Devastating news for those who like to keep up their loon quota on a Monday ... no sign of the Caterist early in the day ...
There was the bromancer, doing his level best to cope with mango Mussolini madness, while over on the extreme far right, that old dog, the Major, was top of the reptile pile ...
The pond did appreciate the attempt by Jenny to lather up hysteria in favour of the mango Mussolini on the matter of the Panama canal - her fear of China had an almost bromancer fragrance to it - but the pond will accept no substitutes and turned to the bro ...
This North American trade war is silly and wrong, but expect Donald Trump to win it easily, Canada and Mexico taking on the US on tariffs is a bit like me picking a fight with Mike Tyson. It’s barely possible I might get one punch in, but the result is not remotely in doubt.
So much winning, but surprisingly the bro could only spend three minutes on the winning, together with an opening snap of the winner, Donald Trump to win trade war against Canada’s Justin Trudeau. Picture: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images via AFP
As usual, the bro tried to spin it all as best he could ...
But this is the shape of things to come.
And incidentally, Trump has begun the great saga of all the tariffs he will in time threaten and impose on China.
Trump loves tariffs. He has decided that tariffs and sanctions are his coercive measure of choice, his preferred revenue raising mechanism and the means by which he will reshape the international economic order and restructure the American economy.
The world will see a lot more of Trump’s tariffs, and no country, not even Australia, can consider itself immune.
Canada’s Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, and Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, have announced retaliatory tariffs on the US.
This is more or less a necessary move, but it’s not going to work.
At this point the reptiles slipped in an AV distraction ...
U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday (February 1) ordered 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports and 10% on goods from China starting on Tuesday (February 4) to address a national emergency over fentanyl and illegal aliens entering the U.S., White House officials said. Alex Cohen reports.
Ah yes, look at all the trucks, look at all the winning ...
The bro pressed on ...
Nonetheless, it’s more than likely that this will be solved within weeks rather than months.
As ever with Trump, the action is outrageous, over the top, slightly mad, breaks all kinds of norms, and yet there is a genuine grievance he’s addressing and his actions, as unsubtle as they are, will likely have more or less the desired effect.
It’s true that Mexico has been happy enough to let illegal immigrants flow through its territory to the United States. That’s a problem. For every nation, including the US, has a right to protect its borders.
When Tony Abbott stopped the boats coming illegally to Australia from the north, at first this was a nuisance to Indonesia. It meant that people who would have come to Australia stayed in Indonesia. However, as a figure at the very top of Indonesian Government once remarked to me, it ultimately meant that the people stopped coming illegally to Indonesia in order to come to Australia. Once the boats stopped the issue between the two nations disappeared and no-one was happier about that than the Indonesian Government.
Then the reptiles decided to insert a snap of a major villain, Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. (Photo by Dave Chan / AFP)
That's unfortunate, because it reminded the pond of data that the bromancer studiously ignored. Per Forbes ... Tariff On Canada Not Justified By U.S. Immigration And Drug Claims
While illegal crossings from Canada have increased in recent years, they are still nowhere near the levels seen at the southern border. Furthermore, the migration flow is not one-sided. In 2023, the last year for which we have statistics at the moment, more people crossed illegally from the United States into Canada than in the opposite direction. With Canada experiencing a labor shortage and increasing economic opportunities, it is likely that the number of individuals moving north in 2025, both legally and illegally, will continue to surpass those moving south.
And again ...
In Fiscal Year 2024, USCBP seized 21,148 pounds of fentanyl at the southwest border, mostly smuggled from Mexico. In contrast, only 43 pounds were intercepted at the northern border. This means that less than 1% of all fentanyl seizures occurred at the U.S.-Canada border.
Furthermore, drug flows are not a one-way street. In 2024, the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) seized approximately 10.8 pounds of fentanyl coming into Canada from the United States. In comparison, CBSA reported that 17.6 pounds of fentanyl were smuggled from Canada into the U.S. This suggests that the trafficking issue is not as one-sided as the administration claims.
And so on ... not mentioning that the MM is also breaking his own trade agreement, and that the notion of "winning" is absurd not just in the context of what Canada might do, but also by the bromancer's account, what Mexico might be able to do to satisfy the surrealist-in-chief...
Trump has told confidantes that he believes this is a deliberate policy by Beijing designed to weaken and undermine the United States.
One problem for Mexico, however, is that it’s pretty unclear what level of action on Mexico’s part will satisfy Trump.
The equation Trump wants is for the pain he inflicts to outweigh the gain from turning a blind eye, or worse, to fentanyl smuggling and facilitating illegal immigration.
But solving these issues may be beyond Mexico’s capabilities. Even Mexico’s best friend would not say it’s an especially effective state.
It may also be that all this drama, and promise of action by Trump, is too good a performance for Trump to give it up.
Cue a snap of Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum. (Photo by Alfredo ESTRELLA / AFP)
The bromancer's advice, surrender somehow to the madness! Though the bromancer never seemed certain how to do the surrendering, or what might constitute all the winning ...
He’s likely to be successful in this. However, if he gets the reputation of creating too much instability in American trading life this could be a disincentive to investment.
In the end, these tariffs could be disruptive for the US, but they are potentially devastating to Mexico and Canada.
So, much as they might dislike Trump personally, much as domestic politics might require them to put up some show of defiance, Mexican and Canadian leaders have an overwhelming incentive to find a way to placate Trump.
As did Colombia on the issue of receiving its citizens back who had been deported from the US.
Cue another snap of the alleged winner, US President Donald Trump . (Photo by Mandel NGAN / AFP)
What could the bromancer do but offer passive submission? After all, it's just a jolly spat amongst chums ...
And let’s not for a second think Trump is alone in this. China for years nakedly used trade restrictions as a measure of political intimidation against Australia. Many nations honour free trade mainly in the breach.
Trump has declared the age of tariffs. There is much much more of this to come.
At this point the pond was reminded of a recent WSJ editorial.
Unlike the bromancer, his kissing American cousins didn't hold back in The Dumbest Trade War in History, Trump will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for no good reason.
The pond skipped past the illustration, only pausing to admire the caption ...An employee aseembles automobile plastic components at an ISGO Manufacturing SA facility in San Luis Potosi, Mexico
The Murdochians sounded mad as they aseembled their arguments...
Leaving China aside, Mr. Trump’s justification for this economic assault on the neighbors makes no sense. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says they’ve “enabled illegal drugs to pour into America.” But drugs have flowed into the U.S. for decades, and will continue to do so as long as Americans keep using them. Neither country can stop it.
Drugs may be an excuse since Mr. Trump has made clear he likes tariffs for their own sake. “We don’t need the products that they have,” Mr. Trump said on Thursday. “We have all the oil you need. We have all the trees you need, meaning the lumber.”
Mr. Trump sometimes sounds as if the U.S. shouldn’t import anything at all, that America can be a perfectly closed economy making everything at home. This is called autarky, and it isn’t the world we live in, or one that we should want to live in, as Mr. Trump may soon find out.
***
Take the U.S. auto industry, which is really a North American industry because supply chains in the three countries are highly integrated. In 2024 Canada supplied almost 13% of U.S. imports of auto parts and Mexico nearly 42%. Industry experts say a vehicle made on the continent goes back and forth across borders a half dozen times or more, as companies source components and add value in the most cost-effective ways.
And everyone benefits. The office of the U.S. Trade Representative says that in 2023 the industry added more than $809 billion to the U.S. economy, or about 11.2% of total U.S. manufacturing output, supporting “9.7 million direct and indirect U.S. jobs.” In 2022 the U.S. exported $75.4 billion in vehicles and parts to Canada and Mexico. That number jumped 14% in 2023 to $86.2 billion, according to the American Automotive Policy Council.
American car makers would be much less competitive without this trade. Regional integration is now an industry-wide manufacturing strategy—also employed in Japan, Korea and Europe—aimed at using a variety of high-skilled and low-cost labor markets to source components, software and assembly.
The result has been that U.S. industrial capacity in autos has grown alongside an increase in imported motor vehicles, engines and parts. From 1995-2019, imports of autos, engines and parts rose 169% while U.S. industrial capacity in autos, engines and parts rose 71%.
As the Cato Institute’s Scott Lincicome puts it, the data show that “as imports go up, U.S. production goes up.” Thousands of good-paying auto jobs in Texas, Ohio, Illinois and Michigan owe their competitiveness to this ecosystem, relying heavily on suppliers in Mexico and Canada.
Tariffs will also cause mayhem in the cross-border trade in farm goods. In fiscal 2024, Mexican food exports made up about 23% of total U.S. agricultural imports while Canada supplied some 20%. Many top U.S. growers have moved to Mexico because limits on legal immigration have made it hard to find workers in the U.S. Mexico now supplies 90% of avocados sold in the U.S. Is Mr. Trump now an avocado nationalist?
Then there’s the prospect of retaliation, which Canada and Mexico have shown they know how to do for maximum political impact. In 2009 the Obama Administration and Congressional Democrats ended a pilot program that allowed Mexican long-haul truckers into the U.S. as stipulated in Nafta. Mexico responded with targeted retaliation on 90 U.S. goods to pressure industries in key Congressional districts.
These included California grapes and wine, Oregon Christmas trees and cherries, jams and jellies from Ohio and North Dakota soy. When Mr. Trump imposed steel and aluminum tariffs in 2018, Mexico got results using the same tactic, putting tariffs on steel, pork products, fresh cheese and bourbon.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has promised to respond to U.S. tariffs on a dollar-for-dollar basis. Canada could suffer a larger GDP hit since its economy is so much smaller, but American consumers will feel the bite of higher costs for some goods.
***
None of this is supposed to happen under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that Mr. Trump negotiated and signed in his first term. The U.S. willingness to ignore its treaty obligations, even with friends, won’t make other countries eager to do deals. Maybe Mr. Trump will claim victory and pull back if he wins some token concessions. But if a North American trade war persists, it will qualify as one of the dumbest in history.
And if a North American trade war persists, the bromancer will surely qualify as the best to provide the dumbest coverage in history, though he'll have to work hard to match all the dumbness on parade.
And so to the Major ... still in election mode, and reaching for the usual slurs, in The Albo and Jim show is a reckless sequel to Rudd-Swan, Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers are making the same mistakes Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard did – minus the public leadership instability.
After the wild-eyed excitement provoked by the MM, the best the reptiles could offer was a snap of a shifty looking, grimacing, surly Albo, Anthony Albanese at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman
It was a standard reptile ploy, part of the election mode playbook, and the Major was in bog standard form ...
Originally this was to prevent reporters from capitalising on inside knowledge that might move financial markets. Nowadays budgets are so comprehensively leaked the only reason to continue with lock-ups is to try to influence media coverage.
Back in the Gillard years – during which time I was editor-in-chief of The Australian – I phoned my cartoonist, the late great Bill Leak, at 7.31pm at his home on the NSW central coast to discuss a page one cartoon that might reflect the actual content of that 2011 budget.
That's how it goes these days, with the Major sounding more and more like a barfly indulging in the mammaries and trotting down memory lane ...on and on he meandered as the pond did its best to focus on the blather ...
An hour later Bill emailed a rough drawing of Swan as Crocodile Dundee with a small oyster shucker in one hand and a toy crocodile in the other. The page one headline read: “That’s not a knife, Treasurer”.
Present Labor Treasurer Jim Chalmers was Swan’s chief of staff. Like Swan and Rudd, Chalmers kicked off as Treasurer by writing a long essay about making capitalism kinder. The original Labor model for such posturing was former Labor opposition leader Mark Latham, who in 1998 wrote a whole book on the issue, titled, Civilising Global Capital.
The country was lucky to dodge Latham, but not so lucky with Rudd, Swan and Chalmers who all thought themselves “economic seers” but never achieved the reforms of previous treasurers, Paul Keating or Peter Costello.
Partly paraphrasing economics Professor Richard Holden in The Australian Financial Review on January 2, Chalmers (and in this column’s view Rudd and Swan) fought the laws (of economics) but the laws won.
In Rudd’s case it was huge spending to prevent a GFC-induced recession Australia was never going to have because of the revenue boom flowing from coal and iron ore sales to China.
Swan in 2012 announced four surpluses that became large deficits. Then, in 2013, ahead of an election Labor expected to lose to opposition leader Tony Abbott, Swan’s budget included the greatest Labor debt bomb of the past two decades: the National Disability Insurance Scheme, that is set to cost $100bn a year by the middle of the century.
In addition to the NDIS, that last Swan budget included projected funding for 10 years of Gillard’s Gonski education reforms, paid for with cuts that Labor knew Abbott would find unpalatable.
Leak that year drew Swan in a Queensland Reds jersey kicking a debt bomb rather than a rugby ball to Abbott in a blue NSW jersey. Chalmers too is kicking the national debt down the road: MYEFO in December predicted a deficit of $27bn and no return to balance for a decade.
The pond rarely yearns for the reptiles' bog standard from the archives visual interruptions, but even a Swannie interruption was appreciated, Former Labor treasurer Wayne Swan delivers his valedictory speech in the House of Representatives at Parliament House in 2019. Picture: AAP
Was there a side order of Cold Chisel with that? Or maybe the Boss?
Never mind, the reptiles could have taken the trouble to read the Major's text and wandered down memory lane with him and discovered those Leak cartoons, but in the end, they couldn't be stuffed, and the pond was pleased that nothing Leakian had managed to dribble its way into the pond ... so many bad memories, so much horror ...
These days the Major is a bit like "Ned", and when not recycling his memories, is inclined to recycle the thoughts of others, provided they suit his election campaign mode ... and so it came to pass ...
On Friday, Clare Armstrong in the News Corp tabloids reported most of the childcare subsidy increase introduced in September 2023 had already been eaten up by fee rises, just as this column predicted.
Chalmers has presided over record growth in federal and state public service job creation. He has run expansionary fiscal policy that he says shows Australia can beat inflation without destroying jobs.
Never mind per capita incomes have been in recession for a record seven consecutive quarters. Or that without more than a million migrants in two years the nation would be in recession.
Chalmers and his Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, have used public spending to avoid being tossed out of office after only one term. Just as both did when part of the first Rudd government 15 years earlier.
Yet, despite the fall in inflation revealed last Wednesday, it is not clear a single 0.25 per cent rate cut in February, which is no certainty, will save Albo.
Economist Steven Hamilton, writing in The Australian Financial Review on December 8, nailed the problem: prosperity is driven by the private sector.
Hamilton argued there were now two economies in Australia: the very sick private sector (“Consumption went backwards over the past six months. Investment has ground to a halt. Employment growth is anaemic.”) and the parasitic healthy public sector economy “that is sucking the life out of” the private economy.
In the public economy, “consumption has grown 10 times faster than in the (private) economy. Investment is at its fastest in six years. Employment growth is at its fastest in at least 30 years outside the pandemic”.
Disputing Chalmers’ claim that without this public spending the economy would be worse, Hamilton explained, “what’s missing from the Treasurer’s (analysis) is that, had he and his state colleagues showed a modicum of restraint over the past two-and-a-half years, interest rates would be lower (now)”, stimulating private sector activity and employment.
While unemployment is low at 4 per cent, 87 per cent of all jobs growth in the past two years has been in the non-market sector – many in the NDIS, aged care and child care.
Add to that the deliberate wage rises engineered by former industrial relations minister Tony Burke. Figures released on November 7 show the number of federal public servants rose 3.6 per cent in the year to June 30 and their wages climbed eight per cent to $232bn.
Still Chalmers claims things are better here than overseas. Is he right?
Chalmers believes in a new world driven by the opportunities of power price falls from renewable energy and the growth of the care economy. He sees government at the centre of the economy – a European social democratic model.
But as Judith Sloan wrote in The Australian on January 15, Europe is in trouble. Its engine room, Germany, is in recession largely because, like our government, it has plunged headlong into renewable energy, losing its comparative advantage in manufacturing to China.
Yet the US, where capitalism and fossil fuels are about to be turbocharged by President Donald Trump, boasts “median disposable income … 25 per cent higher than in Germany and 60 per cent higher than in Italy”, Sloan wrote.
Productivity is surging in the US, but in the doldrums in Australia, Germany and France.
On most measures – growth, unemployment, productivity and business investment – US capitalism is proving much more resilient than Labor’s essayists foresaw.
Apparently open economies, free markets and deregulated wages work well to allocate scarce resources. Who knew?
Who knew? A tariff war is the new turbo charger?
Apparently the MM didn't ... just tune your banjo for an immortal Rowe ...
He and Albanese are making the same mistakes Rudd and Gillard did – minus the public leadership instability. Voters wanting prosperity need to hope they don’t do a deal with the Greens to form majority government the way Gillard did in 2010.
The pond could have celebrated with him ... especially as the 'leets were sounding disgruntled ...per Millie Cooke in The Independent, Number of Britons who think Brexit was right decision hits new low, new YouGov poll shows, On the five-year anniversary of Britain’s EU exit, new YouGov polling lays bare damning public sentiment on the decision
Just three in 10 Britons (30 per cent) say that it was right for the UK to vote to leave the EU, compared to 55 per cent who say it was wrong, a new YouGov poll has shown.
This is the lowest proportion of the public saying that Britain was right to vote to leave since the pollster began asking this question in the aftermath of the referendum.
In January 2020, when Britain officially left the bloc after voting to leave four years earlier, 40 per cent of people said it was the right decision, while 47 per cent said it was wrong.
Now, more than six in 10 Britons (62 per cent) say that Brexit has so far been more of a failure, against just 11 per cent who feel that it has been more of a success, though a more noncommittal 20 per cent of Britons consider it to be neither a success nor failure.
Notably, even Leave voters are more likely to consider Brexit to have gone badly than well, with 32 per cent labelling it more of a failure so far, compared to 22 per cent describing it as more of a success.
Ah they FAFO'd, but the Caterist didn't see it coming ...
It's true that there were a few levels and bevels to the data ...
By contrast, 88 per cent of Remainers think a vote for Brexit was wrong, with just 7 per cent saying it was the right choice.
Meanwhile, among 18-24-year-olds – who were unable to vote in the referendum - there is little belief that it went the right way – with three-quarters saying it was the wrong choice. Just one in 10 (10 per cent) say the UK made the right choice.
The latest polling comes after a damning report to mark the fifth anniversary of Britain’s departure from the EU, UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) said it appears that EU policy appears “peripheral to Starmer’s government”.
“The Brexit Files”, published on Tuesday by UKICE, lays bare the impact of Brexit on areas of the economy such as trade, immigration and defence, as well as the state of Sir Keir Starmer’s attempts to rebuild ties with Brussels.
The report branded the prime minister’s post-Brexit reset of relations with Brussels as anaemic, warning that his EU policy is vague and unambitious.
And, despite the PM and Rachel Reeves relentlessly focusing on economic growth, the EU relations think tank said it was remarkable that the chancellor’s October Budget failed to mention the impacts of Brexit once.
The YouGov survey, conducted on 21-22 January, spoke to 2,225 adults.
... but the results seemed to point conclusively to the notion that Brexit was a gigantic dud, a flop of the first water, that nobody was very happy about it all ... and that the Caterist had pointed the way for Britain to match those who thought he knew all there was to know about the movement of flood waters in quarries ...
So this is to honour the Caterist in absentia, and may he long continue to flourish, and if in absentia, so much the better...