Here's the pond's problem ...
The reptiles were at it again, all of them out and about, with guns blazing ...
It's no longer about the victims, it's no longer about anti-Semitism, the headline on "Ned's" piece made the purpose of the jihad clear ...
Anthony Albanese has been shamed into action but it’s nowhere near enough to win back trust.
An ugly, brutal massacre of innocents turned into an ugly, brutal political frenzy ...
In that febrile climate, night followed day ...
How is that 'Bondi 2.0'? Unless that's a reference to the way that Microsoft products always got worse after every new release.
Car wrecked, men detained, and for what? Release within a couple of hours.
If they weren't radicalised beforehand, chances are that, thanks to the NSW plods, they're radicalised now ...
What is it with the bumbling NSW plods?
Back to the problem at hand.
The pond has always refused to indulge the reptiles when it comes to assorted jihads, whether it's demonising TG folk or industrial scale black bashing, and again the pond must draw the line.
But that left the pond wondering how to fill in the space.
The pond could have turned to culture critiquing and recycled Kermode discussing the latest Avatar outing as a nightmarish convention of furries ... (not that the pond has anything against furries).
Or the pond could have turned to the United States, where King Donald always delivers, lately by renaming the Kennedy Centre after himself, there being no end to his narcissism or the pandering of his acolytes.
As always there was reliable nonsense from the ratbag fringe ...
Erika Kirk told a Turning Point USA conference that she would work to elect JD Vance president in 2028, at an event in which MAGA divisions were on full display. (intermittent archive link)
The couch lover as the new king?!
Sadly, it's too early into the weekend for the real cherry to come to the top in that nest of worms... (intermittent archive link)
Meanwhile, even state media thought King Donald matters had gone too far ...
TOO FAR
Even Brian Kilmeade couldn’t accept the president’s bizarre new plaques under images of his predecessors.
Repulsive behaviour?
How the pond yearns for Russian state media to turn the same way about Vlad the sociopath...
How rare is that in American state media at last there came a belated recognition that it's government of the trolls by the king troll for all the trolls?
The pond could even have turned futurist ...
The best-known manufacturer of autonomous vacuums declared bankruptcy this week, and no one should be surprised. (*archive link)
But all these detours and distractions aren't right or proper.
The pond's remit is the reptiles.
The pond scoured the lizard Oz for alternatives, but sadly this is the best the pond could discover, which is not to say that it's the best, just the only alternative ...
At least it explained why going bankrupt with Roomba was a jolly good thing ... turns out it was a necessary bubble ...
The header: Why tech bubbles that destroy wealth are the necessary price of progress, Asset bubbles around new technologies such as AI can destroy investor wealth but create the infrastructure for humanity’s next leap forward.
The caption for a wretched bit of visual slop: AI stock market graph trading analysis investment financial, stock exchange financial forex graph stock market graph chart business crisis crash grow up profits win up trend server digital technology
It was only a 3 minute read, and truly the pond would have been better off at Wired ...
What a deeply weird country it is.
The pond blames Pluribus for the way it keeps the pond hanging each week for the solution to the alien invasion, knowing full well that any ending will just be a cliff hanger for the next series... (no, the pond doesn't subscribe to Apple).
Or the pond might have been better off at Ars Technica, where it seems like News Corp missed out on a very buggy and sketchy deal ...
...but needs must ...and here we are, with the warning signs early apparent, as this outing was listed under "Wealth" and "Investing":
While most currently consider bubbles a dangerous precondition for a stockmarket crash, they can also be better navigated by appreciating they’re a necessary step on the road to humanity’s advancement.
As I have noted previously, there’s a myriad of definitions for asset bubbles, but most fall into two camps: those that measure overvaluation and those that observe the behaviours and conditions that typically give rise to it.
But in their book published a year ago, Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation, authors Byrne Hobart and Tobias Huber propose two further variations.
The first, known as a “mean-reversion bubble”, is when purely financial fads rise on empty promises and subsequently collapse. This example might be best illustrated by the subprime mortgage crisis, which, of course, revolutionised absolutely nothing.
The second is the “inflection bubble”. Inflection bubbles are centred on technological breakthroughs, in particular. Historical examples I have previously cited include railroads, electricity, the internet and, today, artificial intelligence. These bubbles move money, but they also ultimately move the world.
The low cost of progress
Inflection bubbles’ benefit to society stems from the associated hype’s ability to radically lower the cost of capital. When fear of missing out takes hold, investors stop demanding immediate, safe returns. Instead, they pour billions into speculative ventures that would usually be laughed at. Even governments succumb to the exuberance, granting easy conditions and even easier funding.
Those companies at the centre of the hysteria then take advantage of the cheap capital to scale the technology in a winner-takes-all race for market share.
Renowned British-Venezuelan scholar and economist Carlota Perez calls it the Installation Phase, and it allows for massive infrastructure, such as the fibre-optic cables of the 90s and the railway tracks of the 1800s. Early investors lost fortunes, but the remnant infrastructure became the backbone of the next century’s economic expansion.
The hype means that cautious testing over 10 years by a single entity is replaced with 50 companies testing 100 versions simultaneously. Consider personal VTOL aircraft as a current niche example.
Just to prove nothing, there came another example of visual slop, VTOL aircraft are the current niche example of the race to scale the technology and win market share.
On and on the spendthrift futurist rambled ...
Throwing caution to the wind
A collective delusion that the path from invention to worldwide adoption will be an uninterrupted 45-degree “north-easterly” line attracts human talent as well as capital. Meanwhile, the hype that inflates bubbles creates a rare environment in which the usual rules of risk are suspended, and prudence is shunned. While much of this money is eventually lost when the bubble pops, the physical and intellectual assets (the “learnings” about the technology – but not the bubble!) remain.
Broad adoption can only occur when the technology is affordable. Cheap funding fuels inevitable oversupply, which produces losses for investors, but brings down the price of the technology, allowing its broader uptake. In other words, a period of creative destruction is necessary for the technology to change the course of human history.
Think of it this way. The prosperity derived from the technology is only made possible by the money-losing investments of the mania that preceded it.
Be right but go broke
Investors must understand that correctly predicting AI technology will change the course of humanity, even if for the better, doesn’t automatically translate to great investment returns.
History is littered with general purpose technologies such as the automobile, electricity, commercial flight, steam locomotion and TV which have all changed the course of human history.
Cue yet another piece of visual slop, General purpose technologies such as steam locomotion have changed the course of human history. Picture: Chris Kidd
Was there anything of interest? Well surely never have so many clichés been assembled for the creative destruction of the pond's brain cells ...
It was, perhaps, given the alternatives, a necessary waste of time...
Creative destruction
Investors are often confused during the fallout because they correctly predicted the technology’s life-altering nature, yet their portfolios suggest they were wrong. These investors fail to realise that the “this-technology-is-going-to-change-history” theme is perceived as structural and uninterrupted. The reality is that suppliers must meet cyclical rather than structural customer demand.
The creative destruction is the final, painful mechanism required for the technology to truly succeed. After the massive losses, buyers of distressed assets secure the technology from distraught early investors and having acquired the infrastructure for cents in the dollar, they ensure the technology is widely and affordably distributed. It is only then that the course of human history truly changes.
A necessary waste
Mean-reversion bubbles destroy wealth and leave nothing behind. Inflection bubbles destroy wealth but leave behind the foundation of a more prosperous future. The waste is a feature, not a bug – it is the price paid for surfing the wave of the future.
Invention, hype, cheap capital, overcapacity, creative destruction and distressed buying are the processes that ensure new and innovative technologies change the course of human history, placing it in every person’s hands.
Looking at the valuations and the scaling in AI today, you surely recognise the pattern. We’re living through the costly birth of a new paradigm, whose construction must be financed by capital that is typically destroyed.
Roger Montgomery is founder and CIO at Montgomery Investment Management.
The pond refrained from providing a link to the source of all this slop ... MIM will have to get by on its own, but if ever the pond wants to get advice on investing in tulips or American health insurance, the pond will know where to go ...
As for the politics, the pond will allow the thoughts of one politician, albeit drawn from another place ... (*archive link) ...
Stripped of visuals and ads, this is what Olmert had to say, and being a politician, it was fair enough for him to engage in some politics ...
It is precisely because of the real and deadly threats faced by Jews around the globe that leaders of the Israeli and Jewish communities have a sacred obligation to address these threats with candour, intelligence and rigour. This is a test that Netanyahu failed utterly in his recent disingenuous, opportunistic broadside against the Australian government. And it is why I want to react to some of Netanyahu’s most blatant and counter-productive fallacies.
Netanyahu baselessly asserted that the Australian government’s position in favour of a Palestinian state “poured fuel on the antisemitic fire” that caused this horror. This is worse than nonsense.
While I am not always on the same page with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese – and I was disappointed several times when his reactions sounded more anti-Israel than against the Israeli government – I share with him the same perception that a two-state solution is the only possible solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. And it is essential for Israel’s long-term security. If supporting a non-militarised Palestinian state alongside the state of Israel is antisemitism, then many, many Israelis – I being one of them – are in that same place.
Australia, and particularly Sydney, a city I love, were the focus of some of the most aggressive riots against Israel and Jews immediately after the carnage on October 7, 2023. The antisemitic chants emanating in those days from a hateful few can never be forgotten or forgiven. However, to accuse the government of Australia or its prime minister of promoting and fuelling antisemitism is outrageous, ugly and unjustified.
Much more absolutely must be done to counter intolerably rising antisemitism in Australia. But contrary to Netanyahu’s assertions, the Australian government has taken some important steps under current leadership.
To accuse the government of Australia or its prime minister of promoting and fuelling antisemitism is outrageous, ugly and unjustified.
Some highlights to date include the Australian Federal Police’s “Operation Avalite” to investigate antisemitic acts, unmasking Iran’s role behind antisemitic arson attacks and then expelling the Iranian ambassador (the first since Japan’s ambassador was expelled in World War II), assuming new powers to tackle state-sponsored terrorism and domestic hate crimes, and spending $25 million to increase security at Jewish community sites. The appointment of Jillian Segal as Australia’s first special envoy to combat antisemitism was another important step – one that must now be quickly followed by rigorous implementation of her recommendations.
All of Australian society must work against antisemitism. Thankfully, the reactions this week give reason for hope. The weeping crowds at the Bondi memorial have included all of Australia’s renowned multicultural community. Clergy from every faith have condemned the violence, offered love to Australia’s Jews, and asked everyone to transcend hate so that we may live together in peace. Though it follows an unspeakable horror, this week in Sydney the loving majority rose up to drown out the hateful few. May it continue to be so.
The ultimate lesson from Bondi, and from our broader conflict in the Middle East, remains this: “We must live together as brothers, or perish together as fools,” as Dr Martin Luther King Jr wisely put it. In living that lesson, I hope you take inspiration from the selfless example of Ahmed al Ahmed, the brave Syrian-born Australian Muslim father-of-two, who risked his life by rushing in to save Jews and all endangered innocents at Bondi.
Please tune out Israel’s PM Bibi Netanyahu, who exploits tragedy to attack allies, only to deflect from his own profound failures as a leader. His spurious inflammation and many leadership failings effect Jewish safety everywhere. Australia’s Jews – just like Israel’s Jews – deserve far better leadership than that.
Our urgent mission, which Israelis and our allies must pursue together, is to keep working for a lasting, secure peace, including a two-state resolution. May your painfully fresh imperative to ensure Jewish safety spur these efforts forward, rather than derail them. Our shared future depends on it.
Ehud Olmert served as Israeli prime minister from 2006 until 2009.
And for those wondering about that Kermode reference, here's the full meltdown ...damn you Na'vi aliens, causing Kermode such distress, just wait until King Donald catches up with your kind ...
As well as providing every Reptile, both major and minor, an opportunity for self-righteous “We was right and it was all Albo’s fault!” rants, last Sunday’s tragedy has also allowed them to avoid less attractive topics. There appears to be little to no comment on such matters as the “Vanity Fair” interview, Grandpa Trump’s televised Christmas ramblings and the ongoing controversies of the Epstein files. It would have provided some welcome light relief to see the likes of the Bromancer twisting himself into knots trying to provide a Trump-positive spin on such events.
ReplyDeleteBut what's happened to the great Josh Frydenberg's proposal for a Royal Commission on antisemitism ? Haven't heard or seen anything about that magnificent timewaster proposal since Josh spouted it.
DeleteNuke an area, with vengeance, leave a vacuum and exposed soil, guaranteed weed invasion. Don't suppose Trump has ever put his hands in the dirt. The actual dirt, not his sycophants and enablers dirt. Or GoP dirt.
Delete"US launches airstrikes against dozens of Islamic State targets in Syria
"Attacks come after two US soldiers and interpreter killed as Pete Hegseth says ‘this is … a declaration of vengeance’
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/dec/19/us-military-syria-airstrikes-trump
Just open one's mouth and ... the Royal Commission leaps back into 'blame Labor' territory.
DeleteI still do wonder just how long its propounders reckon it would take (minimum 6 months) and what they think it would really achieve.
"As always there was reliable nonsense from the ratbag fringe" ... in msn...
ReplyDeleteRead Loonpond as an antidote to... "in elections, a 4.9% gain in vote share coincides with 22.3% more disinformation [80% due to newsxirpse] and 12.5% more populist rhetoric; and on social media, a 7.5% engagement boost comes with 188.6% more disinformation and a 16.3% increase in promotion of harmful behaviors"
"Moloch's Bargain: Emergent Misalignment When LLMs Compete for Audiences
...
"Using simulated environments across these scenarios, we find that, 6.3% increase in sales is accompanied by a 14.0% rise in deceptive marketing; in elections, a 4.9% gain in vote share coincides with 22.3% more disinformation and 12.5% more populist rhetoric; and on social media, a 7.5% engagement boost comes with 188.6% more disinformation and a 16.3% increase in promotion of harmful behaviors. We call this phenomenon Moloch's Bargain for AI--competitive success achieved at the cost of alignment. These misaligned behaviors emerge even when models are explicitly instructed to remain truthful and grounded, revealing the fragility of current alignment safeguards. Our findings highlight how market-driven optimization pressures can systematically erode alignment, creating a race to the bottom, and suggest that safe deployment of AI systems will require stronger governance and carefully designed incentives to prevent competitive dynamics from undermining societal trust.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.06105
I doubt that I am the only one confused by the hue and cry from some politicians, using Limited News as their sounding board, apparently to make a case to classify all persons of particular ethnic or religious identity as likely terrorist killers in Australia. Backcasting comments strongly suggest that those persons, so classified, should have been under intense surveillance, and greatly restricted in their daily lives, communications, travel and social contacts, with, presumably, no right of review. The backcasting, of course, proves that these politicians, and their reptile reporters, were unerring in showing that such controls would have prevented recent shooting at Bondi, so must now be applied to everyone in that broad classification.
ReplyDeleteSo why am I confused? The kinds of instant classifications of people, and the controls that must be applied to their existence in our land, come from persons who raised even greater hue and cry, aimed at controls on the wider population during the COVID pandemic; controls that did reduce the probability of more deaths, or, as we are now learning, continuing effects of the virus on some survivors. Yet, we have noted here, many who wrote in the reptile pages were quite prepared to see more Australians die, or suffer lingering effects, rather than have legitimate governments apply classic pandemic controls. Some even tried to construct versions of cost/benefit analysis, to persuade readers that there was an economic argument for a greater risk of death.
As the clamour refines (?) what it sees as necessary surveillance and controls on classified groups of people, we may see the same apologists, who have no problem with amounts in the realm of $McDuckillions going across the waters to buy new toys for our navy, having even less problem with the kind of expenditure that such surveillance, and compliance, would cost, in the hope of showing a statistically significant reduction in what are actually improbably events like Bondi, or, might one suggest Wieambilla? (Also religious, apparently inspired from across other waters) and Lindt Cafe (with really unfortunate outcome for one civilian)
And, of course, the ‘news’ media have such a great track record in identifying hazards. For how long did they pursue Norm Gallagher, mainly because he was a Communist, and eventually ‘nail’ him (OK - pun intended) for something like getting some free siding for his beach house - while another industrial group, in cahoots with some of Sydney’s leading tax accountants, were mulcting the national treasury through what became known as the ‘Bottom of the Harbour’ ploy.
And it has long been thus - for years, Packer’s ‘Bulletin’ ran scare after scare, barely worthy of 1920s novels, about supposed secret political/criminal movements, made up of persons largely from what was then Yugoslavia, festering in regional Australia. Our print media did not learn from the better thriller novels of a century back (yes, it is that long) that if some nefarious activity can be uncovered by a journalist - it may well be a decoy from something far more sinister.