In which our Henry offers von Clausewitz while the grave Sexon offers meek, supine, abject surrender ...

 

After yesterday's history from the Lynch mob - essentially, think about Bismarck and you'll feel ever so much better about Adolf - the pond was keen to learn more from our Henry today, but first the obligatory reference to county, the land in which the pond currently dwells, with a tribute to a truly great Dick ...

Hmm, badly lit, and no Jeff in that rogues gallery outside Treasury - there has to be some standards left in the state - but with ceremony done, the pond could move on to survey the reptile offerings for the day ...

Over on the extreme far right, our Henry was top of the reptile world ma ...

The pond has no idea why the likes of Jimbo thinks it's a good idea to feed the hive mind and the Murdochian paywall, but was pleased to see that the grave Sexton had made a comeback ...

There was a Killer kontribution too, but the pond has to have some token placeholder for its travel day tomorrow ...

So it was on with our Henry, showing the Lynch mob what for ...

Trump has abandoned America’s principles, For all of America’s faults no one could imagine a president accusing the victim of being the aggressor and forcing it to pay for the war while letting the perpetrator off scot-free.

Not quite sounding like the Lynch mob, but there was an opening visual flourish, an offering of cantaloupe, melon and mango ... US President Donald Trump

That clown make-up is a huge selling point and a wondrous distraction.

Now to teach that bloody Lynch mob a dinkum history lesson ...

In the mid-1920s, France’s wartime prime minister, Georges Clemenceau, was asked who future generations would blame for the outbreak of the First World War. “That I don’t know,” he replied; “However, this much is certain: no one, but no one, will ever say it was Belgium that invaded Germany.”
He plainly had not met Donald Trump. Nor could Clemenceau imagine that a century later the same excuse Germany gave for its attack on Belgium – that the small state posed an existential threat to its far larger neighbour – would be used by an American president to justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
And even less could he imagine that an American president would demand that the small state, which had been the victim of aggression, bear the costs of the war, while letting the aggressor get off scot-free.
But disregard for good sense is hardly the only disturbing aspect of Trump’s policy towards Ukraine. Rather, the striking feature of that policy, whose broader geopolitical implications have been acutely analysed on these pages by Paul Kelly, is that it marks a fundamental break from principles that have long been at the heart of America’s international relations.

Praise for "Ned"!

Better still,  a cheap snap from the archives, Lloyd George and Georges Clemenceau at the Peace Conference in Versailles.

On with the history, and to hell with the Lynch mob ...

Thus, it was in 1932, after Japan had attacked Manchuria, that secretary of state Henry Stimson formulated the doctrine that the United States would not recognise “any situation, treaty or agreement” that involved annexation secured by a war of aggression.
Basing itself on that doctrine, the US refused to recognise the Soviet Union’s annexation of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia in 1941 – a refusal reaffirmed by every subsequent American administration.
The Ford administration therefore ensured that the Helsinki Final Act’s declaration of principles on territorial integrity, signed on August 1, 1975, included the provision that “no occupation or acquisition of territory in violation of international law will be recognised as legal”.
Nor did the US resile from the Stimson doctrine during and after the dissolution of the USSR. Rather, so as to smooth the formation of the Soviet Union’s successor states, the administration of George H. Bush strongly endorsed a two-stage process.
In the first stage, the newly created states’ borders would reproduce the administrative boundaries set in the Soviet era. After that, there could be negotiated agreements that varied those borders; but unless those variations were by mutual consent, the US, applying the Stimson doctrine, would neither recognise them as legitimate nor in any way support the aggressor state.
That approach too had longstanding roots. In effect, the US had first advocated the principle of setting the frontiers of new states according to previous administrative demarcations in 1824, when the countries of Latin America were freeing themselves from the Spanish empire. Formalised on US initiative in the Lima Treaty of 1848, and entering international law as the doctrine of “uti possidetis”, the International Court of Justice described it in 1986 as a “general principle” that applies to “the obtaining of independence, wherever it occurs”.

At this point the reptiles interrupted our Henry, just as he was in full stride, with an AV distraction.

Sky News contributor Kristin Tate claims US President Donald Trump has “no strategic benefit” in targeting Russian President Vladimir Putin. Her remarks come after The US President accused Mr Zelenskyy of being a "dictator". “I think Trump clearly understands that Putin’s no angel but there’s probably no strategic benefit right now for Trump to call Putin a dictator,” Ms Tate said. “Trump has been a guy who has negotiated billion-dollar deals … he’s one of the world’s greatest negotiators and let’s not forget at the same time, Zelenskyy is not really the poster boy for democracy.”

This Kristin - a better name surely than Karen - sounded entirely at odds with our Henry, but the pond realised it was Sky Noise down under, and the reptiles just love the unbalanced as a way of being fair and balanced ...

The upside? She wasn't blonde ... 

... but she was full Trumpian ... (sorry, the pond doesn't link to Sky) ...

Just getting started? They won't stop until they've wrecked the joint and fucked the country and Kristin will be cheering them on ...

Suddenly, the pond realised the cunningness of the reptile ploy ...throw up a barking mad "libertarian" of the US kind, a devotee of the Cantaloupe Caligula, and suddenly our Henry would appear relatively normal, as he wandered back in time seeking lessons and solace...

By simplifying the task of defining international borders, said the ICJ, it “prevents the independence and stability of new states being endangered by fratricidal struggles provoked by the challenging of frontiers following the withdrawal of the administering power”.
Far from disputing that principle or contesting its consequences, it was unambiguously approved by both Boris Yeltsin and – at least initially – by Vladimir Putin. As a result, in the Minsk Agreement of December 8, 1991 and the Declaration on Territorial Integrity and Inviolability of Borders of April 15, 1994, Russia recognised that Ukraine’s legitimate borders – like those of the other successor and continuation states, including Russia itself – were those in place at the time of the dissolution of the USSR.
That was specifically reaffirmed in the 1997 and 2003 bilateral treaties between Russia and Ukraine, with Article 2 of the 2003 Treaty, which was signed by Putin, incorporating maps that explicitly show Donbas and Crimea as falling within Ukraine’s sovereign territory.
As things turned out, Putin’s recognition of Ukraine’s sovereignty over those territories was as duplicitous as the treaties Stalin signed with Lithuania, on September 18, 1926, Latvia on February 8, 1932 and Estonia on May 4, 1932, guaranteeing “the inviolability of existing frontiers” and solemnly “undertaking to refrain from any act directed against the integrity of the territory or independence of the other party”.
Nor is it a coincidence that the language Putin used in justifying the assault on Ukraine mirrored that Stalin used when the USSR, so as to “reunite unjustly separated blood brothers”, relied on the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact to invade its near neighbours.
Given those circumstances, the US could reasonably be expected to recognise the importance of ensuring any ceasefire agreement came with robust security guarantees – guarantees that, in the short term, are solely within its power to offer. That is all the more the case as Russia has also advanced entirely illegitimate territorial claims, which could readily escalate, against Georgia, Moldova and Estonia.

Sheesh, our Henry is sounding like he stepped out of the pages of The Bulwark and suddenly landed in the hive mind, armed with a snap of an heroic freedom fighter, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky. Picture: Getty Images

Yep, over at The Bulwark, there was Mark Hertling, scribbling Trump’s Ukraine Deal Could Give Russia Everything It Wants, A frozen conflict in Ukraine is tantamount to a Russian victory.

Hertling ended with a flourish worthy of the bucket repair man:

...perhaps the most dangerous consequence of bad negotiations or an insufficient Western response in Ukraine is the message it would send to Moscow. If we do not counter Russia’s desire for territorial expansion, Putin will be emboldened to pursue further actions against neighboring states: hybrid warfare in the Baltic region, renewed pressure on Georgia and Moldova, or even direct military threats against NATO’s eastern front.
The choices made by NATO, the United States, and Ukraine will have lasting consequences far beyond the current war. Insufficient support for Ukraine risks not only a frozen conflict that cements Russian territorial gains, but also the erosion of NATO’s credibility and European security cohesion. It could embolden Russia to undertake further aggression in Europe, testing the limits of NATO’s collective defense commitments. Any deal that allows Russia once again to avoid defeat would be a betrayal of the Ukrainians, a win for the Russians, and a blunder by the United States.

Has our Henry considered leaving the hive mind and becoming a Bulwark correspondent? 

Sure, he slags off the deviant, decadent Europeans, but he's also a devotee of von Clausewitz ...

Trump, however, shows no sign of recognising those realities; and to make things worse, instead of helping Ukraine rebuild its shattered economy, which is essential to its ongoing security, he is forcing it to finance investments that will, it seems, be owned by the US.
There is, in the long history of US foreign relations, simply no precedent for those financial demands, which punish the war-crippled victim, not the perpetrator.
It is true that in the aftermath of World War II, the US sought partial repayment by its allies of the assistance it had provided under Lend-Lease; but even in 1946 and 1947, new US loans and grants outweighed Lend-Lease repayments by a factor of five – and once the Marshall Plan got under way, the net flow of US aid was even greater.
Of course, none of that is intended to let the Europeans off the hook. As I have repeatedly argued, their failure to enforce the agreements they made with Russia to end its invasion of Georgia and then to stabilise the situation in Ukraine played a key role in inciting Putin’s aggression. It is, moreover, the Europeans’ refusal to bolster their defence capabilities that has forced Ukraine to depend so heavily on American military assistance.
However, those serious errors neither excuse nor justify the US abandoning principles that – even if they have often been imperfectly implemented – have helped make the world a safer place, including for Americans.
Putin, Trump claims, wants peace. But as the great military theorist Carl von Clausewitz observed two centuries ago: “An invader is always a lover of peace: he would like to make his entry into our state unopposed.” If invaders are to be deterred, he concluded, there is one option and one option only: “We must be willing to meet their attack with decisive force”. With Trump determined to ignore that warning, the agreement he forges may prove to be a peace that ends all peace.

Take that supine sellout Lynch mob, defaming the University of Melbourne's reputation ...

Now all Heil along with the immortal Rowe ...

It wouldn't be a genuine pond outing, without someone from the hive mind acting as a lickspittle, craven, supine, fawning dogsbody, and so the grave Sexton returned from nowhere to join in the Heiling ...

Only US and Russia can end the bloodshed in Ukraine, The EU has complained about being sidelined by the discussions between the US and Russia over some kind of settlement to end the conflict in Ukraine. But this is the inevitable result of the EU’s role in the conflict over the past three years.

It was only a three minute read, so the reptiles said, short enough to keep the nausea under control as the reptiles opened with Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump.

Clearly the grave Sexton hadn't read our Henry's history lesson, or if he had, couldn't understand a word of it and was determined to join the Putinesque leopard eating his face party ...

The European Union has complained about being sidelined by the discussions between the US and Russia over some kind of settlement to end the conflict in Ukraine. In many ways, however, this is the inevitable result of the EU’s role in the conflict over the past three years.
During that period the EU has provided military equipment and financial assistance to Ukraine, although not nearly on the scale of that supplied by the US, but it has never made any effort to suggest how the conflict might ultimately be resolved. In fact, under the leadership of France and, to a lesser extent, Germany, it has encouraged Ukraine to reject any suggestion of negotiations that might lead to a settlement of the conflict.

Ah, so peaceful Vlad the sociopath just wanted a deal, and the perfidious French and stolid Germans had ruined everything, French President Emmanuel Macron welcomes Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz before a summit of European leaders about Ukraine in Paris on February 17. Picture: AFP

There's always got to be at least one mug punter eager to buy the snake oil, and the grave Sexton put up his hand ... 

Sock it to us with some Vlad the sociopath talking points, notions that would be at home on Russian state TV ...

It is easy – and correct at one level – to say the only just solution to the conflict is for Russia to withdraw from the territory it unilaterally invaded. But this is to ignore the reality that the Russians cannot be dislodged from some of these areas of Ukraine and they may well occupy even more territory if the war continues.
Moreover, the EU encouraged the eastwards expansion of NATO that commenced in the 1990s and supported the overthrow of the elected Ukrainian government in 2014. Neither of these occurrences constitutes a valid excuse for the invasion but there is certainly a question as to whether that invasion would have taken place in the absence of these events, particularly the accession of an anti-Russian administration in Kyiv in 2014.
It has been said that any settlement that left some of the – traditionally pro-Russian – territory in eastern Ukraine in Russian hands would amount to a concession that Russia exercises a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. Historically, however, all great powers have exercised spheres of influence in and around their borders. Since the Monroe Doctrine was proclaimed in 1823 by the US, it has designated both North and South America to be US spheres of influence where foreign interference or hostile governments would not be tolerated. And there is no doubt China exercises a similar role in the Asian region. Russia is not as great a power as the US or China but its size and resources mean it is bound to have some influence over its neighbours.

Coming next week, reasons to take over Canada ...

The crazy never ends, at least if you can believe The Telegraph (barking mad UK brand, not the monumentally stupid local brand) ...

Meanwhile, the reptiles had slipped in an AV distraction designed to bolster the grave Sexton ...

Donald Trump says it will be up to Europe to provide security guarantees to Ukraine in the event a peace deal can be reached with Russia. "I'm not going to make security guarantees beyond very much," Mr Trump said. "We're going to have Europe do that because … we're talking about Europe is their next door neighbour, but we're making sure everything goes well."

What does our Henry make of being forced to keep company with this member of the Putinesque leopard face eating party?

All this suggest the only real possibility of ending the war lies in direct discussions between the US and Russia. 

Why, he's the answer to this age's urgent need for a Neville Chamberlain. 

And just like Neville he's got a great billy goat butt ...

It is true that Ukraine is a sovereign state and would have to consent to any terms of settlement but the enormous financial support the US continues to provide to Ukraine would be a powerful factor in its consideration of any terms, given the withdrawal of that support would significantly, perhaps fatally, damage Ukraine’s ability to continue its resistance to Russian advances.

So simple for the Ukrainians.

Roll over and let the grave Sexton and Vlad the sociopath stick it up you, until they're sure you're completely done ...

The two sticking points in any negotiations are obviously how much of Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russia would continue to remain under Russian control, and whether there should be any prospect of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO at some point in the future. On the second question, there seems to be a sharp division between the US and the EU, given the American opposition to Ukraine obtaining the formal status as a NATO member. The same division appears to exist between the US and the British, who have, however, tried to make themselves relevant to any settlement process by offering to place peacekeeping troops on the ground in Ukraine.
One matter that should not be a sticking point is the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. It is true that Crimea was at that time technically Ukrainian territory but this was really an accident of the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s. It was unrealistic to imagine Crimea would not at some point return to Russia of which it had long been part.

Crimea, sold to the property developer, the new Riviera of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov ... but no, the pond isn't going to feature that bizarre video featuring bearded dancing girls and fatted golden statues ...

There's only so much nausea the pond can take in one day, and the grave Sexton has pretty much done the pond in ...

Almost as an afterthought, the reptiles flung in a snap of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The pond was surprised. What's he got to offer the grave Sexton, busy offering everything he could, including the kitchen sink, to Vlad the Impaler?

If you're going to be a complete sell-out, why show the slightest interest in those you're selling down the river?

There are many in the West who insist that Russian aggression should not be rewarded and cite the 1938 Munich Agreement as evidence that resistance is the only useful course. In what is almost a century since that agreement, Munich has often been invoked, even in relation to Vietnam in the 1960s, but seldom with any real utility, perhaps not surprisingly in view of its highly unusual circumstances.
There have been few parallels in history to Hitler’s Germany, and the current Russian regime, whatever its deficiencies, could hardly be placed in the same category. The conflict in Ukraine will only be ended by some fresh thinking and not by outdated historical analogies.

Credit where credit is due ..

Michael Sexton is the author of Dissenting Opinions.

Dissenting? Is that what they're calling lickspittle running dogs and Putin lackeys these days? 

Why he's about as dissenting as Vladimir Solovyov or Olga Skabeyeva ... but the reptiles did achieve their aim, making our Henry sound like the voice of calm reason and historical insight, as if for a nanosecond, our Henry had managed to step outside the hive mind, while the grave Sexton resolutely stayed within it.

And so to end with the infallible Pope of the day, and everything still seems to revolve around the Tesla dude, with the mutton Dutton celebrating Doge ...