In which a gloomy bromancer tries to cope, and cultists should be appeased by a Dame Groan sighting ...

 

The pond's partner has a thing for JD, and while the pond tries to argue against it, the arguments in favour of the couch molester are hard to refute.

JD visits the pope, who promptly dies, and a new liberal - or at least King Donald incurious - pope is installed. A real win for a Catholic convert anxious to see the church get ahead.

JD flies off to Hungary to support Viktor Orbán. He loses, so JC can take credit for saving Europe. What a winner.

JD heads off to the middle east to lead the negotiations, and produces an incredible negotiated settlement that sees both sides blockade the strait, plunging the world into chaos. So much winning.

Is it any wonder that couches want to lie with him, so that their beastly cushions can do the two backs thingie with him?

Others think he deserves our deepest thanks ...

But in the rush to praise JD for his legendary work, let's not forget that each day there's the same sort of incredible winning on display by the reptiles parading in the lizard Oz ...

Come on down bromancer, do the winning thingie for News Corpse and Faux Noise ...

The header: Iran knows it has Donald Trump politically snookered; This will probably be for Trump as damaging as the withdrawal from Kabul was for Joe Biden, possibly much worse.

The caption for the demented mad King: President Donald Trump speaks with reporters at Joint Base Andrews. Picture: Julia Demaree Nikhinson / AP Photo

Watching the bromancer spend a bigly four minutes or so trying to cope with the doings of the mad King has become a peculiar pleasure for the pond of late.

Sure, the world is going to hell in a handbasket, in no small part due to the role played by the bro's kissing cousins at Faux Noise and to American-owned News Corp, but you must take your pleasures where you find them...

See how he struggles to discern some kind of sanity, marvel at the way he decodes the entrails ...

Australians should prepare for severe disruption for months, for shortages of fuel and other essentials, and the strong chance of recession, as a result of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.
The military logic of what’s unfolding in the strait offers no reason to imagine a return to normal soon. Things will certainly get worse before they get better. They may get much, much worse.
One security insider put it to me this way: “The law of diminishing returns now applies to Trump. He wants to get out as quickly as possible. The law of increasing returns applies to Iran. It wants to keep using its new leverage.”
The case for taking action against Iran was very strong, because of its nuclear, ballistic missile, proxy and terrorist capabilities.
However, the way the Trump administration has handled this has in many ways played into Iran’s long-term strategic strengths. Mike Pezzullo argues that Trump should have involved allies much earlier. Failing to prepare de-mining capabilities or to get allies to help Gulf Arab states in counter-drone defences betrays poor planning.
The Americans say peace talks with Iran failed because they couldn’t get sufficient reassurance on nuclear enrichment. I think that’s misleading. The key today is Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz.

The disgraced Pezzullo still being quoted as a reliable expert? 

Only in bromancer land, as the reptiles featured that heroic winner, Vice President JD Vance speaks during a news conference in Islamabad. Picture: Jacquelyn Martin / AP Photo

On and on the bromancer rambled, with the possibility that China might be dragged into proceedings surely a cause for celebration, because at last he might get his much desired war with China well before Xmas ...

Washington has achieved degradation of Iranian military capabilities. But Iran uses drones, sea mines, missiles and even artillery to make the Strait of Hormuz impassable without its permission. If the US walks away leaving Iran controlling who gets through the strait, and charging each ship a toll, that’s a massive defeat.
Here’s a weird thing. Until now the US has allowed Iran to keep trading its own oil on shadow fleets. Because of the spike in oil prices, this meant Iran was making twice as much money from its oil as it was before the war.
The US blockade is designed to cut all that money off and therefore make it harder for Tehran to keep on resisting. This will in the short term remove more oil from the international system.
It’s unclear how the US will enforce the blockade. Presumably it won’t actually sink any oil tanker that refuses its order to stop and be inspected. Instead it would have to board such a ship with US Navy SEALs and the like, then determine whether the ship’s cargo carried was loaded in Iran, then take custody of the ship or turn it back.
Iran has been allowing ships from friendly nations such as China to get through. Will the US enforce its blockade against Chinese ships, or ships with other nations’ flags carrying oil for China?

On the basis that you can never have enough bro, the reptiles introduced an AV distraction featuring him blathering to petulant Peta in his usual gloomy way, and luckily the pond could reduce it to an indicative screen cap ... The Australian Foreign Editor Greg Sheridan says if the Iranians control the Strait of Hormuz, they have “won an enormous victory”. “They have withstood the worst that Trump can give, and they haven’t buckled,” Mr Sheridan told Sky News host Peta Credlin. “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard is still in control in Iran. “That is a big victory.”

What a defeatist, as the bromancer kept showing signs of blinking ...

Here is where my friend’s laws of diminishing returns for the US and increasing returns for Iran come in. Iranians can read US poll numbers. This is an exceptionally unpopular war with the American public, about one-third of whom support it. Trump’s statements have swung wildly throughout the war, creating much confusion and ill will. He alternates between trying to influence oil and stock markets by telling them the war is almost over, virtually over, about to be over. He follows with wild threats to destroy Iranian civilisation or attack every Iranian electricity plant etc.
The Iranians aren’t scared by these threats. They know Trump can’t, politically, carry them out. They interpret them as signs of Trump’s frustration, even some political desperation. All this gives Iranian policymakers an incentive to try to wait Trump out, confident that domestic US politics will force him to quit before he opens the strait. Alternatively, the Iranians believe that to get agreement on the strait, Trump could make huge concessions to them that he would try to disguise in presentation.
This will probably be for Trump as damaging as the withdrawal from Kabul was for Joe Biden, possibly much worse.
What about Australia? The three factors that will help us avoid technical recession are the huge rise in commodity prices (as usual, the Green-demonised mining industry could save us), immigration, which tends to make the overall economy bigger, and inflation.
But there’s every chance we’ll get inflation combined with massive disruption because of the energy crisis. That’s inflation plus recession – stagflation. In such circumstances the Albanese government will spend wildly, at home to cushion recession, abroad to bid for scarce resources.
Dangerous paths of escalation for this conflict are obvious, though not inevitable. If the Americans are serious about opening the strait against Iranian opposition they probably need to occupy a number of Iranian islands. That means renewed war, boots on the ground and probably US casualties.

Glorious days, as the reptiles tried to distract with a snap of other news, Anthony Albanese and Richard Marles announce senior leadership changes within the Australian Defence Force at Parliament House. The government has appointed Vice Admiral Mark Hammond as the Chief of the Defence Force. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Then there came a final plunge into bromancer gloomsville...

Iran would respond by attacking Gulf nations’ energy infrastructure. It may be able to get its Houthi clients to attack energy shipping in the Red Sea, meaning even bigger disruption.
Incoming chief of the defence force Mark Hammond claimed Australia could send our navy to the Strait of Hormuz if asked. Hammond is a distinguished, capable and honourable man who would never knowingly lie. His statement is technically true but substantially meaningless.
Our seven Anzac frigates are among the world’s least capable warships. They are old and have just eight vertical launch cells each. You could fit them with limited extra counter-drone systems but we have no serious capabilities in that area.
Of course, within a US air and sea defence bubble, even an Anzac frigate could survive. If the Americans protect civilian vessels, they will survive too. That’s the point of such operations. Our frigate couldn’t reliably defend itself. The Albanese government decided not to upgrade Anzac frigate capabilities. We could send an air warfare destroyer, of which we have just two in service, as a marginal contribution. You have to see Hammond’s comments as part of official propaganda to convince Australians we have a much more capable defence force than we really do.
The US is now retrofitting solutions to problems it should have anticipated. We have almost no influence in all this and are doing not much to prepare for an increasingly dangerous future.

Say what? Isn't AUKUS going to save us?

Maybe not ... (*intermittent archive link)

No wonder he's gloomy, but perhaps that's because he missed the story about mad King Donald the redeemer, which is pretty much everywhere, but which also appeared early in the morning in the lizard Oz just below the bromancer's piece ... though no reptile could be found to attach his name to it, and it was left to agencies...

Donald Trump deletes Jesus post of himself after outcry
Even among conservative-leaning bishops, there was dismay over the President’s unprecedented assault on Pope Leo and his Truth Social post. Trump heard them.
By AFP and AP

The nub of it was that photo ... how could the pond resist a dose of sacrilege and blasphemy early in the morning?

The likes of Marge took a view ...

Apparently many are asking these days if He's the Antichrist (Wired link), and it's on for young and old ...

But the explanation was perfectly reasonable and sensible, at least for anyone in their dotage ...

Asked about the post, Mr Trump denied that he was trying to look like Jesus Christ. “I did post it, and I thought it was me as a doctor and had to do Red Cross,” he told journalists. “It’s supposed to be me as a doctor, making people better. And I do make people better. I make people a lot better.”

Talk about senility in plain sight ...

It isn't easy for local reptiles to match that level of comedy, and Geoff, as he chambered a round for the beefy boofhead from down Goulburn way, didn't even try ...

Taylor learns from Dutton errors
Angus Taylor has released the Coalition’s first immigration policy phase, learning from Peter Dutton’s past mistakes while targeting One Nation voters with detailed measures.
By Geoff Chambers
Political editor

The pond decided that a teaser trailer would do, with the intermittent archive hopefully doing the rest ...

Why do the reptiles think they're helping when they start with a snap of prime Angus grinning inanely and looking sunstruck, like a prize loon cherry red tomato in a hothouse?

So long ago, the days when talk of migrants eating cats and dogs was an election winner.

The pond didn't even bother to offer a teaser trailer for Jennings of the fifth form, delivering a standard whine ...

New ADF leaders, but no extra money
Australia’s military has appointed new leaders to senior positions, yet they inherit an under-resourced Defence Force struggling with rapidly escalating regional security threats.
By Peter Jennings

Come now, Jennings of the fifth form, surely putting a woman in charge of something is the real problem. Why, Pete Kegsbreath wouldn't stand for it ...

But at least that clearing of the reptile deck allowed space for Dame Groan's Tuesday outing.

It too was a standard whine, but the pond must pay attention to her cult following and their insatiable lust for hanging on every one of her words ...

The header: National fuel gauge is on empty – and no one is refilling; The government needs to take note as the global energy market, particularly for liquid fuels, is transformed, possibly forever.

The caption? Sadly there was no caption but that's possibly because everyone knew who he was ... Satan's little helper.

In fact Satan's little helper had probably set Dame Groan off ...

In this oil crisis, no one is calling for more fossil fuels: Bowen
Chris Bowen made the declaration as he leads the response to the fuel shock while balancing his duties as president of the COP31 UN summit.
By Rosie Lewis

Outrageous.

No one is calling for more fossil fuels?

Hold Dame Groan's beer ...

I have had my petrol car for some time. It is just fine apart from one minor defect. The fuel gauge moves from quarter to empty in the blink of an eye. I have learnt to deal with this by filling up the tank when the quarter mark approaches. It’s just a pity the federal government hasn’t adopted this cautious approach when it comes to the supply of liquid fuels – petrol, diesel, aviation fuel – that the country holds.
It came as a shock to many people that the country’s reserves of these critical fuels are around 30 days, a third of the level recommended by the International Energy Agency. We are at the bottom of the pack among advanced economies.
Even our cousins over the ditch have more than 50 days of reserve fuel. Italy has 90, France has 108 and Japan has 250 days.
There’s no need to rush out to fill up the tank if there are 200 days in reserve; 30 days is a different matter. It is not surprising therefore that the increase in the retail price of fuel has been higher in countries with relatively low reserves, leaving aside the impact of excise adjustment.
Successive governments have known about this problem for years but have dithered. Senator Jim Molan had loudly belled the cat on the issue. There was an earlier important report written by John Blackburn for the NRMA alerting us to the problem of our inadequate fuel reserves.
One option is to set up a government company that would purchase fuel reserves over several years to meet the IEA standard of 90 days. There would be a need for more storage, but over time this problem could be sorted.

It was everything her cult following expected, neigh demanded, and the next snap was also sure to send her off the deep end ... Anthony Albanese addresses the media at Parliament House. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Dame Groan offered an incredible solution ...

To be sure, the fuels couldn’t just be left in the tanks – the quality deteriorates – but this turnover also could be sorted. In the short term, we could store some fuel reserves with allies – an example of “friendshoring”.
There would be a cost to the taxpayer – perhaps as much as $20bn a year initially – but the reserves would sit as an asset in the books of the government company. An additional excise on fuel – say 10c a litre – could defray some of these costs, including for storage. Over time, it’s not clear that motorists would notice.

"Friendshoring"?

 Hadn't that been tried with the US?

Oh dear, another beefy boofhead triumph, at least until we discovered that the friend had fallen under the baleful rule of a demented mad King ...

Perhaps Dame Groan was thinking of New Zealand? Or at a pinch Tasmania?

Apparently this talk of "friendshoring" is completely wrong in reptile la la land if it happens to involve people of the wrong skin colour.

But do carry on ...

A contribution also would be expected from those operators currently in receipt of the diesel fuel rebate because the revenue would be used to add to reserves that would benefit them as well.
A similar contribution would be expected from the aviation indus­try.
An ideal outcome would be if the addition to the national supplies of fuel could be sourced locally. But over the past two decades the proportion of liquid fuels from domestic wells has fallen sharply.
The almost complete absence of exploration and new developments has ensured this outcome as well as the closure of most of our refineries.
The broader context of this trend is the hostility to fossil fuel developments on the part of both the federal and state governments. Driven by an obsession with net zero and meeting arbitrary emissions reduction targets, potential investments in fossil fuel-based developments have fled the country.
It’s not as though our consumption of liquid fuels has fallen; we have simply exported the associated emissions to the countries from which we import the fuels, both crude and refined.
A crossroad has now been reached. There is broad recognition of the inadequacy of our liquid fuel reserves and the consequences that potential shortages and higher prices are having well beyond servo bowsers.

It couldn't be fully fossilised foolishness about fossil fuels without an appearance by fossil Jimbo, and so it came to pass ... Jim Molan

Of late it seems that the pond should spend some time introducing the dramatis personae to be found in reptile texts.

Come on down Vaclav Smil ...alleged "noted environmental scientist" ...

Ok, Doomer: What Vaclav Smil and the disinformation echo chamber get wrong about the climate crisis

After reading the fawning coverage of Vaclav Smil’s 41st, and hopefully final, book How the World Really Works (2022) — the latest edition of an old white dude mansplaining to future generations why a just, sustainable society is impossible — I got riled up and started to write a detailed rebuttal. There are so many problems with Smil’s book.. and the man himself.
A Professor Emeritus of Geography (retired) at the University of Manitoba, Smil is sort of the high priest of naysaying, who has a long history with the American Enterprise Institute, a libertarian think tank that has received millions of dollars from fossil fuel interests, including oil giant ExxonMobil. He is the master of a particular form of climate denial that I call climate action denial.
He doesn’t believe a world powered by 100% clean, renewable energy is feasible, and he has published literature sowing doubt about the significance of human-caused climate change. Unsurprisingly, he thinks fracking is awesome and that the public is far too worried about the risks posed by extractive industries. He characterized the idea of transitioning to electric vehicles as a “myth” and sustainability in general as a “laugh.”

And so on and on, and he sounds perfect for a walk-on role.

It's unlikely that Central Casting could have found anyone better suited to Dame Groan's needs ...

The impact is hitting agriculture, particularly in terms of diesel and urea availability and prices, mining, construction, healthcare as well as what’s left of manufacturing. There are still true believers who regard recent events as a signal to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and push for higher rates of electrification, particularly of road transport.
But note here that road transport accounts for less than 20 per cent of total emissions.
We are still a long way off long-haul trucks converting to battery power at any scale and the costs of the conversion are extremely high. In the short to medium term, excavators, cranes, bulldozers, tractors, combine harvesters, irrigation pumps, marine equipment and the like are overwhelmingly powered by diesel.
It is worth noting here the finding of Vaclav Smil, the noted environmental scientist, that there are currently no practical and cost-effective alternatives to fossil fuel for primary iron, cement, ammonia (fertilisers) and plastics.
According to Smil’s calculation, the best we can expect from electrification is a decline in emissions of between 20 and 25 per cent. The recent demise of the green hydrogen dream as a zero-emissions liquid fuel has reinforced his conclusion.
It is alarming our political leaders are failing to comprehend the magnitude of the threat to our economy and way of life of our low fuel reserves. The Prime Minister has announced that “Singapore is a major supplier of fuel to Australia”, without realising that a great deal of the fuel that Singapore refines is sourced through the Strait of Hormuz.

At  this point, the reptiles decided to crank up the volume by inserting an AV distraction featuring the mad King, who also serves these days as climate science denialist in chief, doing more to wreck the world than a hundred Groanings could manage ...

US President Donald Trump has vowed to end Iran’s “world extortion” in the Strait of Hormuz. He accused Tehran of exploiting global oil routes by demanding tolls from passing tankers. Trump warned that the US would take decisive action to reopen the critical shipping lane. “THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted,” Trump wrote to Truth Social. The threat came after peace talks collapsed following 21 hours of negotiations.

And so at last to the final bleat, with nuking the country and coal also ready for walk-on roles, with special thanks to the mad King...

The Treasurer has been prattling on about the need for “cleaner and cheaper energy, more diverse sources and more reliable and robust supply chains”. Apart from the possibility of adding biofuels to our reserves it’s not even clear what he is talking about.
In muted terms, the Productivity Commission had warned the government about some of these problems, finding that “the main supply chain risks lie in the use of vulnerable chemical imports in health (human medicine manufacturing), energy (petrol and coal product refining) and water treatment industries”. It was just easier to ignore the warning.
The leaders of several countries are now explicitly declaring the primacy of energy security over other objectives. Japan is returning to nuclear power; Germany is prolonging the life of coal-fired electricity plants and is considering the reintroduction of nuclear; and the EU is walking away from rigid adherence to climate neutrality. The US, of course, has ditched its commitment to net zero and has exited the Paris Agreement.
The Australian government needs to take note of these developments as the global energy market, particularly for liquid fuels, is transformed, possibly forever.

Finally, the pond couldn't resist a gloat after spotting this in The Graudian ... 

Tony Abbott labels Viktor Orbán ‘Trump with brains’ as future of Budapest thinktank linked to former PM in doubt
Former Australian PM, who has been associated with pro-Orbán Danube Institute since 2023, praises ousted Hungarian leader

What a deeply corrupt man he is, selling his narcissistic preening soul for a mess of authoritarian pottage...

Tony Abbott has likened Viktor Orbán to “[Donald] Trump with brains” and labelled him Hungary’s “greatest modern leader”, as the future of his work for the ousted leader’s pet thinktank hangs in the balance.
Orbán’s 16-year grip on power in Hungary has ended after the rightwing populist leader conceded his Fidesz party had lost to the opposition Tisza party led by Péter Magyar, which won at least 138 of the 199 seats in the country’s parliament.
Abbott has been connected to the conservative Danube Institute as a senior visiting fellow since 2023, according to Australia’s foreign influence transparency scheme. Orbán’s ousting puts the future of pro-Fidesz thinktanks like the Danube Institute, which rely heavily on his former government’s funding, in doubt.
Abbott, Australia’s 28th prime minister, praised Orbán on social media for making Budapest “something of a haven for conservative intellectuals”, saying he did not “expect the new government will want that to change”.
“The economy has strengthened, the city of Budapest has been transformed, and Hungary’s family policies and determination to keep its culture have been studied around the world,” Abbott said.
“[Orbán] and I differed on Ukraine but I thought he was dead right to defy the EU, on illegal immigration especially. Why should a sovereign nation be bullied by Brussels into policies that would jeopardise its future as a distinct people?”

If the new Hungarian government has a whit or jot of sense they'll kick this craven lickspittle and fellow traveller out so fast his budgie smugglers will be forced to wander a north shore beach desolate and alone.

The pond these days finds itself routinely astonished at being found quoting Anne Applebaum, and yet here we are in The Atlantic ...

Illiberalism Is Not Inevitable
If Viktor Orbán can lose, then his Russian and American admirers can lose too. (*intermittent archive link)

In the end, the defeat of Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s autocratic prime minister, required not just an ordinary election campaign or new messaging but rather the construction of a broad, diverse, and patriotic grassroots social movement. And by building exactly that, Hungary’s opposition changed politics around the world.
Orbán’s loss brings to an end the assumption of inevitability that has pervaded the MAGA movement, as well as the belief—also present in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric—that illiberal parties are somehow destined not just to win but to hold power forever, because they have the support of the “real” people. As it turns out, history doesn’t work like that. “Real” people grow tired of their rulers. Old ideas become stale. Younger people question orthodoxy. Illiberalism leads to corruption. And if Orbán can lose, then his Russian and American admirers can lose too.

So it was with the onion muncher, so surely it will hopefully be with mad king Donald.

And again ...

...whatever happens next, this election represents a real turning point. For most European governments, this result is a relief: We can’t know yet what kind of government Tisza will create, but it won’t be one that functions as Russia’s puppet in Europe, blocking EU funding for Ukraine or European sanctions on Russia. Nor will it be a regime that serves as a model for Americans or Europeans who want to capture their own states, or take apart their own checks and balances, or impose their own illiberal ideologies on people who don’t accept them.

It might be a frying pan v. fire situation, but at least there's a change of scenery.

And so ends another day ...