim has many parents but it’s probably a proverb of an unknown Dane translated into English.
Whatever the origin, it’s good advice – which, as the record demonstrates, is not always heeded – in the lead-up to the election to be held before the end of May.
On January 8, 2024, economist and former Labor Party minister Craig Emerson began his Australian Financial Review column by stating that “political pundits are predicting a poor year for the Albanese government, but circumstances, serendipity and strategy suggest a different story”.
While conceding that “some forces shaping Australian politics … are beyond our control”, Emerson concluded by stating that “with deft economic and political management, the Albanese government can end 2024 in a strong, election-winning position”.
The various opinion polls, including the authoritative News­poll, indicate that this is not the case. Moreover, a lack of serendipity cannot be blamed for the outcome.

It's always wise to repeat snaps of the enemy, and so Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Picture: Thomas Lisson interrupted the primordial bore:

That's guaranteed to send Polonius off and sure enough ... it's time for a potted Polonial history, as only he and our Henry can really do ...

Currently, some political soothsayers in our midst are predicting that the election will lead to a minority government, most likely headed by Labor. This was the apparent view expressed by the usually sensible election analyst Antony Green in an interview with ABC News Radio this week. Green may be correct. However, before engaging in suggestions, even of the vaguest kind, it is worth considering some guidelines.
In politics, precedent means nothing – unlike in the law. The fact no first-term Australian government has been defeated since 1931 – when the Joseph Lyons United Australia Party prevailed over Jim Scullin’s Labor government in a landslide – is irrelevant. For starters, this election occurred during the Depression. Moreover, there’s no Australian who voted in 1931 who is still alive.
The two-party system in Australia, which has prevailed since 1910, is not going anywhere. Not yet, anyway. After all, it is protected by Australia’s unique electoral system that combines compulsory and preferential voting. Major parties have faded or disappeared in Britain and Canada. But not in Australia or the US (as the 2024 election indicated) where different electoral systems prevail.
Independents are not invincible. It’s correct that independents who win seats from major parties are capable of serving long terms in the House of Representatives. This is partly because they are not close to government, or attempting to become part of a government, and have lots of time to spare attending local community events. Independents have been particularly successful in winning seats from the Coalition. But not all continued in politics.
In 2010, NSW independents Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott (both of whom had backgrounds in the Nationals) supported Labor prime minister Julia Gillard to form a minority government. Neither stood again in the 2013 election when the Coalition under Tony Abbott won both seats in a landslide victory.
In 2022, the teal independents won six seats from the Liberal Party: Curtin in Western Australia; Goldstein and Kooyong in Victoria; and Mackellar, Wentworth and North Sydney in NSW.
All except Wentworth are on relatively small margins and all seats were won on Labor and/or Greens preferences. To the extent that Anthony Albanese and his government are unpopular, some teals will be subjected to Peter Dutton’s line that a vote for the teals is a vote for Labor.

At this point, with the pond wondering if the reptiles had paid Clive hard cash for the use of the pending patented "teal", cue a snap of the hero Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. Picture: Roy VanDerVegt/ NewsWire

Phew, each time the pond sees a snap of that former Queensland plod, the pond blanches ... it always seems an ominous portending of things to come, or of things that have already been ...

Never mind, a prognosticating Polonius helps keep Sunday a sleepy affair ...

The Greens political party and a Muslim political party are unlikely to inherit the Australian political earth – in the short term, at least. Despite much attention in large sections of the mainstream media, the Greens, under Adam Bandt’s leadership, are not making significant gains.
Indeed, a recent Resolve poll in Nine newspapers suggests that some younger voters have moved their support away from the Greens and towards Labor and the Coalition in recent months.
The Opposition Leader has called on the Prime Minister to demonstrate his opposition to anti-Semitism “flourishing within the Greens political party” and put the Greens last on Labor’s how-to-vote cards. Albanese has not reciprocated. Yet, in the long term, the Greens are a greater threat to Labor than the Coalition.
Obviously, not all Australian Muslims hold the same political views. Most vote Labor. But some support the Coalition. Even if all Muslims voted for a Muslim political party there would not be enough voters to elect a Muslim political party MP in western Sydney. As mentioned, the Coalition is likely to put Labor ahead of the Greens and/or a Muslim party in western Sydney seats such as Blaxland, McMahon and Watson.
In view of this, it is unlikely that Labor will lose seats to the Greens or a Muslim party in its safest Sydney seats.
Popularity does not matter all the time. As I have argued consistently, the four Liberals who led their party to victory from opposition were not popular. And all were politically conservative at the time. The reference is to Robert Menzies (1949), Malcolm Fraser (1975), John Howard (1996) and Abbott (2013).
As is widely known, at times of economic stress more voters in democracies are personally focused on the economy. The Albanese government’s particular problem does not merely focus on inflation and interest rates.
As research undertaken for Liberal senator Dean Smith by the Commonwealth Parliamentary Library reveals, costs for basic products such as insurance, gas, eggs, tobacco and vehicle spare parts have increased by more than 20 per cent between March 2022 and the September 2024 financial quarter. This is well above the underlying rate of inflation.

Oh no, not the eggies thingie goes down under...

As for the cost of insurance, is it possible to mention the unmentionable, that which shall go nameless in reptile circles?

And so to the final Polonial word ...

The task of the Albanese government is to convince voters that their economic lot will improve. It’s a difficult but not impossible task. Something that is clearly not understood by The Economist. After all, its coverage of Australia in its The World Ahead Report 2025 states that “given disarray in the conservative opposition, the government is set to win a new term in the lower house elections”.
There is no evidence that the Coalition is in disarray. And no certainty that the Albanese government will be returned with the support of the Greens and independents.
Making predictions about the future invariably carries with it the potential for reputational damage.

There you have it, and those who fancy a chuckle at Polonius imagining he has a reputation that might suffer reputational damage from daring to put a predictive toe in the war can start the jaffas rolling down the aisles ...

Meanwhile, as noted yesterday, the reptiles are intent on bringing the war on, and the sooner the better ...

Really reptiles? Can there be no peace in sacred January, when tradies plan their strategy to buy an even more offensive-looking truck with which to litter Sydney streets, while lolling on the beach in the sun ...

On the upside, there's a short way of catching up on the war, and that's to revert to the lizard Oz editorialist ... as in Dutton’s counter-revolution to win back the battlers, Peter Dutton has set his sights on the basics, promising to restore the good economic management and conservative social policy approach of John Howard and Peter Costello.

You might have thought he'd promised to nuke the country to save the planet, but the reptiles weren't convinced and had other fish to fry ... it's the basics, dude, the basics ...

The battleground for the coming federal election is starting to take shape. Anthony Albanese says sticking with Labor represents a vote for the future. Peter Dutton has set his sights on the basics, promising to restore the good economic management and conservative social policy approach of John Howard and Peter Costello. As the perception of a golden era under the Howard-Costello team is burnished in the face of the current harsh economic times, both have stepped up their public interventions as the Albanese government’s fortunes have waned.

Yep, the reptile campaign is starting to take shape. Roll out incessant stories featuring the lying rodent and Petey boy, burnishing their legacy, and never mind that unfortunate spectacle of a PM losing his seat, tossed out on his ragged bum ...

Suddenly it's the golden era, a golden era to rival the golden era of Ming the Merciless, a golden era beloved of nashos sent off to smash the Commie domino swine with splendid success ...

This week Mr Howard and Mr Costello criticised the Albanese government’s financial management, arguing the failure to arrest spending had put upward pressure on inflation and interest rates, worsening cost of living, while the economy had lost competitiveness and productivity was in decline. Jim Chalmers is promising that things will get better. But voters need more than promises. Both sides of politics have a lot of work to do between now and the election to explain exactly in detail what they intend to do. For the Opposition Leader, economic reform will not take care of itself; just as the Prime Minister’s promise of exciting new times ahead does not automatically translate into a better standard of living for middle Australia.

Better yet, pose deeply philosophical questions as only simplistic - here no conflict of interest, no conflict of interest here - Simon can do ... 

As political editor Simon Benson writes on Saturday, the next election is a tournament of deep philosophical dispute that goes to the purpose of government itself. The Albanese government’s first term has increased the footprint of government dramatically through wage subsidies for low-paid care economy jobs and vastly expanded the reach of the public sector. It has sought to tackle cost-of-living pressures through government handouts for electricity and childcare that have made the challenge of cutting inflation only more difficult for the Reserve Bank. The Albanese government has intervened further by revising the architecture of key economic institutions including the Reserve Bank and Productivity Commission. It has undertaken a bold experiment in reforming the nation’s energy system in a renewables-only approach; tested the boundaries on cultural reform with the voice referendum, and; been prepared to turn a deaf ear to concerns from the nation’s economic foundations of small business, where insolvencies are growing, big business, which has been hit with an unexpected overhaul of workplace laws that favour trade unions, and energy exporters, who have found themselves on the wrong side of the progressive climate change crusade.

Throw nattering "Ned" into the mix ...

Out of this, the Coalition has identified electoral opportunity in what it believes is a middle-class counter-revolution. Mr Dutton is working hard to prove the doubters wrong. And, as editor-at-large Paul Kelly has written, Labor again may have miscalculated the electoral appeal of another tough, conservative opposition leader as it did with Mr Howard and Tony Abbott, who managed to win the Treasury benches from Paul Keating and Kevin Rudd, respectively. Labor’s belief that Mr Dutton would be unelectable looks shaky given the latest Newspoll trends that show the 35-49-year-old voting demographic has turned sharply against Labor across the past six months. This is the same group that elected Scott Morrison in 2019, swung against him in 2022 and is now showing signs of deep displeasure with Mr Albanese.

Diss on Albo and celebrate the mutton Dutton ...

Mr Albanese’s loss of support proves the point that the business of government is more difficult than simply being a nice bloke. The enduring lesson is that voters will respond to strong leadership. Mr Dutton’s middle-class, counter-revolution strategy is designed to outflank Labor in the suburbs where Mr Howard won aspirational voters from Labor. Where Mr Albanese is asking voters to stick with the status quo, Mr Dutton is citing a sliding-doors moment in which the nation has a chance to dodge a bullet of three more years of Labor rule.

Attempt a little both siderism as a way of purporting and pretending to be neutral observers in the game ...  while sharpening fangs and claws ...

The challenge for both sides is to explain clearly what policies they have to deal with the fundamental problems that now beset the federal budget. By offering more of the same, Labor is putting its faith in the fact that bigger tax receipts from bracket creep will deal with the drag of increased government spending and higher debt payments. Voters ultimately are likely to lose patience with that approach. The Coalition is promising a return to budget discipline. This should include pegging government spending to a set proportion of GDP, as it was previously. Labor’s attack on Mr Dutton is that he will take things back to the future. On many of today’s cultural fancies that would be no bad thing. It also should be remembered that good economic management that gives incentive and rewards effort never goes out of style.

Yes, back to the 1950s and the picket fence, and what could possibly go wrong?

And there you have it, a reptile campaign strategy without a single mention of "nuclear"or the need to nuke the country to save the planet ... 

Forget the big spend on the nukes, just blather on about good old economic management of the lying rodent, Petey boy kind ... 

You know, A cost-of-living election: Howard ministers agreed to $4bn in last-minute spending in 2004, Cabinet papers released on 1 January show senior ministers signed off on funding the day parliament was dissolved before the October 2004 election

Yep, sound economic management, aka a boondoggle, pork-barrelling, back scratching, logrolling, payola, and perquisites and perks ... as in ...

The day parliament was dissolved for the 2004 federal election, senior Howard government ministers met to authorise almost $4bn in sweeteners to announce during the election campaign.

A cabinet minute from 31 August 2004 records that three of the biggest spending promises Howard announced in the five ensuing weeks were signed off at that meeting in the government’s final hours.

Released by the National Archives on 1 January, the records of cabinet’s deliberations throughout 2004 show Howard and his colleagues were acutely conscious of the politics of their decisions as they prepared to seek re-election.

In that 11th-hour meeting, a pared-down cabinet of unnamed “senior ministers” allocated more than $1.7bn to increase the Medicare rebate for all GP visits from 85% to 100%, to take effect from the following January. They spent another $1bn for a new tax rebate of up to $500 for mature-age workers – backdated to 1 July – and $83m increasing the rebate for local medical services to veterans from 100% to 115% of the schedule fee. That was on top of a veterans’ access payment which Howard had authorised the day before.

The previous day, cabinet’s national security committee had directed that legislation be drafted to implement the recommendations of a recently completed national intelligence review and authorised millions of dollars in extra funding for agencies.

There's others in that series, try Australia kept quiet about early deployment of forces ahead of Iraq war, cabinet papers show and Curbs on transgender rights were proposed for Australia’s 2004 Marriage Act, cabinet papers show, before an extreme case of Golden Age nausea sets in ...

Meanwhile, on with the new year in all its promise ...

And finally, speaking of the Streisand Bezos effect, Ann Telnaes on Why I'm quitting the Washington Post... as they say, “Democracy dies in darkness” (or in the hands of billionaire oligarchs) ...